The North Korea Thread: Threats, Propaganda and a brewing Holocaust

[CrownSlayers Shadow]

A cakewalk victory would be the best case, but while I don't think it will be that easy I think you're giving the North way too much credit than they deserve.

 

The main cards they had were China and their nukes, and since China will abandon them if they strike first they're left with nukes. And even with nukes, they don't have a lot of options in delivering them, because they don't have decent missile tech to launch it meaning they'll need to find other ways to deliver it, like a plane (which considering how old many of them are, might get shot down easily), or sneaking it through by a boat.

 

They lack a lot of the stuff needed to support the kind of war they're gearing up for, and considering their economic position and output I'm thinking it's gonna be a rather short war.

Edited March 8, 2013 by ChaosSupremeSonic

[Tani Coyote]

Saddam Hussein's Iraq had one of the world's largest armies. It practically melted in the face of the 2003 invasion; it was completely and utterly decimated at minimal American casualties. A large part of this was early American air superiority, as memory serves, the same thing that helped in the first Gulf.

 

If China and Russia back up the North it could result in some problems, but overall I don't think North Korea's going to fare much better. The conventional army and government will collapse very quickly, and then it becomes a war against an insurgency. The tough part of modern wars isn't the actual combat - it's controlling an entire population once you've defeated your enemy. We can identify the DPRK's bases, their leaders, their factories. We can't identify who's a loving father or student by day and a ruthless insurgent by night. There are only two ways to defeat an insurgency: you must win them over to your side, or ... well, you can probably guess. It's not exactly pretty.

 

We'd likely need to cut some sort of deal with China/Russia if we actually sought to occupy the North. Some sort of special deal. I think they like having their clout over the area, so they'll need to benefit in some manner if they'll let us just waltz in. And even that's tough - the US could sell Taiwan down the river in exchange for China forgiving some of its debt, but we haven't because it would damage our relations with all other allies. Reputation's important.

Edited March 8, 2013 by Ogilvie Maurice

[Elseb]

 

Well America, this is what you're dealing with. Kim Jung-un could drive a car at 3 and finished a rubix cube in three seconds when he was two year old.

 

 

 

 

[Tani Coyote]

I always wonder how much the North Korean people actually believe this bullcrap. Are they really so in the dark about human capabilities, or is it just forceful acknowledgement for their own well-being?

 

Given the economic nature of North Korea... would they even know what a Rubix Cube is?

[Patticus]

North Koreans who haven't left the country, which is most of them, have been fed bullshit propaganda for so long that they just don't have anything else to believe.

[Stacy]

A cakewalk victory would be the best case, but while I don't think it will be that easy I think you're giving the North way too much credit than they deserve.

 

The main cards they had were China and their nukes, and since China will abandon them if they strike first they're left with nukes. And even with nukes, they don't have a lot of options in delivering them, because they don't have decent missile tech to launch it meaning they'll need to find other ways to deliver it, like a plane (which considering how old many of them are, might get shot down easily), or sneaking it through by a boat.

 

They lack a lot of the stuff needed to support the kind of war they're gearing up for, and considering their economic position and output I'm thinking it's gonna be a rather short war.

 

I am not giving them credit I am acknowledging that they might be able to put strong resistance and use unconventional tactics that prolong and complicate the conflict. 

 

China is a shit position either way. If it supports Korea it loses the support of the West. If it supports the West North Korea gets pushed further and further into a corner where it sees that war is the only answer leading to a conflict right near China's door step. 

 

They lack modern military equipment yes. By they do produce tons of their own weapons in underground factories and they even sell some of it to other countries mostly third world. They produce something like 200,000 Type 58 Assault Rifles yearly. 300 heavy Guns, 200 Tanks, 400 armoured cars and amphibious craft as well more. Not mention the shit they have bought off China and Russia.

 

This a country where the Cold War hasn't ended. 

 

It doesn't help that right now US and other Western countries like the UK are cutting their Military budgets. Will this effect the possible conflict probably not but in times like this with events in places like Mali, Syria, Pakistan and the possible Nuclear threat from Iran. Not to mention Russia and the US still bicker about who has the biggest military cock.

 

If this war happens it won't be like Panama or Grenada it won't be like Afghanistan. It might be similar to the Iraq War only with a larger more paranoid opponent who has been prepared for war for 60 years.

 

Where talking Total War here between the North and the South here. Scary shit.

[Badnik Zero]

Seoul's defence ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said that if the North were to carry out a nuclear attack on South Korea it would become "extinct from the Earth by the will of mankind".

 

I knew Koreans had a flair for the dramatic but goddaaaamn.

[Tornado]

Sounds like something Samuel L. Jackson would say before shooting someone.

[Patticus]

I knew Koreans had a flair for the dramatic but goddaaaamn.

 

Fancy giving a source link?

 

 

There are 30,000 or so American troops on the Korean peninsular, all at the DMZ. Can you imagine being there, with the full weight of NK's armies threatening to steamroll into you?

