Jump to content
Legosi (Tani Coyote)

The Ukraine Thread

Recommended Posts

You're sounding like a conspiracy theorist BW.

Anyways, I've been doing my research into the background of this conflict and the history behind crimea is so messy as a whole. All the same; the majority of its citizens are of Russian (considering Stalin forced the inidigenous population out of there) so it really isn't worth fighting for a region that has no real worth to anyone, outside of historical importance.

It all just points to this being less of a bid for power, and more of just a silly scramble for historical land. Similar to what the Serbians were doing in the Balkans back in the early 20th century. (I hope it doesn't culminate in a similar outcome.)

Though I wonder how this is going for the non-Russian descended Ukrainians and the Tatars in that region. Out of all citizens; they probably have it the worst right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm hopeful they'll sign some sort of open borders agreement with Ukraine to allow non-Russians to more easily leave. I doubt minorities in the area are going to be treated very well.

Mass deportation similar to what Russia did to the Germans and Poles after World War II is no longer okay by international standards, so we won't see forced expulsions... but I wouldn't be surprised if non-Russian Crimeans are subject to a lot of (social, if not legal) persecution. They will be seen as a fifth column.

I won't be surprised if we see some sort of humanitarian crisis where a lot of people flee to Ukraine and are forced to leave pretty much everything they have behind. Population transfers always look better on paper than in practice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Putin idolizes the Soviet Union, and considers its collapse to be the greatest disaster of the 20th century. Of course he would want to emulate it. Ultimately, perhaps the Crimea becoming part of Russia might be better in the long run, but for Russia, it might not be worth it. Its economy has taken a hit, the US and EU are making economic moves to punish Russia (and that's on top of Russia's economy already slowly going into the shitter), and Russia's neighbour states are spooked and likely want to distance themselves from it.

 

The politicians from the US and EU are hardly angels (ditto for the buffoons in my own country's parliament, for that matter), but holy shit, they are far preferable to Putin, whose Russia is basically barely more than a dictatorship - what political opposition Putin had has been crushed and scattered to the winds, the media in Russia is basically one big propaganda machine, he can effectively use puppets to get around the 'two consecutive terms' thing for the presidency, and the only thing he really needs to do is keep the people appeased. I wouldn't be surprised if his dream was to recreate the Soviet Union, except less communist.

 

By the way, Putin claims the temporary Ukrainian government is illegitimate, and actually listed the only three reasons that he would recognize a new government. "Revolution" was not among them. Which, ironically, was how the Soviet Union he so idolizes was formed, which, by his logic, would mean the entire Soviet Union was an illegitimate government.

 

 

As for the Ukraine itself, the current government is only temporary - the people have a chance to make their voices heard in the election in May.

 

 

Edit: Oh, and by the way, might as well throw this out now - the accusation that the snipers were orchestrated by the Maidan leaders is entirely unfounded, according to the doctor who talked to the Estonian foreign minister, who said that what the foreign minister claimed wasn't actually what she said, she had no access to police bodies, only the bodies of the protestors.

 

So, yeah, BW, I was right to not treat the accusations seriously without proper evidence. Please don't insult my intelligence again, lest I decide to question yours.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You're sounding like a conspiracy theorist BW.

 

No I am not. I am just don't trust our governments with anything. Left, right their all shit lying hypocrites.

 

Sorry but this time it all black and white as media is making out to be.

 

 

So, yeah, BW, I was right to not treat the accusations seriously without proper evidence. Please don't insult my intelligence again, lest I decide to question yours.

 

Telegraph, great source. Its on tape what more proof do they need they said that it was likely that Snipers were madian based. Why is nobody investigating to see otherwise.

 

Don't need to insult your intelligence. You're capable of doing that yourself.

 

All of this is media war just like Iraq. With FOX CNN and the Daily Mail beating the war drum how about we just fucking kill ourselves over it already.

 

Good riddance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, yeah, BW, I was right to not treat the accusations seriously without proper evidence. Please don't insult my intelligence again, lest I decide to question yours.

 

 

Don't need to insult your intelligence. You're capable of doing that yourself.

 

All of this is media war just like Iraq. With FOX CNN and the Daily Mail beating the war drum how about we just fucking kill ourselves over it already.

 

Good riddance.

 

For fuck's sake, both of you knock off the petty insults and theatrics. Regardless of the issue at hand, you're to conduct yourselves with a semblance of tact when having a discussion with one another.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Putin is ultimately a demagogue. The best way to appeal to your people is to show strength towards foreign powers. Take the American example: George W. Bush was insanely popular for the short time between September 11th and Iraq. For a simple reason: he was assertive and told the world he'd do whatever was necessary to protect America and its people. And for the most part, the United States believed it. It's a recurring theme that strong leaders enjoy a lot of popularity when foreign policy is involved, at least at home.

