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Legosi (Tani Coyote)

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Everything posted by Legosi (Tani Coyote)

  1. My sister had an early voting station on her campus 3 days in a row while she was there. She declined to vote. I am an angry yote.

  2. Whelp, early voting has closed in most states or will close today. We are in the final stretch at last and have more of an idea of the election. The verdict? ...still way too close to call pretty much everywhere. Every vote (or enough people voting one way, rather) still can make a difference. The peril of looking too much into early voting is that it's possible they are just people who would have voted on Election Day. So higher Republican turnout (which is the case in a lot of places, contrary to the common wisdom that Democrats rely more on the early vote) could just mean lower Republican turnout on Tuesday. https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/02/blue-wave-arizona-democrats-see-major-surge-early-voting-turnout/1860936002/ In Arizona, Republicans usually lead by 12% in midterm early votes. They are leading by only 8%. That 4 percent shift is more than enough to change the outcome of many key races. There is a strong possibility a Democrat will win, but Jon Kyl will step down as a Senator days before the Democrat takes office, allowing the outgoing Governor to appoint a further right Republican. Now that McCain is gone, there's a serious chance the GOP Senate will pass an ACA repeal in 2019. We can only hope the House flips so that it has no chance in going anywhere. https://www.news-press.com/story/news/2018/11/02/record-early-vote-florida-offers-good-news-democrats-and-gop/1857263002/ Florida has good news for both parties. Democrats are hitting records, but the GOP still leads. 4.1 million Floridians have early voted compared to 3.1 million in the last midterm. However, evidence points to independent voters having a Democratic lean. Florida will remain nailbiting into the wee hours of Tuesday night. There is always warning, however, that nothing is over until the polls close: 2016 had Democrats way ahead of the GOP in early voting, but the GOP swamped the polls on the actual day that it gave Trump the state. If you have not voted yet, please do so. https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/30/18037872/texas-voting-machine-hart-eslate-voting-ballot-switch-problems Some reports on the Texas voting machine issue. It just old, overly sensitive technology rather than foul play in all likelihood. The ballots also tend to get switched either way due to how the glitch works, and from what can be seen, the malfunctioning machines are a tiny portion of the total. It is extremely unlikely that the issue, while concerning, will change the results. Besides being an argument to modernize the voting machines, it also speaks to the issues of not having a paper trail when voting machines are in use.
  3. At least in Florida, the racist ads were not affiliated with the actual candidate. Here, the Tennessee GOP candidate for the Senate outright lies and says the caravan is full of "people from the Middle East." This is just disturbing.
  4. https://www.coloradoindependent.com/2018/10/30/democrats-and-republicans-nearly-tied-in-early-balloting-with-800000-votes-cast-in-colorado/ Some good news from Colorado. Republicans are trailing their 2014 margins by 50,000 votes, while Democrats are ahead by 25,000. Republicans are still returning ballots in larger numbers, but only by about 1,000 votes. Early voting is a strange beast. While the popular wisdom is that it is a tool for Democrats to turn out their base, increasingly Republicans are the ones who take advantage of it. This is consistent with how older, wealthier voters would have more free time and so could vote the moment polls open, while Democrats probably set aside a particular day. All this in mind, while the GOP is leading in most early voting contests, enough Democrats are still casting ballots that things could radically change come Election Day. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/31/politics/cnn-poll-arizona-nevada-senate-races/index.html The Democratic candidates have narrow leads in both Nevada and Arizona's races. If these races go the Democrats' way, the likely loss of North Dakota will put the Senate at an even split unless Democrats pull off upsets in Texas, Mississippi or Tennessee (all of which are possible).
  5. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/31/politics/early-vote-as-of-wednesday-morning/index.html Breakdown of early voting results in several key states. Women have voted more than men, even as the early voting population skews older. Georgia and Texas are showing considerable youth turnout. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/31/politics/nancy-pelosi-house-democrats-midterms-voting/index.html Nancy Pelosi is speaking with increased confidence the Democrats will win the House 6 days from today. Hopefully this does not tempt fate.
