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Legosi (Tani Coyote)

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Posts posted by Legosi (Tani Coyote)


  1. I give props to Boris Johnson on one thing: logical consistency. He believes that all referendum results should be permanent. Scotland voted to stay in the UK in 2014, and the UK to leave the EU in 2016. People's preferences do not change at all in light of new information and changing circumstances, as you know, so it's only right that all votes have permanent effects.

    Though I must ask Mr. Johnson one question: why stop there? The UK could save considerable amounts of energy and resources if it was to simply suspend all future elections. The people have spoken with this 2019 result, after all, and there's no better way to ensure a smooth, permanent Brexit than a permanent Conservative majority.

    In all seriousness, Johnson is the embodiment of English imperialism and I wish the Scottish full luck in getting a second referendum. The SNP focuses on peaceful secession, but I will not be surprised if a militant group eventually arises as a result of the Tory desire to maintain the British Empire. What disgusts me is that the United States is likely to back English imperialism over the right to self-determination the people of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales are being denied.


  2. From what I heard, besides a missile test, many think the real "present" is North Korea taking denuclearization off the table because Trump looks vulnerable politically and so is in no real position to try and intimidate North Korea anymore.

    I assume Trump would love this because he can just smear anyone who doesn't plan to pull the lever for him as selling out to Kim.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

    Primary polls are in again, though there understandably weren't many taken over the past week. Nobody seems to have seen any real impact from impeachment or the debate, but we do have one small piece of big news: Julian Castro has dropped from the race. He was polling around 1%.

    I guess his attempt to paint the whole primary as being about racism didn't go so well for him.

    He had interesting ideas on how to handle immigration. Beyond that I'm happy he's gone.

    EDIT: It looks like what actually happened was for whatever reason, he was not in some polls. Either way, there have been reports of him slashing staff in some states so I think he is on his way out. And with the first primaries only weeks away, it's not a moment too soon.


  3. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

    We haven't had any polls since the debate and impeachment. It's going to be interesting to see if there are any shifts. From what data points we have, impeachment tends to uplift candidates who are more conciliatory. I can definitely see someone more soft spoken like Yang getting a boost from the tension of impeachment, particularly since he's commented on Twitter that he wishes Congress could make bipartisan deals to help ordinary people rather than setting up a cagematch to try and remove a President who quite possibly will be leaving in a year anyway.

    Now as for overall trends (looking at the past 6 months): Biden and Bernie are looking to be the clear winners of this race. While Biden slipped early on as it became apparent what his ideas were and who he was up against, he's managed to stay stable around 27% for months. Over the same period, Bernie has seen a bit of an uptick, and stabilized around 17%. Berniecrats are hoping he'll outperform the polls by a large margin again like in the 2016 race, but I caution that this is a very different race; he is no longer the protest vote like he was, and his ideas are no longer quite as novel.

    Warren, who once looked like the clear counter to Biden, has sunk from her massive 27% to a mere 15%. Her numbers are all over the place, even if she's still stronger than she was 6 months ago. However, she still has the numbers to remain a heavyweight, provided she can do well in the first primaries.

    Buttegieg peaked at 11% earlier this month, but he has sunken to 8% recently, so he's no longer looking like the guy who will usurp Warren for third place. However, he still has strong leads in early states like Iowa, so he's probably going to stay in the race for a long time, at least unless he gets crushed on Super Tuesday (the day where several states hold their primaries at once) in March.

    Super Tuesday brings us to Bloomberg, currently polling 5% nationwide. He is ignoring the early primaries, and his plan is to sink a huge amount of money into the Super Tuesday states. It may possibly allow him some leverage, but it's more likely he'll end up a spoiler. It just remains: a spoiler for whom? Any candidate he sinks below 15% is going to be ruined, as they will not be entitled to any delegates.

    Other comments: Yang is continuing to be surprisingly strong in his 3-4% range. However, unless he gets some more support, I can see him and Klobuchar fizzling out shortly.