[Elseb]

[Patticus]

Some interesting reading and viewing...

Despite the general fuel and ammunition shortages for training, it is estimated that the wartime strategic reserves of food for the army are sufficient to feed the regular troops for 500 days, while fuel and ammunition - amounting to 1.5 million and 1.7 million tonnes respectively - are sufficient to wage a full-scale war for 100 days.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People's_Army

 

Heaven help whatever SEAL team they send in to kill Jong-Un.

[Old dead account]

Some interesting reading and viewing...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People's_Army https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jM9Qzs9isYHeaven help whatever SEAL team they send in to kill Jong-Un.

Christ, dude. These guys look like they can give even some early saiyan saga DBZ fighters a run for their money. But I doubt they can withstand bullets, throat slits and precise pressure point striking.

[Patticus]

Well, obviously not, but I think they're just crazy enough to make any attempt on Kim Jong-un's life a risky risky affair.

[SonikkuForever]

Ugh. I wish North Korea (well, it's leadership at least) would just go away. They're a blight on the human race, and genuinely the closest thing the world has to a dystopian evil empire. It's always boggled my mind how a regime that tests lethal gas on families, uses civilians for target practice and slave labor, and withholds food to the point that people are forced to eat their children can exist in the modern world.

 

Of course, even when North Korea does fall (which I honestly hope happens soon), there's the question of what to do with the refugees, which I'm pretty sure nobody wants.

[Tani Coyote]

Of course, even when North Korea does fall (which I honestly hope happens soon), there's the question of what to do with the refugees, which I'm pretty sure nobody wants.

 

That's actually one of the biggest issues with a Korean War. The South would win inevitably but the question is: would it want to? North Korea's government would be in shambles and they'd have to step up to the plate. That could possibly prevent an insurgency, but then they'd have the monumental task of making an area the size of half the new country productive.

 

My guess would be the DPRK regime collapses and some puppet state agreed on by China and the USA's put in.

[Patticus]

If the North Korean government outright collapses, I would think that South Korea would simply assume control over the entire territory, unifying the peninsular under one government. That would be the goal of any resumption of hostilities, and I can't see it not being met.

South Korea is a very advanced country, and I'm sure that it is well within its capabilities to bring the northern region under its remit quickly and effectively once the war is done with.
 
I would be very surprised if South Korea didn't have comprehensive 'bringing the north up to speed' and 'making sure the poor and hungry of the north are taken good care of' plans, to be honest.

[Tani Coyote]

South Korea is a very advanced country, and I'm sure that it is well within its capabilities to bring the northern region under its remit quickly and effectively once the war is done with.

 

I would be very surprised if South Korea didn't have comprehensive 'bringing the north up to speed' and 'making sure the poor and hungry of the north are taken good care of' plans, to be honest.

 

With how large the gap between the two is I don't think it would be that easy. I suppose it would be comparable to if the United States suddenly annexed Mexico; we'd have a hell of a task on our hands trying to smooth out the differences. It would likely require considerable investment to develop the North. This sounds easy on paper, but economics often gives way to political realities and that's where the big issues come up. I'm sure South Korea has its own branch of people arguing against large deficits and the like, something the development of the North would certainly require to be done in any reasonable length of time.

[Patticus]

Well, it is a huge gap, and you are right that the investment of time, manpower and other resources would be significant over a long period of time. Even so, however, North Korea is actually just a little bit smaller than the US state of New Mexico, and it doesn't come close to approaching the size of the actual country Mexico (which is a little over 16 times larger). So, despite the vast gulf separating the two nations developmentally, and considering the not insignificant amount of investment that would be required to bring the north into line with the south, the costs, time etc involved would be a whole lot less than if the US annexed Mexico.

[Tornado]

Mexico also wasn't part of the United States that was politically separated 60 years ago; plus there is still all that resentment over Texas and whatnot.

 

 

You want a comparison, then East and West Germany is your huckleberry. North and South Korea are a bit more extreme than that, but not to the extent of the US and Mexico.

[Tani Coyote]

Well, it is a huge gap, and you are right that the investment of time, manpower and other resources would be significant over a long period of time. Even so, however, North Korea is actually just a little bit smaller than the US state of New Mexico, and it doesn't come close to approaching the size of the actual country Mexico (which is a little over 16 times larger). So, despite the vast gulf separating the two nations developmentally, and considering the not insignificant amount of investment that would be required to bring the north into line with the south, the costs, time etc involved would be a whole lot less than if the US annexed Mexico.

 

Well yes, on an absolute scale it doesn't compare. Relative scales are what's important, however; compare how your income doubling sounds good on paper, but if prices double at the same time it's meaningless.

 

American per capita GDP versus Mexican: $49,601 vs. $15,177

South Korean per capita versus North: $32,431 vs. $2,400

 

Whereas the USA's GDP/capita is 3.2x larger than Mexico's, South Korea is 13.5x larger than the North's.