  6. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/30/politics/medicaid-expansion-idaho/index.html Obamacare's safety might just be assured by the least likely of places: Idaho. The state's GOP Governor has endorsed a Medicaid expansion ballot measure. If it passes, the GOP will be in an extremely uncomfortable position with all its repeal talk. So many people across so many states are benefiting from Medicaid under the new rules that to propose repealing them will go over about as well as discussing Medicare cuts. Nebraska, Montana, and Utah are also discussing Medicaid expansion on their ballots. This year could see a wave that basically sucks all the impetus out from repeal efforts. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/30/politics/steve-king-nrcc-chair-white-supremacy/index.html Rep. Steve King's campaign is falling apart ever since he revealed his power level (that is, he is so openly white nationalist that even the complicit GOP is distancing itself from him). He has lost endorsements and financial backing from several companies as well as the House GOP's fundraising arm. https://www.nj.com/marijuana/2018/10/top_lawmakers_decline_to_say_when_marijuana_legali.html Legal marijuana votes in New Jersey have been delayed yet again. At the rate they're going, Trump and Congress will legalize pot before they do.
  7. He's desperately trying to fire up his base to turn out and vote for the midterms because while he will still be free to pack the Court come January, he will quite possibly lose the House, which means his whole agenda disappears. So he's going back to his 2016 strategy: stoke racist fears and hope they push him over the finish line. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/10/30/uncertainties_loom_as_midterms_enter_final_stretch.html Republicans are still outperforming Democrats in most early voting returns. With one week to go however, a lot can still change. It's also noted that historically a significant number (around 15%) of suburban Republican voters have backed Democrats in midterm elections. The party identification does not necessarily translate into votes, and in most states the margins are close enough that defecting Republicans change the outcome. The typical suburban Republican is more of a libertarian than a conservative, liking the GOP's economic policies but not particularly caring for its social agenda. With Trump in power to guard against tax raises, it's not unfathomable some Republicans will peel off and put a Democratic House into power to keep his crazier ideas out of play. Trump is undoubtedly doing everything he can to prevent a last minute Democratic recovery.
  8. In fairness, a lot of voting machines print up a paper ballot that the voter has to verify before they cast their ballot. They are also disconnected from a network. This isn't a voting machine issue so much as it's Texas' limited government bullshit biting it in the ass when it doesn't want to fork over some money to modernize infrastructure. Indeed, Texas is one of the states with voting machines that do not have paper trails. That raises a serious specter of fraud. Most states still have paper ballots as their primary method, all this said. Colorado adopted opt-out mail-in ballots as the primary voting method prior to 2014, however, so it's quite possible voting machines will end up being phased out by the simple fact with three states having opt-out mail-in ballots now, it might catch on in other states. And indeed, there have been movements in several states to move to vote by mail. VBM raises its own issues of possible fraud or intimidation, but there does not seem to be conclusive evidence of it happening.
  9. The articles goes into detail that it's unlikely any attempt to rig the election, but more the fact Texas is using very old voting systems. Think how Florida's 2000 ballots left much to be desired. In both cases, the ballots are seen as having helped the GOP, but I don't think that's as much as by design as things like voter ID laws. There are probably cases of these machines switching GOP votes to Democrat as well. Now, we could absolutely pin partisan blame on the GOP for the problem as a whole. They're the ones who stress smaller budgets for things besides police and the military, and that means much-needed funds for voting infrastructure are often not there.
  10. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/25/politics/house-2018-midterm-election/index.html Interesting analysis on why a Democratic wave is still possible. Democrats are contesting a record number of seats. Around 75 Democratic incumbents have no challenger, compared to just 10 Republicans. With so many seats being contested, upsets are possible. Indeed, prior wave elections had a common feature: high competition against the dominant party. In 2006, 22 Republicans were running unopposed for House seats. The House is very much in play, particularly since the 2006 Democratic majority scored upsets in some red districts. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/25/politics/gingrich-kavanaugh-fight-wapo/index.html So Gingrich basically confirmed he understands Kavanaugh is a partisan hack. He implied that if the Democrats subpoena Trump's tax returns, the fight will go to the Supreme Court, with the implication Kavanaugh would take revenge. Because you should totally say holding grudges is an okay thing for judges to do.