The difference is Putin hasn't fallen from grace like Bush did amid several scandals and a poorly-informed war. Whether by luck or tact, he has avoided generating war weariness in his campaigns; his strong hand with the media has probably helped this. He also appeals enormously to Russia's national pride, which has naturally been wounded ever since the fall of the Union two decades ago. He's taken credit for the country's economic improvements since the fall of Yeltsin, and has similarly become far more aggressive than Gorbachev and Yeltsin, who enjoy a perception as puppets of the West.

Overall, even if he's done some good for Russia (asserting your nation should be treated like an equal is always a good thing), I think he could very well damage Russia in the long run. When we see how in bed he is with all these various oligarchs, it's obvious that his concern for the Russian people's well-being only exists as far as it serves his own ends. Cynicism would say Western politicians are similar, but the difference is those politicians are actually subject to a democratic process which ensures their good behavior; Putin can, short of massive, widespread discontent, easily get past any electoral headaches that pop up. After all, what people don't hear about can't hurt him.

Overall, he'll do whatever's necessary to score himself some popularity points, regardless of how much short and long-term damage results. Russia has a lot of economic clout, and he probably could have been working to bring Russia into the European Union on good terms. Instead, he embraced nationalism and militarism.

You'd think Russia, having suffered the most of the world wars, would have joined Western Europe in its rejection of the idea.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Putin idolizes the Soviet Union, and considers its collapse to be the greatest disaster of the 20th century. Of course he would want to emulate it.

 

"Anyone who doesn't regret the passing of the Soviet Union has no heart. Anyone who wants it restored has no brains."

- Vladimir Putin

I think that he might want to do the whole Russian Empire/Soviet Union thing right, but only in such a way as to not result in total collapse by US-lead economic asphyxiation. He's a smart man though, so I doubt we'll see Russian tanks rolling through Warsaw and Budapest any time soon. Small territorial bites, here and there, combined with pro-Russian media propaganda and political agents working to uplift friends of Moscow in the parliaments of eastern Europe... maybe. The long game.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I predict escalating tensions and a humiliating defeat for Kiev in the referendum, followed by Putin's Sauron-esque eye turning toward eastern Ukraine as a whole.

 

 

*high-five*

This is exactly the outcome that my whole family is hoping for. We would have such a huge celebration if it happens! biggrin.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

*high-five*

This is exactly the outcome that my whole family is hoping for. We would have such a huge celebration if it happens! biggrin.png

 

Might I ask why you'd celebrate this? What's the appeal of becoming part of Russia? Are you and your family of Russian descent, living in eastern Ukraine?

 

A local perspective would certainly be interesting to hear.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm for Crimea joining Russia because it's pretty much a Russian territory that just so happens to be under Kiev's stewardship.

As for the rest of Ukraine, I'm not so sure. The areas that are Russian majority, maybe... but those are much fewer and farther between outside Crimea if we're going by the sub-national level, where any referendum is likely to be organized.

Ukraine deserves its sovereignty the same as any other nation-state. If the Russians outside Crimea in Ukraine dislike the fact the territory is Ukrainian, then I'm afraid they're just going to have to move back to Russia. Any fair referendum is going to vote clearly in favor of remaining part of Ukraine, and I feel democracy trumps nationalism and irredentism any day of the week.

UkraineNativeLanguagesCensus2001detailed

While not a perfect map of ethnicity in Ukraine, this is a map of mother tongues in Ukraine. Red is Russian, blue is Ukrainian. The red regions are all Russia would theoretically have a claim to. However, the fairly large Ukrainian groups in those same areas lead me to believe only Crimea should become part of Russia.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So it seems that my predictions a while back about Putin being ready for Cold War part 2 weren't that far off, I mean it wouldn't be the first time regrettable political history repeated itself, someone in the white house a while back seems to have thought that the Iran/Contra affair sounded like a lot of fun.  

 

128991865879234381.jpg

Right handed but left eye dominant, not a great mix for marksmanship.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It isn't surprising. Politicians will gladly sacrifice the future for gains in the present.

Putin came to a Russia that felt greatly demoralized from years of faulty economic reforms and similarly distrustful of the West for having backed such reforms. Rather than take the path of stabilizing the economy as well as rebuilding relations with the West, he decided to instead pursue a path (in his defense, probably easier) that made Russia separate from the West again. He tapped into the siege mentality fairly well, to say the least.