    Booker and Castro are just kind of there at the bottom of the pack, crying about racism (I guess Yang is white apparently) as they continue to sink into obscurity, arguing Harris was forced out by racism rather than maybe the fact she sucks at managing money.

    While the field's leadership has become less diverse on race, let's remind Booker and Castro we still have a lot of minority candidates in play here. Biden would be the second Roman Catholic President, Sanders would be the first Jewish President, Warren and Klobuchar would be the first female President, Buttegieg would be the first openly gay President, and Yang would be the first Asian American.

    Honestly, Booker and Castro just come off as babies angry they were denied the chance to be the second Obama in a race where pretty much every candidate represents a minority group.

    ***

    Another effect generally seen is impeachment proceedings tend to hurt a President's numbers with independents and swing voters while firing up the President's base. There's actually enormous humor in both sides claiming the impeachment "guaranteed" one result or the other.

    In truth, I still think that for everything, Trump's re-election is a coin toss. His approval has sagged... but Florida has gone Republican two elections in a row, and Wisconsin was much harder for Democrats in 2018 than the other Rust Belt states. He only needs to win those two states unless Democrats pull some magic and somehow steal Arizona or something.

    Two things that might complicate Florida in 2020: it is not only voting on a ballot initiative to raise the minimum wage to $15 (though I will not a lot of voters are incoherent and do not understand that the Republicans want to kill the minimum wage, so will happily vote GOP while also saying yes to wage increases), but you also have the 1.5 million people who will be enfranchised in 2020 versus 2018, who likely have a Democratic lean. I anticipate Florida will be a nailbiter as always.

    Some other things that could make this race weird: with Christianity Today coming out against Trump (and being accused of being far left because of it in one of his insane Tweets; consider, he implied Pence is far left in the same Tweet) could shake some evangelicals away from him. In addition, that the new defense bill granted amnesty to 4,000 Liberians has apparently angered a lot of his base.

    Shocker: once again, the thought of giving citizenship to people who aren't white is what finally gets his base angry at him. Breitbart was angry, certainly, but they refrained from calling him "Amnesty Don" unlike the last time.


  4. Honestly, from everything I hear, it sounds like Corbyn is going to keep this from going in a good direction. I hear a persistent frustration is he's basically the obnoxious centrist who won't give a clear position on Brexit, and it makes him and Labour look really bad.

    Of course, a lot can change during a campaign (May sure got a surprise when she held that election with good polling numbers only to lose seats), but the likely scenario is Conservatives come out ahead and this moves forward.

    Now unless the Conservatives get a super clear majority yet their plans still fall apart due to infighting, (Lord knows stateside how hilariously bad the right wing Party's grand plans collapsed once they actually got back in power) I just hope that Scotland, Northern Ireland, etc. are all given a choice to break off and do their own thing. The Scottish people in particular voted against economic uncertainty, yet England gave them it anyway. So I say let them have another chance to make their own destiny.


  5. Democrats took the Kentucky Governorship and both legislative chambers in Virginia on Tuesday.

    Kentucky is likely one of those fluke elections where the Republican is so bad the red state picks a Democrat (see also, the Dems taking Kansas in 2018 and Missouri in 2012), but Virginia's trifecta is huge. This puts Democrats in a position to revenge gerrymander (making a House majority in 2020 a little more likely), but they can also now repeal the work requirements for Medicaid that the GOP forced through in the previous session (the only way to expand Medicaid in the state was to compromise on work requirements).

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/06/politics/jeff-sessions-senate-run-alabama/index.html

    The 2020 Senate race is about to get interesting. Jeff Sessions will be running for his old Senate seat in Alabama. This will put him against the other establishment GOP candidate and far right Roy Moore.

    Unless the establishment vote comes out hard, there's a serious possibility that it will be split between Sessions and his establishment rival, Roy Moore will secure the nomination, and then he runs against Jones in the general.

    Now, last election, Jones had the benefit that it was a special election without Trump at the top of the ticket. But Roy Moore getting the nomination again would greatly increase Democrats' chances of keeping that seat.

