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Coyote (Ogilvie)

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Everything posted by Coyote (Ogilvie)

  1. Coyote (Ogilvie)

    The General 'Murican Politics Thread

    In the midst of all the shutdown talk, other things slipped through: namely, Pelosi has recently changed the rules of the House. The really huge change? Any bill that gets 290 votes - two-thirds - of the House have to be expedited to the floor if no committee has sent them to the floor. The Speaker is also required to put at least one of these bills up for a vote once a week while the House is in session. Pelosi just nuked the Hastert Rule. There is now a way to get bills to the House floor without the Speaker's approval. Remember that a lot of good bills that were crafted by pragmatic House and Senate members were sunk because the fringe of the ruling House party said no to them. Did you read the original post? This is assuming a situation where the wall is part of a compromise that gives legal status to the Dreamers. There is no easy way forward here, because someone is going to get pissed off no matter what is done. Not 0%, but minimal. In 2020, the Dems will go into the race with 47 seats. Realistically, they will lose Alabama. That means they would have to win all 4 swingy seats - Colorado, Maine, Arizona, and Iowa - to grab just 50 seats. They'd have to win the Vice Presidency on top of that. While there are a few other options - Montana, Georgia, North Carolina, West Virginia - those are tall orders, and any Democrat who takes those is likely to be very moderate. As for the swingy seats, Arizona still leans red, Iowa has been trending red, and Maine has a very popular incumbent in Susan Collins. The Democrats will need a blowout election in 2020 to take the Senate. Their best shot is actually in 2022, when a lot of Senators who came to power alongside Trump will be fighting for office. That's when Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida are up. There is a caveat here: this relies heavily on the Presidency still being Republican. If the Democrats win the 2020 race, they will most likely lose seats in the Senate in 2022. It's a bleak image overall. While there is a possibility for something crazy happening, the most reasonable expectation is Democrats will be locked out of the Senate for the foreseeable future. As it stands, the best they can hope for is to try and monopolize the Presidency, but every Democratic President will be like Obama and be hamstrung by a GOP Congress. That's not really the problem. The institutions as currently exist will favor the GOP having more or less permanent control of the Senate going forward, unless Dems find a strategy that helps them win red states. But that will likely involve compromises that will make the progressive wing of the Party bare its fangs. It's almost like people forget the American constitution system was built to force compromise.
  2. Coyote (Ogilvie)

    The General 'Murican Politics Thread

    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/424792-senate-immigration-talks-fall-apart While McConnell, Pelosi and Trump are all digging in their heels, rank and file Senators have been trying to do what they do best: being the most pragmatic branch of government. They've been trying to work out a proposal that would fund the wall and reopen the government, but would also give legal protection to the Dreamers. Sadly talks really didn't go anywhere because the belief was there's no way Pelosi will accept the wall, and there's no way Trump will accept giving legal status to Dreamers. Now while progressives might be quick to slam their fists on the table and shout "No compromise!!," it is important to note there are more DACA recipients than abortion recipients. The wall is ineffective at best and a monument to racism at worst, but being able to give hundreds of thousands of people peace of mind seems like something to make it tolerable. Also. Senate math. The GOP has good odds of a permanent Senate majority going forward, barring a periodic lapse in power. Tough compromises are going to be the way things are done in the future, unless one wants to do nothing at all.
  3. So I've been watching clips of Justice League: Gods and Monsters, and Hernan Guerra Superman is the best Superman. I MEAN JUST LOOK:

     

  4. My coyote side howls with laughter at the realization official Rough and Tumble merchandise could actually happen

    1. dbzfan7

      dbzfan7

      Your coyote side is welcome around our park apparently, to take care of racoons.

  5. Coyote (Ogilvie)

    The General 'Murican Politics Thread

    It's really a shame there's no path forward for ousting McConnell. The right of the party won't do it because they like him. The moderates won't do it because it'd undoubtedly lead to serious primary challenges on the basis they didn't support the President. And trying to go around him will invoke McConnell's wrath and ensure that Senator's policies get nowhere in the future. And they can't plot with Democrats to get rid of McConnell or limit his power because that would also lead to primary challenges. The wall is a powerful symbol on both sides of the aisle, and it's keeping Pelosi, McConnell and Trump from caving. McConnell's position as leader is pretty secure so he has no incentive to cave; tying his position to Trump's is actually a brilliant move. Trump and Pelosi, by contrast, both will be up again in 2020 and have maximum incentive to dig their heels in (especially since Pelosi already passed a bunch of bills). They're each going to wait to see who has the greatest chance of backlash before making a move. And honestly? It will likely be Trump. There are signs of an impending recession, and he will be the one that gets blamed for it no matter what. So he will cave because he needs to get to work on bills like infrastructure that he could use to win re-election. His path to the White House was very narrow, and with the Rust Belt having gone back to the Democrats in the recent cycle, he does not have as strong a hand as he thinks.
  6. Coyote (Ogilvie)