I'm just saddened overall that Putin decided to create a nationalist, authoritarian, aggressive Russia instead of the cooperative, democratic, peaceful Russia the likes of Gorbachev were aiming for. The day Russia fully integrates with the rest of the European community will be a beautiful one, but I don't think it's going to happen anytime soon after Putin's regime.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's it, I can't be silent anymore.

 

This is ultimately for the betterment of the region, really. Democracy and peace seldom last long in ethnically-divided states. They either fragment into states with more homogenous populations, or go to war.

 

 

I'm hopeful they'll sign some sort of open borders agreement with Ukraine to allow non-Russians to more easily leave. I doubt minorities in the area are going to be treated very well.

 

Here's the problem: Currently, Crimea is far from a homogenous place, so giving the region to Russia will NOT bring peace. Many Russians constantly make a big deal about them being a majority there, yet 58% is only a very slight majority. In fact, the percentage of Russians has been steadily falling since 1979. The remaining 42%? They'll never agree to join Russia. The number of Ukrainians has remained on around 24.5% while the number of Crimean Tatars, the indigenous people of Crimea, has been sharply rising. In fact, the Crimean Tatars are pretty much the only ethnic group that is growing. Being finally allowed to return to their homeland after decades of exile,  they are heavily organized, even more than the Ukrainians, and aren't planning to give up at all.

 

http://qtmm.org/en/news/4198-statement-of-mejlis-of-the-crimean-tatar-people-as-regard-to-announcement-of-crimean-referendum-by-verkhovna-rada-of-autonomous-republic-of-crimea

 

 

 

[...]

 

The Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People states that along with the gross disregard to the rights and interests of multinational Crimean population, that is called to take part in the illegal referendum that has its result announced in advance, the rights of the Crimean Tatar people that has no other historical homeland outside Crimea, were especially violated.

The Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People calls all residents of the autonomy to boycott every stage of preparation to the referendum:

-          do not enter the district and territorial election committees;

-          do not take part in making a list of voters, do not agree to enter the list of voters;

-          demand one’s exclusion from such lists in case of inclusion into the lists of voters;

-          do not come to the polling stations on voting day, do not invite the members of the election committees to vote at home.

At the same time the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People calls the Crimean residents belonging to various nationalities to stay calm and avoid any attempts to provocations.

Peace and consent in our multinational Crimean society is our most efficient influence to those who brought chaos and fear for the future of our children, relatives and friends to our home.

Peaceful future of Crimea is in our hands!

 

Chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People         Refat Chubarov

 

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2014/03/who-will-protect-the-crimean-tatars.html

 

[...]

 

“We are already seeing signs that they are trying to intimidate us, to split us, to stir trouble,” Baiibov said. “Ukrainians are also vulnerable, but at least they have Ukraine to go to. Where will we go? Crimea is our only home.” After the regional parliament voted to merge Crimea into Russia on Thursday, the chairman of the Mejlis, Refat Chubarov, released a statement to the press, calling for the United Nations to “immediately consider” sending a contingent of international peacekeepers into Crimea, “in order to de-escalate the military conflict … which can lead to mass casualties among the entire civilian population of the peninsula.”

But the prospect of U.N. peacekeepers landing on the peninsula anytime soon is less than slim. And so, as Crimea prepares for a referendum on its future, its native people are preparing for the worst. In Bakhchysarai, Ava’s husband has cut up metal rods and placed them throughout the house so the family can use them to fight off any possible intruders. The men of Chiisty Istochniki Street now take turns patrolling the neighborhood at night, and Rustem Kadyrov has applied for travel documents for his children.

“Many of us want to get wives and children out of here, to somewhere safe,” Kadyrov told me. The men, he said, will stay.

 

Another thing, as someone who lives in the souther parts of a country with a significant Hungarian minority, I deeply resent the notion that multinational democracies are doomed to fail. In Slovakia the Slovaks and Hungarians have began to reject the ultranationalists. The far-right Slovak SNS party and the nationalist Hungarian SMK, after years of poisoning the political scene, crashed and burned in the last election and the inter-ethnic party Most-Híd (literally meaning "Bridge-Bridge", the former being in Slovak and the latter in Hungarian) gained seats in the Parliament in their place. Any remaining conflicts in the multinational souther Slovakia are caused by provocaters who, ironically, either arrive from homogenous Hungary or from the homogenous northern parts of Slovakia.

 

Nor are the Russians in eastern Ukraine all for Putin. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if many of the pro-Putin protesters there were bused form Russia.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Finally some more acknowledgement by mainstream media that these fascist bastards exist. 