    On 11/3/2019 at 6:17 AM, Conquering Storm’s Servant said:

    These Republicans do realize they don’t have to go down with Trump, do they?

    They’re part of a co-equal branch—if he does something they know is wrong, they can reel him in, Twitter Tantrum be damned.

    That's the interesting thing. We know from sources within the Party that large numbers of Republicans would be happy to impeach and remove him... if the votes were secret.

    Under the current circumstances, however, going against Trump is a good way to ensure one is thrown out of power in the next primary election. Republicans can probably survive a general challenge, but primaries are a whole other ball game, where they need to win the support of the conservative diehards to stay in. Consider: there used to be many Republicans who would sit down with Democrats on gun control. Lobbyists like the NRA ensured they were all kicked out in primaries. And that's why the GOP's rank and file tread carefully with working with Democrats now.

    Really, there has never been a stronger case for term limits than politicking like this. Go figure, that was one of Trump's few proposals that was actually pretty cool. Of course it was the one he stopped caring about once he was in.

    Failing that, making impeachment and removal votes secret would also be a path to take. Now some fear this would make Congress supreme but... honestly? I'm all for it. The historical record for Presidentialism is not that good, so I don't mind weakening the executive in this country.


  6. Representative Swalwell has dropped out of the race, citing that candidates should be realistic about their chances and focus on serving their constituents. He will be running for the House again.

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/08/politics/tom-steyer-2020-presidential-bid-staffers/index.html

    Meanwhile, Tom Steyer, a billionaire most known for bankrolling efforts to impeach Trump, is planning on announcing a Presidential bid of his own.

    I'd like if everyone polling 1% or less after the first debate would just drop, honestly. This field needs to consolidate to increase the odds of beating Trump.


  7. 47 minutes ago, 8ther said:

    When does primary voting begin in South Carolina?

    Scheduled for February.

    It's gonna be a long 8 months.

    The good news is, after this round of debates, it sounds like the next round requires 2% polling rather than the 1% this round had. Which means we should start seeing candidates dropping as they're forced out of the spotlight.

    God help us if they all wait until the first primary before dropping. If they don't do good in this debate they really need to go away so we can start narrowing down the field and getting an idea who will take on Trump.


  8. Well round one of the debates was interesting. Warren was allowed to have both the opening and closing statement. She started off pretty strong, and while she seems a little weak on policies like how to handle Mitch McConnell and gun reform, she was a solid candidate at the start.

    Some basic takeaways:

    -Booker, Beto, and Castro are desperately trying to get the Hispanic vote, because they kept randomly switching into Spanish during the debate. Clearly, they did not learn anything from how Tim Kaine pissed a lot of Hispanic voters off because "I can speak Spanish!" does not actually impress rank and file Hispanic voters and instead speaks to a very narrow understanding of issues facing those voters.

    -Booker and Castro both seem in favor of nuking the 60-seat filibuster to pass gun reform, and probably anything else. Booker specifically mentions races in South Carolina and Iowa.

    -On healthcare, only two candidates said they would replace all private insurance with Medicare for All: Warren and De Blasio. In Warren's case, she demonized private insurance as an industry that gambles with people's lives, since its goal is to maximize fees and minimize how much it pays out.

    -Beto was basically getting destroyed all night. When he said he supports keeping private healthcare and public to create "choice," De Blasio interjected that millions of people do not have healthcare in our current "choice" based system. When he said he supports keeping immigration law the way it is to prevent human trafficking, Castro called him out, saying there are sections of the code that already cover that. Overall, while everyone expected Beto to come out as Warren's main rival, he looked pretty bad.

    -Tim Ryan kept going on about the need to funnel money into the Rust Belt to bring back manufacturing jobs. Elizabeth Warren called him out on traditional attempts to revive American industry, saying it's almost always "let companies do what they want," and emphasized that American manufacturing should be based on leadership in renewable energy (several other Dems share this view).

    -When asked about the greatest geopolitical threat to the United States, most Democrats mentioned climate change, Iran, or China. Jay Inslee went "Donald Trump."

