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Legosi (Tani Coyote)

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Everything posted by Legosi (Tani Coyote)

  1. Meanwhile, Colorado has elected the first openly gay male Governor!
  2. The Dems and GOP are tied in House results, at 98 each. There are still 239 seats to go. The odds of a Dem House are looking good, even as it looks like red state Dems are about to be annihilated.
  3. Do you never check the weather because sometimes it's wrong? Polling is a science. It is entirely about making predictions. This is why the margin of error is there. They can only get it so right because of the number of variables involved. Plus, let's think here. Clinton would have won had we been using the same electoral system as any other country. She only lost because of a system cooked up to protect the interests of people who thought they had the right to own other human beings.
  4. Given the amount of labor that goes into constructing actual polls, while that takes just a few keystrokes? No way in Hell. (Never mind the evidence that follower base is slanted GOP)
  5. Dems have some gains, but nothing eyepopping. It is quite possible they will fall just short of a majority.
  6. Florida's in a dead heat. 98% of the vote is in with the GOP being 1% ahead for the Governorship. However, the areas that have not been counted have a slight blue lean it appears. This is crazy.
  7. Joe Donnelly is expected to lose the Indiana Senate race to the GOP candidate. With only 50% of the vote in however, there's still a chance for that to change. Florida is 86% in with the GOP having a lead of less than 1%. This will be tense. In good news, the Florida Voter Restoration amendment has passed. That's 1.5 million people who will be able to vote again in 2020.
  8. https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/indiana/ Polls have closed in Indiana and Kentucky. You can check the live results as they come in here! Indiana will be the first real test of whether or not the Democrats can retake the Senate.
  9. Everyone else: "My favorite Batman villain is The Joker"

    Me, furry trash: "Okay but what about that college student who turned himself into a fox to get revenge on everyone who bullied him."

    1. Polkadi~☆


      can we get a batman movie with this villain please?

      a-animated, too?


      for no particular reason

    2. Legosi (Tani Coyote)

      Legosi (Tani Coyote)

      1cfMBDC.jpgJust in case nobody believes me

      Also his evil plan consisted of transforming every college student into an anthro as well

    3. Ryannumber1gamer


      I’m honestly surprised it was this and not the episode of Batman Beyond where a villain spliced people with animal DNA.

  10. https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/06/what-time-do-polls-close-2018-poll-closing-times-by-state-map-945421 Breakdown of when polls close, all in Eastern Time. Highlights: Indiana closes at 6 PM EST. That's one of the vulnerable Democratic seats and might give us an early idea of where the Senate is headed. Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and Virginia at 7 PM. Florida's going to be hugely important to the Dems for both its state races and its suffrage restoration initiative. But if Dems do well in Florida and Georgia, it means there is a serious wedge in the South that could pave the way for Democratic gains in future races. 7:30 PM, West Virginia and Ohio. Two more vulnerable Democrats. 8 PM is when things really get juicy. Texas, North Dakota, and Mississippi, all key Senate races. If Dems can win in one of these states, their odds of a Senate majority skyrocket. Last big wave of note is the 10 PM polls. This is when Nevada and Arizona come in, and those are key races to watch.
  11. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/04/politics/sonny-perdue-cotton-pickin-florida-governor-andrew-gillum-ron-desantis/index.html Still racking up those potential dogwhistles. In Florida's Governor race, the federal Secretary of Agriculture came down to argue for the election of the Republican candidate DeSantis. He said the race is "cotton pickin' important." While some have said the expression has a long history in the South that has nothing to do with slavery, the fact the Democrat is black makes it still a very poor choice of words in a race where white supremacist groups have been airing ads. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/04/politics/ip-forecast/ Trump's 2018 rallies tend to talk about him a lot more than whichever candidate he is ostensibly trying to help. Whether this backfires on the GOP or not remains to be seen. In addition, the triangulation continues. Democratic leaders in Congress are being approached by Trump administration officials to try and work out an infrastructure deal. There is full anticipation that the House will be lost in less than 48 hours. Robert Mueller has been quiet due to Justice Department guidelines that call on prosecutors to suppress information for 60 days leading up to an election. It is quite possible some major news could drop shortly after the polls close.
  12. Oh, I wasn't disagreeing with that. Just mentioning it should not be seen as an end goal. A lot of people seem content to just pass instant runoff ballots and then hang up on their hats on election reform. A full shift towards multi-member PR should be the end goal. Every vote really does matter under that system.
  13. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/10/31/can-ranked-choice-voting-end-ugly-election-battles-this-november-maine-hopes-find-out/?utm_term=.6488380e0736 The two party system could actually crumble sooner rather than later. The Maine Supreme Court ruled that while the ranked choice voting initiative ran afoul of the state constitution for statewide races, it does not do so for federal races. So Maine residents can rank the candidates for Senate and House races. This could possibly lead to something odd, but there's only a handful of House seats and one Senate race (which is already held by an independent), so we will be unlikely to see anything major. However, the implementation of instant runoff ballots for the first time in a federal election could possibly spread to other states. I would not be surprised if the Democrats and Republicans join forces next Congress to pass a law requiring all federal elections to have plurality winners. This is within their power: Congress passed a law long ago mandating the use of single member districts. When it comes to determining the rules for federal elections, Congress has supremacy barring a constitutional question. The caveat to all this is a look at Australia's electoral history. While the Senate has seen enormous gains by third parties under its PR-based system for each state, the single member, instant runoff districts in the House have helped keep two parties as the dominant forces. Instant runoff ballots help open up the gates of power, but proportional multi-member districts are a must to break them down. If we switch to instant runoff, we would likely see Socialists, Greens, Libertarians, etc. gain a few seats in the House, but the GOP and Democrats would remain the dominant forces. There is serious inertia to the two party system unless you really tear the foundation apart.
  14. My sister had an early voting station on her campus 3 days in a row while she was there. She declined to vote. I am an angry yote.

