Legosi (Tani Coyote)

I give props to Boris Johnson on one thing: logical consistency. He believes that all referendum results should be permanent. Scotland voted to stay in the UK in 2014, and the UK to leave the EU in 2016. People's preferences do not change at all in light of new information and changing circumstances, as you know, so it's only right that all votes have permanent effects. Though I must ask Mr. Johnson one question: why stop there? The UK could save considerable amounts of energy and resources if it was to simply suspend all future elections. The people have spoken with this 2019 result, after all, and there's no better way to ensure a smooth, permanent Brexit than a permanent Conservative majority. In all seriousness, Johnson is the embodiment of English imperialism and I wish the Scottish full luck in getting a second referendum. The SNP focuses on peaceful secession, but I will not be surprised if a militant group eventually arises as a result of the Tory desire to maintain the British Empire. What disgusts me is that the United States is likely to back English imperialism over the right to self-determination the people of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales are being denied.

From what I heard, besides a missile test, many think the real "present" is North Korea taking denuclearization off the table because Trump looks vulnerable politically and so is in no real position to try and intimidate North Korea anymore. I assume Trump would love this because he can just smear anyone who doesn't plan to pull the lever for him as selling out to Kim. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html Primary polls are in again, though there understandably weren't many taken over the past week. Nobody seems to have seen any real impact from impeachment or the debate, but we do have one small piece of big news: Julian Castro has dropped from the race. He was polling around 1%. I guess his attempt to paint the whole primary as being about racism didn't go so well for him. He had interesting ideas on how to handle immigration. Beyond that I'm happy he's gone. EDIT: It looks like what actually happened was for whatever reason, he was not in some polls. Either way, there have been reports of him slashing staff in some states so I think he is on his way out. And with the first primaries only weeks away, it's not a moment too soon.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html We haven't had any polls since the debate and impeachment. It's going to be interesting to see if there are any shifts. From what data points we have, impeachment tends to uplift candidates who are more conciliatory. I can definitely see someone more soft spoken like Yang getting a boost from the tension of impeachment, particularly since he's commented on Twitter that he wishes Congress could make bipartisan deals to help ordinary people rather than setting up a cagematch to try and remove a President who quite possibly will be leaving in a year anyway. Now as for overall trends (looking at the past 6 months): Biden and Bernie are looking to be the clear winners of this race. While Biden slipped early on as it became apparent what his ideas were and who he was up against, he's managed to stay stable around 27% for months. Over the same period, Bernie has seen a bit of an uptick, and stabilized around 17%. Berniecrats are hoping he'll outperform the polls by a large margin again like in the 2016 race, but I caution that this is a very different race; he is no longer the protest vote like he was, and his ideas are no longer quite as novel. Warren, who once looked like the clear counter to Biden, has sunk from her massive 27% to a mere 15%. Her numbers are all over the place, even if she's still stronger than she was 6 months ago. However, she still has the numbers to remain a heavyweight, provided she can do well in the first primaries. Buttegieg peaked at 11% earlier this month, but he has sunken to 8% recently, so he's no longer looking like the guy who will usurp Warren for third place. However, he still has strong leads in early states like Iowa, so he's probably going to stay in the race for a long time, at least unless he gets crushed on Super Tuesday (the day where several states hold their primaries at once) in March. Super Tuesday brings us to Bloomberg, currently polling 5% nationwide. He is ignoring the early primaries, and his plan is to sink a huge amount of money into the Super Tuesday states. It may possibly allow him some leverage, but it's more likely he'll end up a spoiler. It just remains: a spoiler for whom? Any candidate he sinks below 15% is going to be ruined, as they will not be entitled to any delegates. Other comments: Yang is continuing to be surprisingly strong in his 3-4% range. However, unless he gets some more support, I can see him and Klobuchar fizzling out shortly. Booker and Castro are just kind of there at the bottom of the pack, crying about racism (I guess Yang is white apparently) as they continue to sink into obscurity, arguing Harris was forced out by racism rather than maybe the fact she sucks at managing money. While the field's leadership has become less diverse on race, let's remind Booker and Castro we still have a lot of minority candidates in play here. Biden would be the second Roman Catholic President, Sanders would be the first Jewish President, Warren and Klobuchar would be the first female President, Buttegieg would be the first openly gay President, and Yang would be the first Asian American. Honestly, Booker and Castro just come off as babies angry they were denied the chance to be the second Obama in a race where pretty much every candidate represents a minority group. *** Another effect generally seen is impeachment proceedings tend to hurt a President's numbers with independents and swing voters while firing up the President's base. There's actually enormous humor in both sides claiming the impeachment "guaranteed" one result or the other. In truth, I still think that for everything, Trump's re-election is a coin toss. His approval has sagged... but Florida has gone Republican two elections in a row, and Wisconsin was much harder for Democrats in 2018 than the other Rust Belt states. He only needs to win those two states unless Democrats pull some magic and somehow steal Arizona or something. Two things that might complicate Florida in 2020: it is not only voting on a ballot initiative to raise the minimum wage to $15 (though I will not a lot of voters are incoherent and do not understand that the Republicans want to kill the minimum wage, so will happily vote GOP while also saying yes to wage increases), but you also have the 1.5 million people who will be enfranchised in 2020 versus 2018, who likely have a Democratic lean. I anticipate Florida will be a nailbiter as always. Some other things that could make this race weird: with Christianity Today coming out against Trump (and being accused of being far left because of it in one of his insane Tweets; consider, he implied Pence is far left in the same Tweet) could shake some evangelicals away from him. In addition, that the new defense bill granted amnesty to 4,000 Liberians has apparently angered a lot of his base. Shocker: once again, the thought of giving citizenship to people who aren't white is what finally gets his base angry at him. Breitbart was angry, certainly, but they refrained from calling him "Amnesty Don" unlike the last time.

