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Legosi (Tani Coyote)

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Everything posted by Legosi (Tani Coyote)

  1. He's going to be trying to undermine confidence in democracy all 2-6 years he's in office. The good news is most people don't buy it. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/15/politics/cindy-hyde-smith-mississippi-universities-voter-suppression/index.html On the subject of voter suppression, the Republican in the Mississippi special election has joked that it would be a good thing to suppress the votes of students because they lean liberal. Her campaign is going the "it's just a joke, gosh!" route with it. Jokes lose humor when they're very salient to actual issues. When Obama joked about using predator drones on his daughters' boyfriends, of course there was humor in it because it's so patently absurd. By contrast, efforts to make voting harder, that have had disproportionate effects on liberal groups, are very real. https://www.nj.com/marijuana/2018/11/first_pass_at_legal_weed_could_roll_into_statehouse_in_days_but_full_vote_will_require_joint_effort.html New Jersey may vote on a legal marijuana bill in the next two weeks. May. Big May. New Jersey keeps hitting hurdles due to disagreements on tax rates and the like, and it's kept the bill in limbo for months. Remember that legal pot was one of the big promises of the Murphy campaign, and he's been in office for 10 months now. I'm almost willing to bet money Congress will get a legal pot bill through sooner. The mood in Washington is shifting dramatically.
  2. Considering Clinton was billed as the one who was more electable yet lost anyway, I think a lot of primary voters would get wise this time around and vote to keep the nomination away from her, in any case. Most Dem leaders, meanwhile, were happy to step aside to let the Party darling get practically handed the nomination. With her abysmal performance last time, I don't think many of them would be as eager to. As an aside? I don't think the Dems' disavowing of Bill Clinton as part of the #MeToo movement was entirely altruistic. It was also a way to reduce the influence of the couple so that they would stay in the shadows going forward. The Clintons have cast a long shadow over the Democratic Party for a while, and the culture shift provided a perfect opportunity to finally curb their influence. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/12/politics/florida-bay-county-vote-by-email-fax-hurricane/index.html And the county with the most illegally-cast votes in Florida is... wait for it... a Republican county! Due to dislocation from a hurricane, the local county officials allowed some voters who were homeless to cast votes by email or fax, even though this is illegal under state law. They ran it by the Secretary of State, who said that the county knows its needs best and should do what they had to do to get votes in. See, this would sound noble, helping dislocated people... except the GOP complains about fraud and illegal ballots everywhere else. But this is a Republican county, so they suddenly did not care about the letter of rules but the spirit of democracy. Pathetic.
  3. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/12/politics/sinema-arizona-senate-race/index.html Democrat Kyrsten Sinema has won the Arizona Senate race, with so many ballots coming in it is now impossible for McSally to win the race. Sinema is the first Democrat to win the seat in 24 years, the first woman to represent Arizona, and the first openly bisexual person to win a U.S. Senate seat. With 47 seats, the Democrats now have a very narrow path to a majority in 2020. That would improve if the Democrats managed to take Florida in the Senate recount, but that election is pretty much guaranteed to be stolen by the GOP with their arbitrary voting laws. The Republicans are, in usual fashion, projecting when they complain about stealing elections there. I can only hope with all the people who had their voting rights restored on Election Night that the Florida GOP gets a black eye in the next election.
  4. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/12/politics/richard-ojeda-president-2020/index.html Richard Ojeda has announced a bid for President of the United States. Ojeda is a veteran from West Virginia, and a firm economic populist. He voted for Trump in 2016 on the basis of Trump's promises to combat the opioid epidemic and help put the people of coal country back to work. With Trump having largely abandoned those promises, Ojeda is running an economic populist Democratic campaign. While he lost the House race in his district, he came far closer to winning it than Clinton ever did. While Ojeda's coal industry background make him stand out as an oddball (he is interested in reviving the coal industry, unlike most Democrats, but he's most focused on simply reviving the desolated West Virginian economy), he is one of several candidates representing an economic populist shift in policy. He has a strong base in organized labor as well. Ojeda is pro-life, but he has a pro-choice policy position because abortion bans would only hurt the poor and rich people would find a way to get them illegally. At 48 to Sanders' 77, Ojeda could provide the Democrats with some much needed young progressive leadership.
  5. https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/new-numbers-show-arizona-senate-race-no-longer-close-call-30000-votes-kyrsten-sinema-wins/ Democratic victory in the Arizona Senate race looks increasingly likely. With 260,000 votes left, many of them from Phoenix, Sinema has a 30,000 vote lead. The Republican McSally would need to win over 57% of the remaining vote to win. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/11/politics/florida-recount-palm-beach-county/index.html Republican and Democratic election workers alike have said meeting the Thursday deadline will be impossible in Florida. Should this happen, the Secretary of State will certify results as is. The Palm Beach GOP chairman has blatantly said this is good news for Republicans because their candidates are ahead. At least they're honest about how they like to steal elections. There will be lawsuits. There is no doubt about that. Court packing will certainly be on the table. Savvy conservative judges will move strategically to stave off a packing attempt by behaving like moderates. If the Dems so desire, they can use their next Senate majority, a possibility, to rapidly lock in power. They may as well considering the odds of losing the Senate will be extremely high.