    -Castro spoke for the need to have social justice as well as economic justice (rebutting Amy Klobuchar), and how he wants to decriminalize illegal entry and make it a civil issue. He wants a Marshall Plan for Latin America so people won't feel the need to migrate to the US.

    -Klobuchar is painting herself as the more realistic left candidate, outright saying she isn't promising as much, e.g. she only wants community college to be free.

    -Class solidarity: De Blasio called for the Democratic Party to remember its working class roots, while Booker, Castro and Warren basically all favored a 50 state strategy to keep the Senate.

    -Taxation: De Blasio said all Democrats should support a 70% marginal tax rate on the highest income bracket. OH DAMN.

    There's a lot of content in 2 hours, but the winners I'm seeing are:

    Warren's powerful opening and closing statements (regarding American inequality and how she's only on that stage because she got a government-funded education, and wants it an option for everybody) make her a clear winner.

    Booker and Castro both seem very strong.

    De Blasio looks like he will have very strong left wing credentials that could help him last.

    Moving forward: Warren, Castro, Booker, De Blasio

    Not moving forward: Ryan, Gabbard, Beto, Inslee, Delaney, Klobuchar


  9. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/20/roy-moore-will-run-for-senate-in-alabama-after-trump-objects.html

    As we count down the days to Democratic debates on Wednesday and Thursday, Alabama has given the Dems a gift: Roy Moore is officially running for the Senate seat again, and he still has wide grassroots support.

    If he takes that nomination, Doug Jones' chances of keeping Alabama for Democrats next year are hugely improved.


  10. https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/18/politics/democratic-debates-2020-placement/index.html

    We know the center candidates in the two debates. One night will have Warren and O'Rourke as the candidates in the center, the other will have Biden and Sanders. The center position is assumed to get the most time.

    Biden's in for a fun ride. Not only will he have to worry about Sanders, but Yang is also part of the debate that night. He is going to look SO BORING compared to two candidates who radically want to alter America's economy.


  11. The FNAF movie might be languishing in development Hell because Scott keeps rejecting every idea put before him, but... there's this.

    There is a rumor that it developed out of an early draft of the FNAF film that was rejected, but whether that's true or not, well... my God, it exists. And since everyone is comparing it to FNAF, I figured it appropriate to link it here.

    I feel sorry for all the 70s and 80s kids who grew up with the actual show. :P

    This is both an extremely bad and an extremely brilliant idea.


  12. https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/29/politics/roy-moore-alabama-donald-trump-jr/index.html

    Roy Moore and Trump Jr. got into it over Twitter. While Moore's since deleted his Tweets, I can't help but think Jr. just made the Alabama Senate race personal. And Moore is the favorite for the GOP nomination based on polling.

    And Roy Moore being the GOP nominee is the best chance Democrats have of taking that seat for 6 years. Jones has defected to the GOP on a lot of things, but he's also stuck with the Democrats on a lot of things too. He is the best option Democrats will get from Alabama.

    Where Moore is likely to get swat on the ass is the fact Republican voters are actually very good at rejecting candidates with serious ethical failings. It's why we all too often get Democrats who suddenly win a red seat, but then immediately lose it next race. Republican voters tend punish (non-Presidential) candidates for sexual immorality in particular.


  13. http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/nevada-governor-vetoes-national-popular-vote-bill.html

    Nevada Dem. Governor Sisolak has vetoed the state's bill that would have added Nevada to the National Popular Vote Compact. He cited the argument that Nevada would simply be ignored in national elections because it is small, whereas right now it benefits from being a swing state.

    It's also an argument that falls apart under increased scrutiny: people scream about Texas and California and New York, but those large states are hardly hive minds, and their political minorities will come out in full force if the national popular vote becomes a thing. Candidates will have to cast a wide net to win a truly national election.


  14. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/443715-maine-senate-passes-bill-that-would-give-electoral-college-votes-to

    So in the span of a month, three states - Nevada, Oregon, and Maine - have all passed the National Popular Vote Compact in one house of their legislatures.