Honestly, from everything I hear, it sounds like Corbyn is going to keep this from going in a good direction. I hear a persistent frustration is he's basically the obnoxious centrist who won't give a clear position on Brexit, and it makes him and Labour look really bad. Of course, a lot can change during a campaign (May sure got a surprise when she held that election with good polling numbers only to lose seats), but the likely scenario is Conservatives come out ahead and this moves forward. Now unless the Conservatives get a super clear majority yet their plans still fall apart due to infighting, (Lord knows stateside how hilariously bad the right wing Party's grand plans collapsed once they actually got back in power) I just hope that Scotland, Northern Ireland, etc. are all given a choice to break off and do their own thing. The Scottish people in particular voted against economic uncertainty, yet England gave them it anyway. So I say let them have another chance to make their own destiny.

Democrats took the Kentucky Governorship and both legislative chambers in Virginia on Tuesday. Kentucky is likely one of those fluke elections where the Republican is so bad the red state picks a Democrat (see also, the Dems taking Kansas in 2018 and Missouri in 2012), but Virginia's trifecta is huge. This puts Democrats in a position to revenge gerrymander (making a House majority in 2020 a little more likely), but they can also now repeal the work requirements for Medicaid that the GOP forced through in the previous session (the only way to expand Medicaid in the state was to compromise on work requirements). https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/06/politics/jeff-sessions-senate-run-alabama/index.html The 2020 Senate race is about to get interesting. Jeff Sessions will be running for his old Senate seat in Alabama. This will put him against the other establishment GOP candidate and far right Roy Moore. Unless the establishment vote comes out hard, there's a serious possibility that it will be split between Sessions and his establishment rival, Roy Moore will secure the nomination, and then he runs against Jones in the general. Now, last election, Jones had the benefit that it was a special election without Trump at the top of the ticket. But Roy Moore getting the nomination again would greatly increase Democrats' chances of keeping that seat. That's the interesting thing. We know from sources within the Party that large numbers of Republicans would be happy to impeach and remove him... if the votes were secret. Under the current circumstances, however, going against Trump is a good way to ensure one is thrown out of power in the next primary election. Republicans can probably survive a general challenge, but primaries are a whole other ball game, where they need to win the support of the conservative diehards to stay in. Consider: there used to be many Republicans who would sit down with Democrats on gun control. Lobbyists like the NRA ensured they were all kicked out in primaries. And that's why the GOP's rank and file tread carefully with working with Democrats now. Really, there has never been a stronger case for term limits than politicking like this. Go figure, that was one of Trump's few proposals that was actually pretty cool. Of course it was the one he stopped caring about once he was in. Failing that, making impeachment and removal votes secret would also be a path to take. Now some fear this would make Congress supreme but... honestly? I'm all for it. The historical record for Presidentialism is not that good, so I don't mind weakening the executive in this country.

Well the furry jokes are gonna abound with that FNAF World one. ...also I'm 99% sure that's a female version of Twisted Wolf. Wolf really wants to steal Foxy's theme, doesn't he?

And the ride continues. Scottgames has updated with a new teaser image for a 2020 title, it seems. Looks like Chica, Freddy, Foxy and... someone new. Presumably a canine based on the pointy ears. But they don't have a tail like Foxy.