    The General 'Murican Politics Thread

    Julian Castro has officially joined the 2020 brawl. If elected, he would be the first Hispanic President. This candidate field being rich in minorities is extremely promising. It also has another benefit: there are so many "firsts" in play, that none of them can really hope to have an edge on the basis of minority status alone. Policy will be what really matters here. Which means candidates like Booker, Harris, Gabbard, etc. are in for a fun time, because they all have nasty things ready to crawl out at a moment's notice and harm their campaigns. I know Yang's odds are long because of his relative obscurity, but I really hope he mops the floor with all these neoliberal assclowns. He's Bernie on steroids: he could easily use his basic income as a weapon to steal tracts of Trump country concerned about the loss of jobs.
  7. Okay, so GE's rolling out merchandise of Jiren and Tournament of Power 17... now to pray the minor universes get some love too. AT LEAST GIMME BERGAMO MERCH.

    1. RedFox99

      RedFox99

      I'm honestly wondering if Toriyama or someone at Toei made Universe 9 for dem furries? 

  8. Coyote (Ogilvie)

    The General 'Murican Politics Thread

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/10/politics/democrats-dont-want-a-businessman/index.html Democrats have soundly rejected a businessman candidate in a round of polling, however, the caveat here is that they were introduced just as businessmen in the poll, with no details on their policies. While you have a former Republican like Bloomberg enjoying lots of name recognition and getting soundly rejected, the worst performing candidate is Andrew Yang. Yang is an Asian-American in his mid-40s. His campaign pitch is focused on establishing a universal basic income. While he claims no ideology, his policies fall firmly on the left. He wants universal healthcare, $1,000/month given to every American, limits on tuition charges, more funding for public schools, cameras on every police officer, and the IRS to stop auditing poorer Americans. Regarding the economic issues of Trump country, Yang would also direct the IRS to expand tax deductions for Americans who relocate for work, while also going after opioid manufacturers and prescribers to limit their destruction. He has not held any formal political office, but... he shows a lot more promise than a lot of Democrats. He also doesn't have the age problem progressive leaders like Sanders do.
  9. So I finished Winds of Change's current Early Access build. I believe the game is 2/3 done? For $19.99 I got 15.5 hours of gameplay on my first playthrough, and I'm currently dating 5 people at once.

    1. DreamSaturn

      DreamSaturn

      I believe there's a name for people like that. :P

  10. [video]

    1. Why

    2. Why does this work so well

    1. Yeow

      Yeow

      there's a tumblr post somewhere that has someone mentioning that they put this mashup in their music playlist for the store they work at

      and they were laughing at customers literally stopping in confusion when they tried listening to the song

      best read 10/10

  11. Folks may think it's odd we're decorating our tree today, but we keep the decorations up until February 2nd!

  12. The Batman Beyond intro, but with Universe 9 characters

  13. Coyote (Ogilvie)

    Dragon Ball (Warning: Untagged Spoilers)

    Indeed, it'll get nice and confusing keeping these two anime separate. Particularly since with this one, they're outright saying it takes place after the most recent arc in both Super and Heroes.
  14. Coyote (Ogilvie)

    Dragon Ball (Warning: Untagged Spoilers)

    The topic has "untagged spoilers" for a reason. It's Super Dragon Ball Heroes so who knows, they do all kinds of time and reality warping stuff to bring everyone together in crossover stuff. Though I'd assume this plays into how the villains would even be able to contemplate killing the Omni-King; they must have some ability to bypass Erase. If so, that gives them the power they need to actually threaten him. Zen-oh wouldn't know where to begin with defending himself if he couldn't just blink someone out of existence.
  15. Wonder how Super Dragon Ball Heroes' Multiverse War arc will go. Though it's inevitable it'll probably just be a Universe 6, 7 and 11 thing. So basically the Tournament getting repeated. They better give some love to Universe 8 or something to keep it fresh.

    1. Coyote (Ogilvie)

      Coyote (Ogilvie)

      And yes, of Universes 1, 12, 5 and 8 it's obvious why I'm most interested in 8.

      I have a very one-track mind.

  16. Coyote (Ogilvie)

    Dragon Ball (Warning: Untagged Spoilers)

    Looks like for the Dragon Ball Heroes anime, the next storyline is called "Dawn of War" and involves a conflict that ravages the whole multiverse as the new bad guys try to murder the Omni-King. Also hey Zamasu comes back for it. We might get an answer on whether Zen-oh is invulnerable or not from this. Everyone just assumes he is because of the Erase power, but it needs to be remembered he's not using energy the same way as everyone else. His power is on a whole other level. It's entirely possible he could be easily killed, but no one has tried it because he can end you with zero effort. Those bodyguards make more sense if you don't think of his Erase power as flowing from a power level, but just being a special ability. In the original, the subs translated it as "uhhh, nobody besides us!" Needless to say, Basil's English rendition is hilarious by comparison since it's so dumb.
  17. Coyote (Ogilvie)