    Holy crap, this might actually happen before the 2020 election.

    Ten bucks says the Supreme Court decides to "stay" the legislation though.

    Even though the Constitution is VERY clear states can do whatever they want with their electoral votes.


  15. https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/15/politics/bill-weld-2020-trump/index.html

    While the Democratic camp is currently overrun by opportunists, the Republican camp just got interesting. Former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld has announced he will be running for the Presidency on the GOP ticket, making him Trump's first primary challenger.

    Weld is a more libertarian flavor of Republican, having been consistently pro-choice, pro-marijuana legalization and pro-LGBT, while being fiscally conservative. He is confident he could take the nomination with support from independents. As a cherry on top, were Weld to become President, he would steal Trump's title of being the oldest inaugurated President, being 75 on Inauguration Day.

    Weld realistically has a tough primary ahead of him as most conservatives solidly back Trump, and no President has been outvoted in the primaries since the 1880s. But he could still give Trump a tough time if he draws in independent votes, and Presidents who face a tough primary have good odds of losing re-election, as happened with Ford, Carter, and H.W. Bush.


  16. Trump is out praising Robert E. Lee again.

    Remember, any time someone praises Lee or the Confederacy's officers, ask them about General Longstreet.

    The fact they either don't know who he is, or assume he's the reason Lee lost, will serve to confirm the racist background of the neo-Confederate movement.

    For the record, General Longstreet joined the Republican Party (the Party of the North at the time) post-war, supported Reconstruction, and led a black militia against a white supremacist mob on top of it. If there is any Confederate officer deserving of praise, it would be him. But of course, he receives practically none.

    Goes to show what neo-Confederate thinking is really about.


  17. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/21/upshot/home-ownership-nimby-bipartisan.html?module=inline

    So Ben Carson finally had a good idea, and wanted to change federal housing policies so communities get funding cut if they don't get rid of tight zoning laws, veto power given to homeowners to block new development, etc. It's a policy in many urban areas that has strangled the ability to build new homes, which is why places like California are so ridiculously expensive (though I'm sure Carson and co. would claim it's the taxes, but it's actually a mix of taxes, market pressure, and wealthy people restricting housing). There's a bipartisan opposition to it... among well-to-do people.

    This, folks, is why the victory of the left will not come from the suburbs. The urban and rural working classes must find their common ground and join forces to destroy an oppressive elite. Social justice and economic justice must go together for full effectiveness. Economic justice without social justice creates a welfare state where only the majority group is taken care of. Social justice without economic justice creates a system where there's still enormous poverty, but hey, at least half the world's richest people are women of color.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/23/upshot/2020-democrats-court-renters.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab

    Meanwhile, Senators Warren, Harris, and Booker are all pushing for rent reform. Harris and Booker have introduced bills to create a tax credit for renters. You know the right is running scared now because Democrats are becoming more and more openly left on economics. Rent control. Free tuition. Universal healthcare.

    See the prior paragraph though. For left populism to win, it's going to need a strong base of rural supporters in order to get the necessary Senate seats. Democrats would do well to really target red states for left wing ballot initiatives. When there's no R or D on a choice, "conservative" voters are very good at passing things like universal healthcare or raising the minimum wage. And as red state voters put these things into practice, Republican politicians will feel the squeeze and be crazy to vote against them.


  18. Re: entertainment. Each piece of intellectual property is its own monopoly. So there's not really any anti-monopoly legislation that's valid for that element. There is copyright expiration, though a lot of legal books make jokes about how copyright protection lasts as long as Disney wants. Indeed, it's only in recent years politicians went "okay enough is enough" and stopped letting Disney continue to extend copyright protection.

    Re: the media itself. Similar problem as entertainment. Each channel is its own brand. Never mind that so long as quality does not suffer too much, the anti-trust argument is not as strong.

    There are concerns about freedom of the press being impacted, but research shows most people don't tune into news networks to be informed. Plus in today's age, it's so easy to start up an indie outlet that it's harder to cry "monopoly!"