  11. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/25/politics/false-flag-theory-mail-bombs-cnn-democrats/index.html Meanwhile, Rush Limbaugh and co. are doing what a lot of conservative pundits do: banking on "maybe" instead of actual evidence. They're saying this could be a false flag by Democratic operatives to make it seem the right and left are equally violent (the conservative pundits' constructed reality is only the left is violent, of course). They're citing things like Trump drawing larger crowds than Obama and higher Republican early voting rates as evidence Democrats are scared and would turn towards shit like this to try and stir up turnout. Limbaugh's statement is particularly amusing because he repeats the same bullshit, debunked lie that Democrats abuse early voting to commit widespread fraud by having undocumented people and dead people vote. I ask this question of Limbaugh and all who think voter fraud is a serious, statistically significant issue: if Democrats are so damned awesome at fraud, how come they lose so badly? The red wave of 2010, when Republicans came into power and could put in all these ostensibly "anti-fraud" measures, happened in an environment when Democrats had all the cards. As mass fraudsters, they should have been able to prevent that. Vote rigging is easy; we see it all across the world. So why didn't they? Because it's bullshit, that's why. Also, cherry on top here. You know who else passed technically not discriminatory laws and said it was all in the name of preventing fraud? The Jim Crow South. Good day.
  12. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/23/politics/donald-trump-proof-unknown-middle-easterners-migrant-caravan/index.html As he openly comments on Twitter about sending the military down the border, Trump has admitted he has no evidence of terrorists or criminals in the caravan heading for the border. He openly says in this Q and A that there could be, that it's a hunch, etc. Because hunches are what policy should be based on. But then again, possibility of bad behavior, rather than proof, is the basis of a lot of cornerstone GOP policies like gutting welfare, overpolicing, and voter ID laws. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/23/politics/andrew-gillum-texts-hamilton-corruption-investigation/index.html The Florida Governor race is a damned joke. What's the topic of controversy? ...whether the Democratic candidate lied about the source of a ticket to Hamilton. Evidence has found he received it from an undercover FBI agent. He says his brother got it for him, and that he was under the impression that his brother had in fact arranged it with a friend. The GOP is seizing on this as evidence as enormous corruption on par with all the shit Trump and co. are doing. What a joke. https://www.coloradoindependent.com/2018/10/23/colorado-early-voting-returns-2018/ Republicans are currently leading ballot returns in Colorado. Since the whole state is based on mail-in ballots, there is concern. On the other hand, far fewer people have voted than at the same point in 2016. With two weeks to go, a lot can change. Probably the most epic election ad ever.
  13. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/22/politics/forecast-scott-walker-underdog/index.html Political winds change quickly. Incumbent GOP Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin looked well-poised to get a third term for most of the past four years, but recent polling has him lagging behind the Democrat. This is a trend across the Midwest. While the Great Lakes states paved the way for Trump to take the White House, it looks like that victory has been short lived, and the region is moving back towards its Democratic roots. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/22/1806370/-6-in-10-NBC-WSJ-poll-captures-dramatic-late-movement-towards-Dem?utm_campaign=trending More bad news for the GOP. A lot of the independent voters who disliked both parties but went for Trump in 2016 seem to prefer the Democrats controlling Congress by a huge margin. 59 percent, actually. If those numbers translate into votes, this won't be a blue wave. It will be a blue tsunami. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/22/politics/trump-factor-all-about-him/index.html Trump's active campaigning strategy seems to be losing its luster. Rather like how a lot of people loved Obama but did not care to vote for his allies, even as Trump insists on pretending he's at the top of the a ballot, the Republicans are trailing in most of the states that were critical for him. Here's a real topper: Trump's speeches are increasingly not receiving any coverage because of the constant campaigning. This is reportedly irritating him immensely, because it's hurting his ability to reach his base.
  14. Possibly, but the independent vote is generally a waste unless the person is a former popular incumbent or until we get instant runoff voting. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-19/midterm-elections-2018 Early voter turnout is smashing records. Four times as many people have voted in Tennessee than in 2014. In Nevada, so far Democratic ballots are carrying the day in Washoe County. That is one of Republican Senator Heller's strongest bases of support. If there's not a change in the trend over the next two weeks or huge turnout on Election Day in his favor, he will quite possibly lose his seat.