  15. Whelp, early voting has closed in most states or will close today. We are in the final stretch at last and have more of an idea of the election. The verdict? ...still way too close to call pretty much everywhere. Every vote (or enough people voting one way, rather) still can make a difference. The peril of looking too much into early voting is that it's possible they are just people who would have voted on Election Day. So higher Republican turnout (which is the case in a lot of places, contrary to the common wisdom that Democrats rely more on the early vote) could just mean lower Republican turnout on Tuesday. https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/02/blue-wave-arizona-democrats-see-major-surge-early-voting-turnout/1860936002/ In Arizona, Republicans usually lead by 12% in midterm early votes. They are leading by only 8%. That 4 percent shift is more than enough to change the outcome of many key races. There is a strong possibility a Democrat will win, but Jon Kyl will step down as a Senator days before the Democrat takes office, allowing the outgoing Governor to appoint a further right Republican. Now that McCain is gone, there's a serious chance the GOP Senate will pass an ACA repeal in 2019. We can only hope the House flips so that it has no chance in going anywhere. https://www.news-press.com/story/news/2018/11/02/record-early-vote-florida-offers-good-news-democrats-and-gop/1857263002/ Florida has good news for both parties. Democrats are hitting records, but the GOP still leads. 4.1 million Floridians have early voted compared to 3.1 million in the last midterm. However, evidence points to independent voters having a Democratic lean. Florida will remain nailbiting into the wee hours of Tuesday night. There is always warning, however, that nothing is over until the polls close: 2016 had Democrats way ahead of the GOP in early voting, but the GOP swamped the polls on the actual day that it gave Trump the state. If you have not voted yet, please do so. https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/30/18037872/texas-voting-machine-hart-eslate-voting-ballot-switch-problems Some reports on the Texas voting machine issue. It just old, overly sensitive technology rather than foul play in all likelihood. The ballots also tend to get switched either way due to how the glitch works, and from what can be seen, the malfunctioning machines are a tiny portion of the total. It is extremely unlikely that the issue, while concerning, will change the results. Besides being an argument to modernize the voting machines, it also speaks to the issues of not having a paper trail when voting machines are in use.
  16. At least in Florida, the racist ads were not affiliated with the actual candidate. Here, the Tennessee GOP candidate for the Senate outright lies and says the caravan is full of "people from the Middle East." This is just disturbing.
  17. https://www.coloradoindependent.com/2018/10/30/democrats-and-republicans-nearly-tied-in-early-balloting-with-800000-votes-cast-in-colorado/ Some good news from Colorado. Republicans are trailing their 2014 margins by 50,000 votes, while Democrats are ahead by 25,000. Republicans are still returning ballots in larger numbers, but only by about 1,000 votes. Early voting is a strange beast. While the popular wisdom is that it is a tool for Democrats to turn out their base, increasingly Republicans are the ones who take advantage of it. This is consistent with how older, wealthier voters would have more free time and so could vote the moment polls open, while Democrats probably set aside a particular day. All this in mind, while the GOP is leading in most early voting contests, enough Democrats are still casting ballots that things could radically change come Election Day. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/31/politics/cnn-poll-arizona-nevada-senate-races/index.html The Democratic candidates have narrow leads in both Nevada and Arizona's races. If these races go the Democrats' way, the likely loss of North Dakota will put the Senate at an even split unless Democrats pull off upsets in Texas, Mississippi or Tennessee (all of which are possible).