 

The Ukrainian Jewish community has also noticed their existence, in an open letter:

 

http://maidantranslations.com/2014/03/05/open-letter-of-ukrainian-jews-to-russian-federation-president-vladimir-putin/

 

To the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin

 

Mr. President!

 

We are Jewish citizens of Ukraine: businessmen, managers, public figures, scientists and scholars, artists and musicians. We are addressing you on behalf of the multi-national people of Ukraine, Ukraine’s national minorities, and on behalf of the Jewish community.

 

You have stated that Russia wants to protect the rights of the Russian-speaking citizens of the Crimea and all of Ukraine and that these rights have been trampled by the current Ukrainian government. Historically, Ukrainian Jews are also mostly Russian-speaking. Thus, our opinion on what is happening carries no less weight than the opinion of those who advise and inform you.

 

We are convinced that you are not easily fooled. This means that you must be consciously picking and choosing lies and slander from the entire body of information on Ukraine. And you know very well that Victor Yanukovich’s statement used to describe the situation after the latest treaty had been signed – “…Kyiv is full of armed people who have begun to ransack buildings, places of worship, and churches. Innocent people are suffering. People are being robbed and killed in the streets…” – is simply a lie, from the first word to the very last.

 

The Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine are not being humiliated or discriminated against, their civil rights have not been infringed upon. Meanderings about “forced Ukrainization” and “bans on the Russian language” that have been so common in Russian media are on the heads of those who invented them. Your certainty about the growth of anti-Semitism in Ukraine, which you expressed at your press-conference, also does not correspond to the actual facts. Perhaps you got Ukraine confused with Russia, where Jewish organizations have noticed growth in anti-Semitic tendencies last year.

 

Right now, after Ukraine has survived a difficult political crisis, many of us have wound up on different sides of the barricades. The Jews of Ukraine, as all ethnic groups, are not absolutely unified in their opinion towards what is happening in the country. But we live in a democratic country and can afford a difference of opinion.

 

They have tried to scare us (and are continuing their attempts) with “Bandera followers” and “Fascists” attempting to wrest away the helm of Ukrainian society, with imminent Jewish pogroms. Yes, we are well aware that the political opposition and the forces of social protests who have secured changes for the better are made up of different groups. They include nationalistic groups, but even the most marginal do not dare show anti-Semitism or other xenophobic behavior. And we certainly know that our very few nationalists are well-controlled by civil society and the new Ukrainian government – which is more than can be said for the Russian neo-Nazis, who are encouraged by your security services.

 

We have a great mutual understanding with the new government, and a partnership is in the works. There are quite a few national minority representatives in the Cabinet of Ministers: the Minister of Internal Affairs is Armenian, the Vice Prime Minister is a Jew, two ministers are Russian. The newly-appointed governors of Ukraine’s region are also not exclusively Ukrainian.

 

Unfortunately, we must admit that in recent days stability in our country has been threatened. And this threat is coming from the Russian government, namely – from you personally. It is your policy of inciting separatism and crude pressure placed on Ukraine that threatens us and all Ukrainian people, including those who live in Crimea and the Ukrainian South-East. South-eastern Ukrainians will soon see that for themselves.

 

Vladimir Vladimirovich, we highly value your concern about the safety and rights of Ukrainian national minorities. But we do not wish to be “defended” by sundering Ukraine and annexing its territory. We decisively call for you not to intervene in internal Ukrainian affairs, to return the Russian armed forces to their normal fixed peacetime location, and to stop encouraging pro-Russian separatism.

 

Vladimir Vladimirovich, we are quite capable of protecting our rights in a constructive dialogue and in cooperation with the government and civil society of a sovereign, democratic, and united Ukraine. We strongly urge you not to destabilize the situation in our country and to stop your attempts of delegitimizing the new Ukrainian government.

 

[...]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Might I ask why you'd celebrate this? What's the appeal of becoming part of Russia? Are you and your family of Russian descent, living in eastern Ukraine?

A local perspective would certainly be interesting to hear.

 

Yes, I was born in eastern Ukraine and I lived there for 7 years. Despite being in Canada right now, I still have a grandmother, a bunch of cousins, a bunch of uncles, and even nephews who are living back there at this moment.

They are aware of the Neo-Nazi presence and they are afraid of it. This is why they would have preferred to have a referendum even if Yanukovich never fled and Putin never sent troops over.

This is exactly what they wanted for Yanukovich to do, to conduct a referendum. And they are extremely angry at him for fleeing like a coward to cause this mess and to make Putin look guilty of an offence when clearly there has been no offence at all.