  15. https://www.viz.com/shonenjump/dragon-ball-super-chapter-41/chapter/15977?read=1 Chapter 41's English translation is up! Instead of Goku getting tired out from Ultra Instinct, it's more that Jiren was able to push himself a little further and so could react fast enough to cancel out Goku's advantage. Also I just realized Jiren blows up Universe 9 and 10's portions of the stands, while Mojito and Cus just casually jump out of the way and land behind Universe 7. That's hilarious. In the same vein, at one point Jiren and Goku are moving so fast nobody can keep up with them. Cue Whis going "oh darn :o" when it becomes obvious Jiren won. Jiren's wish is revealed to be a desire to revive his master. Just his master. Because his master was never able to give his approval before he died. What a baby. (Vegeta, in a moment of intellect, points out Jiren's wish makes no sense. He wants to prove how strong he is, and yet he needs a magical dragon to revive his master so he can get approval, so he's more dependent on others than anyone else there. Jiren is not pleased.) Vegeta also criticizes Jiren's wish as selfish. The odds he'll be the one to revive all the fallen universes are skyrocketing. Belmod reveals the reason Jiren was never recognized as a successor by his master: he was too proud to recognize the value of teamwork. And he implies that is why Jiren will lose. Compare how Vegeta puts aside his rampant pride for the good of the universe by working with Goku. The final plot twist: Whis' insistence on training them both at once was not so they would have a better shot at beating him, but because he understood it was the only way to get them to learn how to unconsciously coordinate. It's a bit different from the anime, where Vegeta and Goku's strength came from having unsynchronized attacks. Curious what Frieza is up to in all this. He's disappeared.
  16. First day of early voting is showing promising returns! https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/412263-early-voting-hints-at-huge-turnout Further substantiated by The Hill, which reports 4.6 million people have already cast ballots. This election is looking poised to have the highest turnout for a midterm in decades. Me personally, I have scheduled an Uber to the polls on Tuesday. I've also researched all the "nonpartisan" candidates, discovered which side they're really on, and have marked them as yes or no votes in my sample ballot.
  17. The raw scans for Chapter 41 have dropped. About what you would expect: largely UI Goku versus Jiren. Goku is dominating him at first, but it looks like just in the anime his body is no longer able to hold the form and Jiren is able to turn the tide. He is almost ringed out but Vegeta manages to grab him, and they prepare to fight Jiren together. From the looks of things, Belmod is convinced Jiren will lose, as he's been worn down already and Universe 7 still has 3 (4) warriors. This was the part where 17 rolled out from his rock in the anime, so it will be interesting to see how they change it around. It's looking like this fight may drag on for a bit after all. The most impressive part of this fight is Goku using a Kamehameha to blow a hole through the entire Tournament stage, but Jiren manages to hold on at the end of the tunnel. Maybe 17 is genuinely dead and Vegeta will end up making the wish instead?
  18. https://www.npr.org/2018/10/18/658255884/voter-turnout-could-hit-50-year-record-for-midterm-elections Data indicates that we may see a record amount of turnout for the midterms this year, 45-50%. Data is being compared to other years like 2010 and 2014, and there is such an enormous enthusiasm for voting in primaries, records in special elections, etc. that we will see far more participation than usual. Early voting is already breaking records where it has begun in states like Georgia. Polling does show the Republicans have seen a growth in enthusiasm as well, but among Democrats it is just astounding. It will be a tense few weeks until Election Day night. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/18/politics/beto-orourke-definitive-no-president-2020/index.html At his town hall tonight, Texas Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke ruled out a Presidential run in 2020. He said he is committed to serving his full Senate term if he wins. Of course, his term is up in 2024, when Trump will be outgoing even if he wins re-election, and the Presidency will be ripe for Democrats to take. Furthermore, if Beto wins, it is likely more because people hate Cruz, so it would be a perfect time to exit the Senate. My God, this man is not even trying anymore. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/15/chinas-great-leap-backward-xi-jinping/ Food for thought: Xi's moves towards making China a bureaucratic nightmare might cause a serious decline in China's economic power and influence, and Trump will probably win re-election by taking credit for it.
  19. Formally resigned my staff position at Sonic Revolution today. It's a melancholic morning.