  18. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/31/politics/early-vote-as-of-wednesday-morning/index.html Breakdown of early voting results in several key states. Women have voted more than men, even as the early voting population skews older. Georgia and Texas are showing considerable youth turnout. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/31/politics/nancy-pelosi-house-democrats-midterms-voting/index.html Nancy Pelosi is speaking with increased confidence the Democrats will win the House 6 days from today. Hopefully this does not tempt fate.
  19. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/30/politics/medicaid-expansion-idaho/index.html Obamacare's safety might just be assured by the least likely of places: Idaho. The state's GOP Governor has endorsed a Medicaid expansion ballot measure. If it passes, the GOP will be in an extremely uncomfortable position with all its repeal talk. So many people across so many states are benefiting from Medicaid under the new rules that to propose repealing them will go over about as well as discussing Medicare cuts. Nebraska, Montana, and Utah are also discussing Medicaid expansion on their ballots. This year could see a wave that basically sucks all the impetus out from repeal efforts. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/30/politics/steve-king-nrcc-chair-white-supremacy/index.html Rep. Steve King's campaign is falling apart ever since he revealed his power level (that is, he is so openly white nationalist that even the complicit GOP is distancing itself from him). He has lost endorsements and financial backing from several companies as well as the House GOP's fundraising arm. https://www.nj.com/marijuana/2018/10/top_lawmakers_decline_to_say_when_marijuana_legali.html Legal marijuana votes in New Jersey have been delayed yet again. At the rate they're going, Trump and Congress will legalize pot before they do.
  20. He's desperately trying to fire up his base to turn out and vote for the midterms because while he will still be free to pack the Court come January, he will quite possibly lose the House, which means his whole agenda disappears. So he's going back to his 2016 strategy: stoke racist fears and hope they push him over the finish line. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/10/30/uncertainties_loom_as_midterms_enter_final_stretch.html Republicans are still outperforming Democrats in most early voting returns. With one week to go however, a lot can still change. It's also noted that historically a significant number (around 15%) of suburban Republican voters have backed Democrats in midterm elections. The party identification does not necessarily translate into votes, and in most states the margins are close enough that defecting Republicans change the outcome. The typical suburban Republican is more of a libertarian than a conservative, liking the GOP's economic policies but not particularly caring for its social agenda. With Trump in power to guard against tax raises, it's not unfathomable some Republicans will peel off and put a Democratic House into power to keep his crazier ideas out of play. Trump is undoubtedly doing everything he can to prevent a last minute Democratic recovery.
  21. In fairness, a lot of voting machines print up a paper ballot that the voter has to verify before they cast their ballot. They are also disconnected from a network. This isn't a voting machine issue so much as it's Texas' limited government bullshit biting it in the ass when it doesn't want to fork over some money to modernize infrastructure. Indeed, Texas is one of the states with voting machines that do not have paper trails. That raises a serious specter of fraud. Most states still have paper ballots as their primary method, all this said. Colorado adopted opt-out mail-in ballots as the primary voting method prior to 2014, however, so it's quite possible voting machines will end up being phased out by the simple fact with three states having opt-out mail-in ballots now, it might catch on in other states. And indeed, there have been movements in several states to move to vote by mail. VBM raises its own issues of possible fraud or intimidation, but there does not seem to be conclusive evidence of it happening.
  22. The articles goes into detail that it's unlikely any attempt to rig the election, but more the fact Texas is using very old voting systems. Think how Florida's 2000 ballots left much to be desired. In both cases, the ballots are seen as having helped the GOP, but I don't think that's as much as by design as things like voter ID laws. There are probably cases of these machines switching GOP votes to Democrat as well. Now, we could absolutely pin partisan blame on the GOP for the problem as a whole. They're the ones who stress smaller budgets for things besides police and the military, and that means much-needed funds for voting infrastructure are often not there.