  6. [tweet]

    Holy crap this is the best crossover I never knew I wanted

  7. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/08/politics/pelosi-trump-phone-call-cnntv/index.html Pelosi and Trump have had an interesting phone call. Trump wants to find common ground, but also threatened to get aggressive if any investigations were made into him. Pelosi's rebuttal was House investigations are standard procedure, and he's going to just have to accept that. Trump would be a moron if he really lets some investigations get in the way of passing a giant infrastructure bill that would help him win re-election, unless he's really hiding something. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/08/politics/pelosi-detractors-make-their-first-move/index.html The attacks on Pelosi from within the Democratic Party has begun, as rules changes are considered to make it so the Democratic nominee for speaker will require 218 votes. While there are enough no votes to sink a speakership, Pelosi allies are convinced it will not translate into her losing the Speakership; every Democrat who backed Pelosi's in-party rival Tim Ryan came behind her in the formal floor vote. It's a tough sell, because there's a mountain of evidence indicating having a gun in the home increases the risk to oneself. However, most of those studies include increased suicide rates, which would make the risk boil down to mental health issues rather than firearm ownership per se. I acknowledge the increased suicide risk but do not think gun owners for whom that risk does not apply should be denied ownership because of it. I also don't think I like all these white, cishetero liberals telling nonwhites and queer people they're not allowed to have guns to defend themselves if they want them. It's rather eyebrow raising the same people who insist the police are corrupt and abusive tend to be the ones who say you should depend on them in all emergencies. Given the response time for police anyway, I can't fault a black man for deciding owning a gun is worth the risks. And I think that should be his decision. Now, collective defense on the other hand, that's different. I fully support the efforts of groups like Redneck Revolt in bringing communities together in armed defense. We don't really have data to support the idea of individual self-defense, but collective defense is another matter. States and corporations will tread carefully if they understand communities are packing. This is where liberals will go "haha there's no way a militia would defeat the Army," and that's true. It's also a gigantic strawman. Gun ownership as a deterrent rests on the concept of how much it complicates state overreach. The increased likelihood of an armed confrontation could threaten the state's legitimacy. If push comes to shove, even a powerful military will struggle against a well-armed insurgency. On a day to day basis, employers will think twice about abusing their workers when they calculate there's a lot more of them and a lot of them have weapons. I do think a lot of the problems we associate with guns - crime, increased suicide rate - etc. could actually be resolved through other measures. And there are possible allies in red states who would be on board with these measures. That requires the Democrats not be neoliberal garbage, however.
  8. The fact Florida and Arizona could still end up going blue, ohohoho, that's a thing. States matter. The Senate, President and SCOTUS can say whatever they want, but it means nothing if the states go "nah." Look at pot. Look at sanctuary cities. The consent of the governed is twofold in a federal system like ours, and it means Democrats would be in a prime position to seize power at the state level while also keeping control of the House to cripple any federal agenda. It's also recognizing circumstances. It is very plausible the next Democratic President would come into power with little agenda setting power. They would be a pen and phone President from day one. Obama at least got to pass a healthcare bill before he became kind of useless. In addition, without the Senate, the SCOTUS stays red anyway. The Presidency is honestly fools' gold with current projections. The Dems get a prominent office and lose everything else. Now, should the Florida and Arizona races resolve in Dems' favor, the math changes dramatically. Dems would be in a position to lock in power after 2020 with major overhauls. They could expand the House (which would shift the power balance towards blue states in the House and Presidency), pass a new preclearance formula, and even pack the Court. But here's the clincher: they need to nuke the legislative filibuster to do these, which will have serious effects if they do not make sure to lock out the GOP as it currently is. Midterm politics being what they are, the Democrats would be at risk with losing the Senate in 2022, albeit only because their majority would be so small.
  9. There's really no winning here. You have to pick your poison. State offices matter. On a day to day basis, those are the offices that will affect you. The Obama years were great! ...except, not really, since the GOP controlled just about everything else and made countless people's lives Hell. Obama's policies were a small comfort to everyone who did not benefit from those (of which there were many, because the GOP controlled everything else). I can do this too. In the age of a conservative court, state government is especially relevant, because we're unlikely to see court interventions to help people like we saw under Obama. Institutional reform is the best way forward because it resolves the issue of the Supreme Court and the fact the Democratic Party is led by a bunch of dinosaurs simultaneously. 2022 race has some slight promise. If a Democrat wins in 2020, they will likely carry the Rust Belt, Iowa and Florida. That gives them a chance of numerous Senate pickups in the midterm... if we see a repeat of the consolidation we saw this year, where the GOP took Democratic seats in states Trump won. But those voters are still so swingy it's entirely possible the GOP will hold those seats and the 2020 Democrat will remain powerless for 8 years in a way even Obama did not have so badly.
