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Legosi (Tani Coyote)

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Everything posted by Legosi (Tani Coyote)

  1. The fact Florida and Arizona could still end up going blue, ohohoho, that's a thing. States matter. The Senate, President and SCOTUS can say whatever they want, but it means nothing if the states go "nah." Look at pot. Look at sanctuary cities. The consent of the governed is twofold in a federal system like ours, and it means Democrats would be in a prime position to seize power at the state level while also keeping control of the House to cripple any federal agenda. It's also recognizing circumstances. It is very plausible the next Democratic President would come into power with little agenda setting power. They would be a pen and phone President from day one. Obama at least got to pass a healthcare bill before he became kind of useless. In addition, without the Senate, the SCOTUS stays red anyway. The Presidency is honestly fools' gold with current projections. The Dems get a prominent office and lose everything else. Now, should the Florida and Arizona races resolve in Dems' favor, the math changes dramatically. Dems would be in a position to lock in power after 2020 with major overhauls. They could expand the House (which would shift the power balance towards blue states in the House and Presidency), pass a new preclearance formula, and even pack the Court. But here's the clincher: they need to nuke the legislative filibuster to do these, which will have serious effects if they do not make sure to lock out the GOP as it currently is. Midterm politics being what they are, the Democrats would be at risk with losing the Senate in 2022, albeit only because their majority would be so small.
  2. There's really no winning here. You have to pick your poison. State offices matter. On a day to day basis, those are the offices that will affect you. The Obama years were great! ...except, not really, since the GOP controlled just about everything else and made countless people's lives Hell. Obama's policies were a small comfort to everyone who did not benefit from those (of which there were many, because the GOP controlled everything else). I can do this too. In the age of a conservative court, state government is especially relevant, because we're unlikely to see court interventions to help people like we saw under Obama. Institutional reform is the best way forward because it resolves the issue of the Supreme Court and the fact the Democratic Party is led by a bunch of dinosaurs simultaneously. 2022 race has some slight promise. If a Democrat wins in 2020, they will likely carry the Rust Belt, Iowa and Florida. That gives them a chance of numerous Senate pickups in the midterm... if we see a repeat of the consolidation we saw this year, where the GOP took Democratic seats in states Trump won. But those voters are still so swingy it's entirely possible the GOP will hold those seats and the 2020 Democrat will remain powerless for 8 years in a way even Obama did not have so badly.
  3. Keep wanting. Even if a Democrat takes the Presidency in 2020, he/she will be powerless. The GOP will maintain its Senate majority until 2022 at the earliest. And they will expand it in 2022 if a Democrat is President. Of the 4 most competitive seats in 2020 - Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and Iowa - only Colorado is a likely pickup. And the Democrats will lose Alabama. You may say it'd be better to have a Democratic President than nothing, but I'd rather take a Republican President with Democrats controlling everything else but the Senate. If the federal government must be dysfunctional, I'd rather the states be run by Democrats. Now, this may change if Democrats pull off surprise wins in this year's Florida and Arizona races (they're still being counted/recounted), but that's unlikely. We are in for the long haul with the GOP Senate. And only some ludicrous 50-state strategy will change that.
  4. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/08/politics/2018-elections-lucy-mcbath-karen-handel-concedes-georgia-congress/index.html Ossoff's revenge! Karen Handel has lost her bid for re-election in the Georgia 6th, after she narrowly defeated Democrat Jon Ossoff in what was once the most expensive House race in US history. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/08/politics/religious-makeup-2018/index.html Democrats have seen disappointment with how the Latino vote has not really turned into a second African-American vote like they had hoped. A lot of Latino voters have moved towards Protestantism and conservatism. But Democrats can get reassurance from another factor: the electorate's religiosity has continued to decline. Even if people are not atheist, they are increasingly agnostic or unaffiliated, demographics that lean Democratic. Within our lifetimes, it is very possible the religious right will become irrelevant within the GOP, and the GOP will move towards more libertarian positions. The gains they've been making with religious Latinos can only carry them so far. They're sooner or later going to need to rollback the Christianity and focus more on laissez-faire economics, something which would win them a lot of support among younger voters and a growing irreligious population. Funding the investigation as is would presumably require standard legislation that the Senate and Trump would not be on board with. But they most likely could acquire all of Mueller's files and do an independent investigation. This is a constitutional power of the House and Trump can't do shit about it. It does make me ponder if we'd get another "switch in time" moment. Chief Justice Roberts (who, funnily enough, shares the same last name as the justice who switched sides and kept FDR's plan from coming to fruition) can be a swingy vote due to his consideration of the Court's legitimacy, while Clarence Thomas, who swings liberal when it comes to African American issues, might make a surprise retirement under the next Democratic President. That said, constitutional reform really should be spearheaded. And as much as I hate to say it, Trump actually probably has the best position to do so, and has called for term limits (albeit for Congress) in the past. He is in a weird position where he can force Senate Republicans to go along with a plan, while House Democrats would also want the limits because it would avoid the conservative court issue. As for Trump, he'd go down in history as a President who oversaw a huge reform of American law, so he wins by merit of his ego getting stroked. Also, this would be the best way to get revenge on Mitch McConnell for not doing everything he wants. With how Trump has had his fascist agenda crippled by the rise of the Democratic House, he may very well pivot towards things a lot of people voted for him for in the first place: serious institutional reform and infrastructure spending. He is in a great position to reform the Supreme Court and campaign finance, if he cares to do so. Which of course, probably means he gets a second term. I can only hope 2020 Trump voters in the Rust Belt and Florida would be savvy enough to at least send him back to Washington with another Democratic House to keep his insanity in check. My greatest anxiety about Trump pursuing constitutional reform is attempting to eliminate birthright citizenship as part of a package that would also reform Congress and the Supreme Court.