  23. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/25/politics/house-2018-midterm-election/index.html Interesting analysis on why a Democratic wave is still possible. Democrats are contesting a record number of seats. Around 75 Democratic incumbents have no challenger, compared to just 10 Republicans. With so many seats being contested, upsets are possible. Indeed, prior wave elections had a common feature: high competition against the dominant party. In 2006, 22 Republicans were running unopposed for House seats. The House is very much in play, particularly since the 2006 Democratic majority scored upsets in some red districts. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/25/politics/gingrich-kavanaugh-fight-wapo/index.html So Gingrich basically confirmed he understands Kavanaugh is a partisan hack. He implied that if the Democrats subpoena Trump's tax returns, the fight will go to the Supreme Court, with the implication Kavanaugh would take revenge. Because you should totally say holding grudges is an okay thing for judges to do.
  24. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/25/politics/false-flag-theory-mail-bombs-cnn-democrats/index.html Meanwhile, Rush Limbaugh and co. are doing what a lot of conservative pundits do: banking on "maybe" instead of actual evidence. They're saying this could be a false flag by Democratic operatives to make it seem the right and left are equally violent (the conservative pundits' constructed reality is only the left is violent, of course). They're citing things like Trump drawing larger crowds than Obama and higher Republican early voting rates as evidence Democrats are scared and would turn towards shit like this to try and stir up turnout. Limbaugh's statement is particularly amusing because he repeats the same bullshit, debunked lie that Democrats abuse early voting to commit widespread fraud by having undocumented people and dead people vote. I ask this question of Limbaugh and all who think voter fraud is a serious, statistically significant issue: if Democrats are so damned awesome at fraud, how come they lose so badly? The red wave of 2010, when Republicans came into power and could put in all these ostensibly "anti-fraud" measures, happened in an environment when Democrats had all the cards. As mass fraudsters, they should have been able to prevent that. Vote rigging is easy; we see it all across the world. So why didn't they? Because it's bullshit, that's why. Also, cherry on top here. You know who else passed technically not discriminatory laws and said it was all in the name of preventing fraud? The Jim Crow South. Good day.
  25. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/23/politics/donald-trump-proof-unknown-middle-easterners-migrant-caravan/index.html As he openly comments on Twitter about sending the military down the border, Trump has admitted he has no evidence of terrorists or criminals in the caravan heading for the border. He openly says in this Q and A that there could be, that it's a hunch, etc. Because hunches are what policy should be based on. But then again, possibility of bad behavior, rather than proof, is the basis of a lot of cornerstone GOP policies like gutting welfare, overpolicing, and voter ID laws. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/23/politics/andrew-gillum-texts-hamilton-corruption-investigation/index.html The Florida Governor race is a damned joke. What's the topic of controversy? ...whether the Democratic candidate lied about the source of a ticket to Hamilton. Evidence has found he received it from an undercover FBI agent. He says his brother got it for him, and that he was under the impression that his brother had in fact arranged it with a friend. The GOP is seizing on this as evidence as enormous corruption on par with all the shit Trump and co. are doing. What a joke. https://www.coloradoindependent.com/2018/10/23/colorado-early-voting-returns-2018/ Republicans are currently leading ballot returns in Colorado. Since the whole state is based on mail-in ballots, there is concern. On the other hand, far fewer people have voted than at the same point in 2016. With two weeks to go, a lot can change. Probably the most epic election ad ever.
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