  10. Keep wanting. Even if a Democrat takes the Presidency in 2020, he/she will be powerless. The GOP will maintain its Senate majority until 2022 at the earliest. And they will expand it in 2022 if a Democrat is President. Of the 4 most competitive seats in 2020 - Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and Iowa - only Colorado is a likely pickup. And the Democrats will lose Alabama. You may say it'd be better to have a Democratic President than nothing, but I'd rather take a Republican President with Democrats controlling everything else but the Senate. If the federal government must be dysfunctional, I'd rather the states be run by Democrats. Now, this may change if Democrats pull off surprise wins in this year's Florida and Arizona races (they're still being counted/recounted), but that's unlikely. We are in for the long haul with the GOP Senate. And only some ludicrous 50-state strategy will change that.
  11. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/08/politics/2018-elections-lucy-mcbath-karen-handel-concedes-georgia-congress/index.html Ossoff's revenge! Karen Handel has lost her bid for re-election in the Georgia 6th, after she narrowly defeated Democrat Jon Ossoff in what was once the most expensive House race in US history. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/08/politics/religious-makeup-2018/index.html Democrats have seen disappointment with how the Latino vote has not really turned into a second African-American vote like they had hoped. A lot of Latino voters have moved towards Protestantism and conservatism. But Democrats can get reassurance from another factor: the electorate's religiosity has continued to decline. Even if people are not atheist, they are increasingly agnostic or unaffiliated, demographics that lean Democratic. Within our lifetimes, it is very possible the religious right will become irrelevant within the GOP, and the GOP will move towards more libertarian positions. The gains they've been making with religious Latinos can only carry them so far. They're sooner or later going to need to rollback the Christianity and focus more on laissez-faire economics, something which would win them a lot of support among younger voters and a growing irreligious population. Funding the investigation as is would presumably require standard legislation that the Senate and Trump would not be on board with. But they most likely could acquire all of Mueller's files and do an independent investigation. This is a constitutional power of the House and Trump can't do shit about it. It does make me ponder if we'd get another "switch in time" moment. Chief Justice Roberts (who, funnily enough, shares the same last name as the justice who switched sides and kept FDR's plan from coming to fruition) can be a swingy vote due to his consideration of the Court's legitimacy, while Clarence Thomas, who swings liberal when it comes to African American issues, might make a surprise retirement under the next Democratic President. That said, constitutional reform really should be spearheaded. And as much as I hate to say it, Trump actually probably has the best position to do so, and has called for term limits (albeit for Congress) in the past. He is in a weird position where he can force Senate Republicans to go along with a plan, while House Democrats would also want the limits because it would avoid the conservative court issue. As for Trump, he'd go down in history as a President who oversaw a huge reform of American law, so he wins by merit of his ego getting stroked. Also, this would be the best way to get revenge on Mitch McConnell for not doing everything he wants. With how Trump has had his fascist agenda crippled by the rise of the Democratic House, he may very well pivot towards things a lot of people voted for him for in the first place: serious institutional reform and infrastructure spending. He is in a great position to reform the Supreme Court and campaign finance, if he cares to do so. Which of course, probably means he gets a second term. I can only hope 2020 Trump voters in the Rust Belt and Florida would be savvy enough to at least send him back to Washington with another Democratic House to keep his insanity in check. My greatest anxiety about Trump pursuing constitutional reform is attempting to eliminate birthright citizenship as part of a package that would also reform Congress and the Supreme Court.
  12. Went to a panel with some experts from the Brookings Institute. The Mueller question was raised. Even if Trump is bold enough to outright can Mueller, the House could still subpoena all of Mueller's findings. Too little, too late for the orange. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/07/politics/michigan-second-district-jason-lewis-called-women-sluts/index.html A GOP Congressman who is on the record for whining about being unable to call women "sluts" was thrown out of office by a woman. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/07/health/abortion-ballot-measures-amendments/index.html With the passage of strong pro-life amendments in West Virginia and Alabama, the table is set for an abortion case in the next year or two. All eyes will be on Chief Justice Roberts to possibly be a swing vote who ends up saving the Roe precedent. http://floridapolitics.com/archives/280659-bill-nelson-recount-attorney-were-doing-it-to-win Also, there's a chance that Florida's Senate seat may still end up going to Nelson. Votes are still coming in, and a lot of them are from blue districts. Scott's lead has shrunken to 30-35,000. Provisional ballots still need to be counted, and there are also early vote and overseas ballots that have not been counted.