  5. Went to a panel with some experts from the Brookings Institute. The Mueller question was raised. Even if Trump is bold enough to outright can Mueller, the House could still subpoena all of Mueller's findings. Too little, too late for the orange. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/07/politics/michigan-second-district-jason-lewis-called-women-sluts/index.html A GOP Congressman who is on the record for whining about being unable to call women "sluts" was thrown out of office by a woman. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/07/health/abortion-ballot-measures-amendments/index.html With the passage of strong pro-life amendments in West Virginia and Alabama, the table is set for an abortion case in the next year or two. All eyes will be on Chief Justice Roberts to possibly be a swing vote who ends up saving the Roe precedent. http://floridapolitics.com/archives/280659-bill-nelson-recount-attorney-were-doing-it-to-win Also, there's a chance that Florida's Senate seat may still end up going to Nelson. Votes are still coming in, and a lot of them are from blue districts. Scott's lead has shrunken to 30-35,000. Provisional ballots still need to be counted, and there are also early vote and overseas ballots that have not been counted.
  6. Arizona Senate race is still too close to call. The Green Party may have actually stolen the race from the Democrats. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/07/michigan-house-representatives-senate-control-results-winners/1825497002/ Michigan's state house will remain in GOP hands, but the GOP majority has shifted from 9 to 4. However, the current GOP speaker will be retiring soon as he did not run for re-election; he was the one blocking popular vote legislation from going through. Some predictions for how this election will frame the next two years: -If Michigan passes the NPVIC, expect other states to take it up. It is very possible 2020 could be decided by popular vote instead of the Electoral College. Florida's restoration of voting rights to 1.5 million people will quite possibly convince the national GOP to slowly begin backing the national popular vote. -Trump's likely move to the center could pave the way for his reelection as voters in swing states re-elect him but also give him a Democratic Congress to keep him in check. -Nevada's likely passage of a public option for healthcare means other states might try to do the same. -The legalization of marijuana and expansion of Medicaid in several states is likely to reshape national debate on both. 5 GOP Senators will be in an uncomfortable position when it comes to repealing Obamacare, and the legalization of marijuana is likely to influence the votes of 5 more.
  7. Dems are up to 220 seats. They've taken the House. The GOP has seized Missouri, North Dakota, Florida, and Indiana in the Senate. However, they lost Nevada. Arizona is still too close to call. California remains a relatively tight race, 54-46 towards Feinstein with 44% of ballots counted. At the state level, the Democrats have taken Governorships in Nevada, New Mexico, Kansas, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan, for a total of 6. Were the Presidential election held today, Trump would have lost, as the Democrats conquered the three Great Lakes states that gave him the Presidency. The Republicans still control several northeastern Governorships, but a lot of them are RINOs. As for state legislatures: the Democrats have taken control of New Hampshire's, New York's, Minnesota's, Maine's, and Colorado's. Democrats are now in a serious position of power in states that total 94 electoral votes. They need to pass the NPVIC in states totaling 98 electoral votes to make it nationwide. If they could get Virginia in 2019's race? They would be able to hit that threshold. The 2020 race has a serious chance of being decided by popular vote.
  8. Besides the biggest objective of blocking the more extreme parts of the GOP's agenda, it can launch numerous investigations which might reveal embarrassing things about Trump and his allies. In addition, the proposed rules change in the House, if it passes, will allow bipartisan Senate legislation to easily pass the House, meaning we could actually get some meaningful reform on immigration and healthcare.
  9. https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/senate Nevada results are finally coming in; the polls closed over 3 hours ago, but so many people showed up to vote that they are only now finishing. Progressive Democrat De Leon is close to Dianne Feinstein in California; ironically, he is drawing a lot of his support from the redder districts. They hate the established Democrat so much they'll support a further left underdog. The race is 53-47 towards Feinstein with under 1/3 of the vote counted.
  10. Red, red, and more red. Only place in the South to return us a blue statewide race was West Virginia, Virginia and Kansas (!).
  11. A few hours, possibly. But Dems are up to 188 seats and the GOP 172. Most of the remaining seats are in blue-leaning areas, so short of serious shenanigans, the Democrats will take the House.
  12. https://www.clickondetroit.com/legislature-results-2018 The Michigan state legislature is a tight race. Right now it's looking evenly split! The current GOP majority leader is refusing to hold a vote on the National Popular Vote Compact, even though it's supported by both parties. If the GOP loses control of the Michigan House, it is possible Michigan will join it. If Michigan passes it, empowered Democrats nationwide may try to pass similar measures. It's entirely possible that 2020 will be the first race decided by popular vote.
  13. https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/ballot-measures Michigan and Utah are on track to legalize recreational marijuana. Gerrymandering will be eliminated in Michigan, Colorado, and Utah with the establishment of redistricting commissions. Nebraska looks ready to expand Medicaid.
  14. Meanwhile, Colorado has elected the first openly gay male Governor!
  15. The Dems and GOP are tied in House results, at 98 each. There are still 239 seats to go. The odds of a Dem House are looking good, even as it looks like red state Dems are about to be annihilated.
  16. Do you never check the weather because sometimes it's wrong? Polling is a science. It is entirely about making predictions. This is why the margin of error is there. They can only get it so right because of the number of variables involved. Plus, let's think here. Clinton would have won had we been using the same electoral system as any other country. She only lost because of a system cooked up to protect the interests of people who thought they had the right to own other human beings.
  17. Given the amount of labor that goes into constructing actual polls, while that takes just a few keystrokes? No way in Hell. (Never mind the evidence that follower base is slanted GOP)
  18. Dems have some gains, but nothing eyepopping. It is quite possible they will fall just short of a majority.
  19. Florida's in a dead heat. 98% of the vote is in with the GOP being 1% ahead for the Governorship. However, the areas that have not been counted have a slight blue lean it appears. This is crazy.
  20. Joe Donnelly is expected to lose the Indiana Senate race to the GOP candidate. With only 50% of the vote in however, there's still a chance for that to change. Florida is 86% in with the GOP having a lead of less than 1%. This will be tense. In good news, the Florida Voter Restoration amendment has passed. That's 1.5 million people who will be able to vote again in 2020.
  21. https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/indiana/ Polls have closed in Indiana and Kentucky. You can check the live results as they come in here! Indiana will be the first real test of whether or not the Democrats can retake the Senate.
  22. Everyone else: "My favorite Batman villain is The Joker"