    You can, quite possibly, start up your own news channel on Youtube and gain millions of followers. You probably can't start up your own oil, steel, or car company.


  19. 57 minutes ago, KHCast said:

    Apparently yeah there were no new indictments, and the media seems to be going ballistic at that. Lotta disappointment by it, but honestly, the more I heard from Mueller these last few months, the more I expected something like this where his final say and findings probably wouldn’t be anything grand or new we didn’t already know or guess that’d make Trump sweat in fear 

    It's quite possibly one of those cases where someone didn't do anything illegal, but their reaction just makes it more suspicious and increases the desire to investigate.

    He's the type who can't handle criticism at all.

    It's interesting to think this investigation probably would have gone faster if he wasn't assailing it 24/7, and it probably would have helped his approval ratings due to giving off an impression of not having anything to hide.

    But hey, if he did that, he wouldn't be Trump.


  20. 9 hours ago, Joy said:

    I'm now extremely curious about what would happen if Chaos got some of the virus on him! He's technically organic but, well, there's not exactly much to his biology. Guess it depends on how the virus interacts with other liquids.

    Considering how much of an organic body is water, whether actual water or part of a compound, he should logically be just as screwed as anyone else.

    We think of ourselves as solid, but we're pretty squishy apart from bones!

    On the other hand, the virus is "turning" things into metal. Going by the science fiction behind that, it's possibly actually repurposing metals like iron and calcium (and non-metals like carbon, which can be condensed into diamond, the hardest substance), etc. inside an individual's body, while the water in the body explains the squishy, malleable texture of the zombots. Chaos presumably has none of the harder elements, so he should be fine.

    On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if there's some intense heat at work to make the virus do its job (dissolving preexisting chemical bonds and all that), so... Chaos might just end up evaporating like he got Thanos'd. That's its own breed of horrifying.


  21. See Eggman's genius is apparent here. The spread by contact not only makes the virus capable of exponential growth, but it also accounted for how he understood that he'd probably never get a chance to sandblast Sonic with the stuff.

    Bonus points? Sonic's speed works against him here. Because he can't get doused in it, he gets to be infected very slowly... which means he gets to see everyone else turn before him and see how helpless he is.

    Current mood is very much:

    Wonder who the lucky first friend to lose is.


  22. 9 hours ago, Celestia said:

    In fairness that would make less sense with something that's a virus that effects you physically (followed by mentally--and I won't be too surprised if we see someone, whether it's Sonic or someone else, resist that part at least), as opposed to like a magical force that could theoretically be resisted.

    In the case of Unleashed though, Sonic's very body was warped. If anything, he should have been more affected by Dark Gaia than anybody else. Everyone else (sans the Phoenix) just had a Devil on their shoulder. Sonic became the Devil.

    Though yes, Chip's influence is actually more satisfying here. As Dark Gaia's opposite he would logically be able to cancel out the effects, even if only on a small scale.

    8 hours ago, Heckboy said:

    He's always been supremely confident and genuinely believes in himself, so much so that he isn't susceptible to the corrupting influence of a dark god whose entire shtick is preying on people's doubts and negativity to shatter hope and all things good in the world.

    Worth consideration that Pride is the worst of the vices for a reason.

    Dark Gaia should have been able to FEAST upon an ego like that.

    The idea here is there is darkness in every heart. It's also worth considering the trope of characters who are so supremely confident in their doing good that they end up becoming villains.

    2 hours ago, Foxthefox1000 said:

    Lmao "slime girls".

    Don't give even more reason for NSFW artists to draw Sonic characters.

    Please, I beg of you all, let's not explore this bit any further.


  23. I'm just happy these comics won't do the Ass Pull Unleashed did where Sonic has such immense, immeasurable willpower that he can not be conquered by any corrupting influence.

    Which means we get to see this series briefly become the Running Dead after Sonic is fully converted, leaving us wondering who will make it out of the virus, before it's all reset.

     

    I swear if the world is saved by Big the Cat...

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