    The General 'Murican Politics Thread

    From my understanding, Trump refusing to sign any spending bill that doesn't include the money for the wall. While the House has put the funding in, the Senate could not get enough votes in favor of it. So both Houses had to adjourn without passing a spending bill, thus shutting down the government. Unless Trump caves or a lot of Republicans flip in the House, this shutdown could very well last until the Dems take the House in January. Any bill without a wall will need two-thirds in both chambers to override his veto. There's also the usual solution to this problem: a more or less unanimous resolution to stay the course and keep spending as is until another spending bill is approved.
  18. Coyote (Ogilvie)

    Dragon Ball (Warning: Untagged Spoilers)

    I'm so happy they changed the lines for the dub, rather than going with the original translations. Basil's such a dork now because of it, and it makes him so much more precious to me.
  19. I'm glad they made Basil such a dork in the Funimation dub

    dorky basil.png

  20. "APATHY."
    "GREED."
    "CORRUPTION."
    "POWER."
    [Batman appears on screen] "HOPE."

  21. Rediscovered Markiplier's pro-trans Tweet today and it's still wonderful to see him voicing his opinion and most of his fans backing him on it

    1. Blacklightning

      Blacklightning

      Real talk I don't always like Mark's content but at the same time he's the only multi-million sub gaming Youtuber that doesn't seem to have a super dumb controversy attached to him

      And some part of me thinks it's just a matter of time but for the life of me I can't picture it, he's too nice for that

  22. Q: Freddy, Chica, and Bonnie's favorite food is pizza. But what does a pirate like Foxy prefer to eat?

    A: Night guARRRRRRds!

  23. Coyote (Ogilvie)

    General British Politics Thread.

    Cameron's also gone. Sucks for the Leave folks, but that's the truth. If he wanted to make sure the vote was honored, he should have stayed on board. You not too recently had a general election where the Conservatives saw their seats shrink to a point they had to form a majority with a party with terrorist ties. Your democracy still has plenty of meaning with or without this referendum. You want to talk referenda, the fact the British people voted against the Government should speak for something. While Labour timidly calls for continuing to pursue Brexit in its official documents, they're arguing for Brexit Lite, where Britain keeps all the benefits of the EU but can claim it is no longer in it (lol). Possibly? Though that's not disrupting the status quo so I don't think the situation is comparable. Indeed, it isn't. In systems that do two rounds of voting for big policies, there's only a second round to change the status quo, not to keep it. It's a mechanic built to prevent rapid change. Later decisions overrule prior ones. It's the central principle of law. As for why they should honor it: Parliament has the guns, not them. If the Leave camp was that angry, they would need to voice their preference in general elections. It's not my fault the people who voted Leave will show up to a referendum but not a general election, where actual power brokers are chosen. This is a particularly acute mishap considering Parliament's decision is what matters. Nothing is binding on a sovereign parliament. If parliament displeases you, change it. If that's not enough, you draw up a new governing document abolishing parliamentary sovereignty. Whatever you do, just don't make your Constitution like ours. Changing the status quo is fundamentally different from keeping it. Particularly when there's a ton of misinformation going around. This is a false equivalence. My principle is to accept legal customs, because those are what actually structure our societies. The British constitution has firmly established parliamentary sovereignty. If the Leave camp are angry at the fact parliamentary sovereignty, a system they would accept in any other situation, does not serve their whims... am I the one is unprincipled, or are they? I absolutely loathe Donald Trump. I despise the Electoral College. I still accept that, under the terms of our governing documents, he is the President of the United States and has the constitutional powers that come with it.
  24. >sees headline about Trump Foundation being forced to dissolve due to a lawsuit

    >immediately starts humming the track that plays when Zen-Oh wipes out universes

  25. Coyote (Ogilvie)

    General British Politics Thread.

    That would actually be consistent with the doctrine of parliamentary supremacy; nothing is final, and nothing can bind Parliament. Technically Parliament can invalidate whatever it so pleases. The only restriction on it is custom. The referendum was non-binding, and it will always be non-binding unless the UK gets rid of parliamentary sovereignty. Considering the British state has not done away with voting rights, free speech, and all that good stuff despite a technical power to do so, I don't think it follows that not honoring a referendum will lead to anything nasty. The British Constitution has subtle brilliance in that, recognizing all constitutions only have power because people agree they have power, it avoids being hard to change. If the UK public wished to call for another vote on the referendum, it is absolutely valid to call another one. I would note this is a principle enshrined in constitutions around the world, that referenda, constitutional amendments, etc. are not valid unless they are approved in two separate votes. This is a recognition of how many factors can influence a vote immediately preceding the vote, so having two votes mitigates this risk. Consider how many close elections possibly would have changed with a do-over; indeed, a lot of referendum questions have failed on their second try. If anything, multiple votes honors democracy, because it gives the public multiple chances to voice their opinion, ensuring the final course of action is the right one. Now sure, one could go the rugged individualist approach and put the burden on the masses to get the decision right the first time but... that runs contrary to how very flawed a lot of human beings are. When it comes to managing a state, it seems a good idea to build in protections against popular miscalculations. And if not honoring the referendum is that big of a deal? Politicians can be voted out. Democracy is not dead until the masses lose the power of altering the legislature.
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