  13. Arizona Senate race is still too close to call. The Green Party may have actually stolen the race from the Democrats. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/07/michigan-house-representatives-senate-control-results-winners/1825497002/ Michigan's state house will remain in GOP hands, but the GOP majority has shifted from 9 to 4. However, the current GOP speaker will be retiring soon as he did not run for re-election; he was the one blocking popular vote legislation from going through. Some predictions for how this election will frame the next two years: -If Michigan passes the NPVIC, expect other states to take it up. It is very possible 2020 could be decided by popular vote instead of the Electoral College. Florida's restoration of voting rights to 1.5 million people will quite possibly convince the national GOP to slowly begin backing the national popular vote. -Trump's likely move to the center could pave the way for his reelection as voters in swing states re-elect him but also give him a Democratic Congress to keep him in check. -Nevada's likely passage of a public option for healthcare means other states might try to do the same. -The legalization of marijuana and expansion of Medicaid in several states is likely to reshape national debate on both. 5 GOP Senators will be in an uncomfortable position when it comes to repealing Obamacare, and the legalization of marijuana is likely to influence the votes of 5 more.
  14. Dems are up to 220 seats. They've taken the House. The GOP has seized Missouri, North Dakota, Florida, and Indiana in the Senate. However, they lost Nevada. Arizona is still too close to call. California remains a relatively tight race, 54-46 towards Feinstein with 44% of ballots counted. At the state level, the Democrats have taken Governorships in Nevada, New Mexico, Kansas, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan, for a total of 6. Were the Presidential election held today, Trump would have lost, as the Democrats conquered the three Great Lakes states that gave him the Presidency. The Republicans still control several northeastern Governorships, but a lot of them are RINOs. As for state legislatures: the Democrats have taken control of New Hampshire's, New York's, Minnesota's, Maine's, and Colorado's. Democrats are now in a serious position of power in states that total 94 electoral votes. They need to pass the NPVIC in states totaling 98 electoral votes to make it nationwide. If they could get Virginia in 2019's race? They would be able to hit that threshold. The 2020 race has a serious chance of being decided by popular vote.
  15. Besides the biggest objective of blocking the more extreme parts of the GOP's agenda, it can launch numerous investigations which might reveal embarrassing things about Trump and his allies. In addition, the proposed rules change in the House, if it passes, will allow bipartisan Senate legislation to easily pass the House, meaning we could actually get some meaningful reform on immigration and healthcare.
  16. https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/senate Nevada results are finally coming in; the polls closed over 3 hours ago, but so many people showed up to vote that they are only now finishing. Progressive Democrat De Leon is close to Dianne Feinstein in California; ironically, he is drawing a lot of his support from the redder districts. They hate the established Democrat so much they'll support a further left underdog. The race is 53-47 towards Feinstein with under 1/3 of the vote counted.
  17. Red, red, and more red. Only place in the South to return us a blue statewide race was West Virginia, Virginia and Kansas (!).
  18. A few hours, possibly. But Dems are up to 188 seats and the GOP 172. Most of the remaining seats are in blue-leaning areas, so short of serious shenanigans, the Democrats will take the House.
  19. https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/ballot-measures Michigan and Utah are on track to legalize recreational marijuana. Gerrymandering will be eliminated in Michigan, Colorado, and Utah with the establishment of redistricting commissions. Nebraska looks ready to expand Medicaid.
  20. Meanwhile, Colorado has elected the first openly gay male Governor!
  21. The Dems and GOP are tied in House results, at 98 each. There are still 239 seats to go. The odds of a Dem House are looking good, even as it looks like red state Dems are about to be annihilated.
  22. Do you never check the weather because sometimes it's wrong? Polling is a science. It is entirely about making predictions. This is why the margin of error is there. They can only get it so right because of the number of variables involved. Plus, let's think here. Clinton would have won had we been using the same electoral system as any other country. She only lost because of a system cooked up to protect the interests of people who thought they had the right to own other human beings.
  23. Given the amount of labor that goes into constructing actual polls, while that takes just a few keystrokes? No way in Hell. (Never mind the evidence that follower base is slanted GOP)
  24. Florida's in a dead heat. 98% of the vote is in with the GOP being 1% ahead for the Governorship. However, the areas that have not been counted have a slight blue lean it appears. This is crazy.
  25. Joe Donnelly is expected to lose the Indiana Senate race to the GOP candidate. With only 50% of the vote in however, there's still a chance for that to change. Florida is 86% in with the GOP having a lead of less than 1%. This will be tense. In good news, the Florida Voter Restoration amendment has passed. That's 1.5 million people who will be able to vote again in 2020.
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