 

By this measure, while the absolute amount that would have to be paid is certainly less, it would be greater per capita to develop the North. The gap is gigantic, and I presume it would be funded with American and Chinese money. That would probably be China's trump card in the situation: as one of the few countries that regularly has money to spend without borrowing, it would likely bankroll a lot of it, giving it enormous economic clout. So while the North would nominally have become aligned with the USA, the unified Korea would probably be more middle of the road due to its economic concerns. I think it's a plausible compromise.

[Patticus]

South Korea is, besides Japan, an American-made bulwark against the spread of Chinese and Russian influence over the western Pacific, which is a national security issue for the US, as the memory of Pearl Harbor and the near loss of naval control over the Pacific at Midway continue to linger in the national consciousness. China might indeed have a lot of money to burn, and that look quite tempting, but whether the US will tolerate that money and the influence it will surely buy in the northern Korean peninsular is another matter entirely.

[Tani Coyote]

South Korea is, besides Japan, an American-made bulwark against the spread of Chinese and Russian influence over the western Pacific, which is a national security issue for the US, as the memory of Pearl Harbor and the near loss of naval control over the Pacific at Midway continue to linger in the national consciousness. China might indeed have a lot of money to burn, and that look quite tempting, but whether the US will tolerate that money and the influence it will surely buy in the northern Korean peninsular is another matter entirely.

 

If that's the case, I presume China will seek alternate means to keep some sort of clout over the North. They like their client as much as we like ours, I'd presume. Though with the business mentality of the modern PRC, I wouldn't be surprised if they decided the DPRK isn't what they'd like to chalk up as one of their "operating expenses."

 

That's China at least. Russia seems to delight in antagonising the US for the sake of it at times so I presume they're not so easily won over.

[Patticus]

These days, China seems to be pretty fed up of NK, even going to far as to approve of the new sanctions being aimed at the country and its foreign assets. They seem to have been drifting further and further apart since Kim Jong-un took power, to be honest, and if NK launches a war on SK or the US, it will be very much on its own. If or when Korea becomes unified, China will likely see the development of the north as an opportunity to align itself with a country far less likely to embarrass it on the world stage, and to in turn have that country align itself more with China. America isn't going to like that one bit, and it remains to be seen in what way it'll react, but I can see your prediction (Korea becoming aligned some way between the US and China) bearing some fruit.

American, Chinese, Russian and Japanese spies are going to be crawling all over the region. It might make for an interesting drama series.

[Tani Coyote]

These days, China seems to be pretty fed up of NK, even going to far as to approve of the new sanctions being aimed at the country and its foreign assets. They seem to have been drifting further and further apart since Kim Jong-un took power, to be honest, and if NK launches a war on SK or the US, it will be very much on its own. If or when Korea becomes unified, China will likely see the development of the north as an opportunity to align itself with a country far less likely to embarrass it on the world stage, and to in turn have that country align itself more with China. America isn't going to like that one bit, and it remains to be seen in what way it'll react, but I can see your prediction (Korea becoming aligned some way between the US and China) bearing some fruit.

 

Indeed. While South Korea's a "client" of sorts, the United States seldom dominates its allies the same way the USSR did its so-called friends. They are ultimately free to pursue their own policies and I can see them taking a lot of Chinese aid. The USA would probably just ramp up its own aid budget to compete to ensure there's no too much influence lost.

 

The model can work though - Australia's close to both the USA and China. The good news is the rivalry between the USA and China is nowhere near as caustic as the one between the USA and the USSR was during the Cold War. We're more interested in surpassing each other while continuing to maintain relations rather than praying for the other's imminent demise.

 

So in all likelihood China will kick the DPRK to the curb and instead focus on garnering favor with South Korea. North Korea's bad for business, and becoming friendly with the South early on (even if in secret) would have long-term rewards when the South's inevitably victorious. With the extensive brainwashing though, I wouldn't be surprised if an insurgency rages in the North for quite some time, at least until they finally understand the Kims have been lying to them since day one about what's outside the country.

 

American, Chinese, Russian and Japanese spies are going to be crawling all over the region. It might make for an interesting drama series.

 

Knowing Hollywood we'll see it being made right as the conflict's being fought.

[Stacy]

Ugh. I wish North Korea (well, it's leadership at least) would just go away. They're a blight on the human race, and genuinely the closest thing the world has to a dystopian evil empire. It's always boggled my mind how a regime that tests lethal gas on families, uses civilians for target practice and slave labor, and withholds food to the point that people are forced to eat their children can exist in the modern world.

 

Are you related to Ronald Reagan by any chance?  

 

The South will win if it gets full commitment from the US and its Allies. The US might also need to use Japan as staging ground again just in case the South gets comprised I don't think that will be too much of a problem as US still has quite a few military bases in Japan in case of this.

 

The with Korea is  both Capitals are so close to the boarder with each other both sides will scramble like crazy to capture them. I think mobilization will be a key factor in how a potential conflict will unfold.

 

I wonder if the US is preparing their Pacific Fleet in case the North escalates things further the problem is will China and Russia be happy having such a large US fleet near their waters?