    1. tailsBOOM!


      I'm sorry to hear that

  20. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/17/politics/donald-trump-republicans/index.html The fact Trump is a partisan of convenience has never been so apparent. Asked if he would think himself responsible if the GOP lost control of the House, he gave a simple no. After all, he has endorsed plenty of candidates who have won, so it could not possibly be his fault. This is quite terrifying for the GOP: Trump is clearly willing to distance himself from them if they lose. It is expected he would quite happily cut deals with Democrats if they take the House. It's no surprise he's more interested in re-election than in the Party, so for all we know, Democrats could leverage this to get some liberal Court appointments and the like in spite of not controlling the Senate. I'm okay with this, bring on the Federalist Papers' strategy. The House is supposed to be a means for the larger states to hold the smaller states' feet to the fire and prevent the Senate from devolving into an oligarchic mess.
  21. Just donated $25 to Four Directions, the Native American voting rights group that is going to be active in North Dakota's elections to try and combat the voter suppression. Money is tight for me but I figured it was a good cause. That's because of the different political demographics. With the way constituencies are drawn, Democrats need to actively give concessions to maintain relevance. Republicans, on the other hand, tend to have more consolidated bases and so are easily rewarded by playing hardball. Most polling shows more Americans identifying as conservative on that note (even though most Americans are also supportive of New Deal-esque economics). This has been a big part of the GOP's ability to do what it wants: it has less need to reach across the aisle. The Senate is slanted towards the GOP, as are more House districts, and the same goes for most single-member districts. For Democrats to win, they need to compromise. Republicans do not need to do any such thing. But then they get hate for daring to compromise, and the base is content to punish them. Except... Democrats who never compromised would never win, so the GOP would have a perpetual monopoly on power. This is a really ugly situation.
  22. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/16/politics/heitkamp-apologizes-sexual-assault-survivors/index.html Heidi Heitkamp's prospects just took another dip. Her campaign aired an ad with the names of many North Dakota women who were victims of sexual assault, without their knowledge or consent. While some of the names listed have denied it, others have said it is true but they will no longer support Heitkamp. On one hand, I do get the outrage here, and it is absolutely justified. On the other, I don't think her opponent would be any more sensitive to this issue. Two party politics really does suck, but I would say the Democrats have more of a political purity issue that explains why they lose so badly in so many races. Republicans have much more discipline in supporting their candidates even if they greatly dislike them. Likewise, this is the same reason I'm still behind Joe Manchin even if he is obnoxiously DINO. He is still better than a full on Republican Senator.
  23. https://www.twincities.com/2018/10/15/plan-aims-to-boost-native-american-voting-in-n-d-after-supreme-court-decision/ In response to the Supreme Court ruling allowing North Dakota's voter suppression, Native American leaders have delved deep into all the nuances of North Dakota voting laws and have crafted a strategy to counter the suppression. They will be standing outside all the tribal polling centers with laptops they can use to access the voter database so they can prove each indigenous person's right to vote. North Dakota is the only state that does not require voter registration. All it asks for is proper identification. The tribal leaders will be using computers to provide it on the spot. They say it doesn't matter if Heitkamp wins or loses, they just want to show they're not taking this laying down.
  24. Don't mind if I start playing "Fist Bump" the moment the wolf stops being a coward and starts actively teaming up with his partner to fight the bad guys :v

    1. Strickerx5


      Yo this is lit!

  25. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/15/politics/donald-trump-elizabeth-warren-dna-1-million/index.html Elizabeth Warren has taken a DNA test that has confirmed her Native American ancestry. Trump has denied he ever said he would pay her $1 million. He later clarified his promise to pay $1 million to a charity of her choice was only if she won the Democratic nomination first. In fairness, Warren has taken the test so he can't try and use her ancestry against her should she start running next year. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/15/politics/saudi-arabia-congress-trump-khashoggi/index.html The Senate has begun discussing taking action against Saudi Arabia for its alleged role in the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi. Voices from Marco Rubio to Bernie Sanders are saying investigations should be made and action taken. We might see a veto-proof bipartisan sanction bill against Saudi Arabia like we saw with Russia a while back. Trump continues to warn against sanctions because of the weapons deal with the Saudis, and has said cutting the deal would cost jobs. Unfortunately for him, most members of Congress have little reason to care about that. Most of them will be re-elected no matter what they do, as any job losses would inevitably be blamed on Trump. Senators in particular would be content to throw Trump under the bus. Your typical Senator can look at the President and go, "We were here before you, and we will be here after you, Mr. President" with a snide grin. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/15/politics/democrats-protest-grassley-judicial-nominee-recess/index.html After McConnell cut a deal with Democrats to clear a slate of judges in exchange for the Democrats being able to go back home and campaign, Chuck Grassley is moving several nominations forward during the recess (that is, when there will be a minimal Democratic presence to oppose any of them). He blasted Democrats for "obstruction" that has left many vacancies. Pretty sure he was quiet on his buddy Mitch doing it. I am glad he is 86 and will be 90 when his seat is next up. Also this is his seventh term. Good Lord do we need term limits. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/15/politics/trump-painting-the-republican-club-presidents-white-house/index.html Meanwhile there's this. Trump has hung a painting of himself having a drink with past Republican Presidents in the White House. The fact he is so close to Lincoln, Teddy and Ike disgusts me. Him being right next to Ford and Nixon is right on the money, though. In the spirit of bipartisanship, I think he should be having an exclusive party with Andrew Jackson, personally.
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