Unlike me, my grandmother can't even speak a word of Ukrainian, so she doesn't want fascists to run her town.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a thought, if Crimea separates to Russia, doesn't that mean that most of it's electricity has to be cut off, since that all comes from northern Ukraine? 

 

They'll bring stuff in via ships and aircraft. If Ukraine blockades Russia will mostly likely declare war and or blockade their ports. Most likely the West will veto the idea as it will increase escalations.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/07/ukraine-crisis-gas-idUSL6N0M425S20140307

 

Russian gas companies are likely to turn the gas off in as Ukraine has missed their payments this could led to unrest if it is carried out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From what I hear, the US is in talks attempting to sell gas to Ukraine in place of Russia.

 

Well, nice to finally get a motivation. Ah well; if it undercuts Putin, I'm fine with it. Seriously, the man cuts you off on a dime if you argue pricing with him.

 

A part of doesn't want to say this but the situation seems all rather too convenient for the US. Selling them gas, giving them loans, sorry I mean aid. On the one hand it stops the country going broke but on the other austerity is not going to be a good thing for the Ukrainian people who will suffer for it. 

 

Just read that Kiev is alleging hiring the infamous Academi mercenaries to maintain order in Southern Ukraine. That's some more US debt.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A part of doesn't want to say this but the situation seems all rather too convenient for the US. Selling them gas, giving them loans, sorry I mean aid. On the one hand it stops the country going broke but on the other austerity is not going to be a good thing for the Ukrainian people who will suffer for it. 

 

 

It's a choice of evils mate. The US is taking advantage of a crisis to get their own footing in Ukraine, and keep Putin at bay. And overall, they're probably the lesser evil to the man who outright encourages the violation of human rights in his fellow countries.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's a choice of evils mate. The US is taking advantage of a crisis to get their own footing in Ukraine, and keep Putin at bay. And overall, they're probably the lesser evil to the man who outright encourages the violation of human rights in his fellow countries.

 

Oh anti-gay criticism is quite ironic. Is this why you are so hostile to Russia? There are parts in the US that are really bad place to be a homosexual. Also what about the elephant in room the Middle East? Our buddy's the Saudi's and United Arab Emirates they are far worse than Russia when comes to Human Rights abuses but they have oil we need that isn't Russian so we appease them and suck their dicks (metaphorically) while their rich drive around in gold plated Supercars while their people are oppressed, male, female, gay, straight or otherwise.

 

What about all the countries we support who abuse human rights? Putin is a bastard but so are we.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh anti-gay criticism is quite ironic. Is this why you are so hostile to Russia? There are parts in the US that are really bad place to be a homosexual. Also what about the elephant in room the Middle East? Our buddy's the Saudi's and United Arab Emirates they are far worse than Russia when comes to Human Rights abuses but they have oil we need that isn't Russian so we appease them and suck their dicks (metaphorically) while their rich drive around in gold plated Supercars while their people are oppressed, male, female, gay, straight or otherwise.

 

What about all the countries we support who abuse human rights? Putin is a bastard but so are we.

 

Don't say we as if you were from the US. 

 

Anyways, while homophobia is a problem in the US, we are making significant progress in advancing their rights. Already 17 states have legalized gay marriage, and more laws are being put in place trying to oust discrimination in workplaces. Putin on the offhand has made no such progress and supports having his people beat and murdeer gays all around. Yeah, there are bad eggs in the US, but those bad eggs can actually lose elections. 

 

As for the stuff in Saudi Arabia, considering what happened in the 70s, we were in the same place as Ukraine. Yes we bent hand and knee to them, but I can tell you we probably wouldn't have if they didn't have something our economy needed. You can see these strides in how much natural gas is expanding in the US. 

 

As for the rich... they exist in every country.

 

Anyways, I never said we were a saint. We're jerks, but Putin is the bigger jerk in this case. He gets the special criticism from the US because he isn't on our side, and I'm glad. There are allies we have that are frankly appalling with their human rights as well, but it's easier to deal with the guy your government is against too. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't say we as if you were from the US. 

 

I wasn't, but I have relatives in the US and I have stayed in the States many times. The UN recently admited that Britain's Bedroom Tax was a breach of Human Rights, which I actually agree with the UN on this but fuck all will be done about it because we sit at the big boys table.

 

Russian Government, United States government, hell any government are equally shit and hypocritical anyway no matter who we put in charge.

 

Anyway I think we getting side tracked here so I'll drop it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

You must read and accept our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy to continue using this website. We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.