    Me, furry trash: "Okay but what about that college student who turned himself into a fox to get revenge on everyone who bullied him."

    1. Polkadi~☆

      Polkadi~☆

      can we get a batman movie with this villain please?

      a-animated, too?

      ...

      for no particular reason

    2. Legosi (Tani Coyote)

      Legosi (Tani Coyote)

      1cfMBDC.jpgJust in case nobody believes me

      Also his evil plan consisted of transforming every college student into an anthro as well

    3. Ryannumber1gamer

      Ryannumber1gamer

      I’m honestly surprised it was this and not the episode of Batman Beyond where a villain spliced people with animal DNA.

  23. https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/06/what-time-do-polls-close-2018-poll-closing-times-by-state-map-945421 Breakdown of when polls close, all in Eastern Time. Highlights: Indiana closes at 6 PM EST. That's one of the vulnerable Democratic seats and might give us an early idea of where the Senate is headed. Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and Virginia at 7 PM. Florida's going to be hugely important to the Dems for both its state races and its suffrage restoration initiative. But if Dems do well in Florida and Georgia, it means there is a serious wedge in the South that could pave the way for Democratic gains in future races. 7:30 PM, West Virginia and Ohio. Two more vulnerable Democrats. 8 PM is when things really get juicy. Texas, North Dakota, and Mississippi, all key Senate races. If Dems can win in one of these states, their odds of a Senate majority skyrocket. Last big wave of note is the 10 PM polls. This is when Nevada and Arizona come in, and those are key races to watch.
  24. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/04/politics/sonny-perdue-cotton-pickin-florida-governor-andrew-gillum-ron-desantis/index.html Still racking up those potential dogwhistles. In Florida's Governor race, the federal Secretary of Agriculture came down to argue for the election of the Republican candidate DeSantis. He said the race is "cotton pickin' important." While some have said the expression has a long history in the South that has nothing to do with slavery, the fact the Democrat is black makes it still a very poor choice of words in a race where white supremacist groups have been airing ads. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/04/politics/ip-forecast/ Trump's 2018 rallies tend to talk about him a lot more than whichever candidate he is ostensibly trying to help. Whether this backfires on the GOP or not remains to be seen. In addition, the triangulation continues. Democratic leaders in Congress are being approached by Trump administration officials to try and work out an infrastructure deal. There is full anticipation that the House will be lost in less than 48 hours. Robert Mueller has been quiet due to Justice Department guidelines that call on prosecutors to suppress information for 60 days leading up to an election. It is quite possible some major news could drop shortly after the polls close.
  25. Oh, I wasn't disagreeing with that. Just mentioning it should not be seen as an end goal. A lot of people seem content to just pass instant runoff ballots and then hang up on their hats on election reform. A full shift towards multi-member PR should be the end goal. Every vote really does matter under that system.
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