The Ukraine Thread

[Tani Coyote]

Also if another Cold War happened I don't think the rest of world could and shouldn't tolerate being Russia and America's Bitch again and die for their petty ideologies.

Where's being the "bitch" here, though?

Europe doesn't like Russia's shows of force, and neither does America. There's plenty of room for cooperation on the subject. Which is what Obama is generally a champion of, hence why so many right-wing Americans see him as "weak."

America actually treats its European allies with respect (I must have missed where we invaded de Gaulle's France after he openly rebelled against America's objectives). The Soviets treated their allies like dogs to be beaten the moment they so much as barked.

If we really wanted to rein in Russia, we could do it. Europe and America together account for half the world's economic production. It'd be difficult, but very possible to quarantine Russia until they decide to be more amicable in their moves. The only issue is if anyone would be willing to take the short-term sacrifices.

The sooner Putin is replaced with someone more like Gorbachev, the better. And hopefully said Gorbachev-like individual won't get followed by a Yeltsin who screws everything up.

[Tani Coyote]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/11/world/europe/ukraine.html?_r=0

The slow, steady entrenchment of Russian forces continues with Russia bloodlessly seizing ever more bases. They apparently tell the surrendering Ukrainian forces they are there to "protect" the bases.

There are also reports of journalists having their photos and notes seized on the basis of being "translated," usually by pro-Russian groups.

North Korea just had its election and pretty much everyone voted yes; it's obvious why, tampering of numbers aside. I think there's going to be a lot of intimidation in the Crimea to vote yes on secession. It's the post-bellum US South all over again with voter intimidation.

Indeed. A lot of anti-secession advocates seem to be "disappearing." Read: they are very possibly being murdered.

[VO.SUPER]

This is terrible... 

 

That's all I can utter. I just hope things can be worked out in some way or another; that Putin is aiming to show himself as a complete warmonger. 

[VO.SUPER]

Sorry to double post; but I have some news. A bunch of soldiers stormed into a hotel in Crimea housing a bunch of journalists, and there are conflicting reasons why they are there.

http://time.com/26320/gunmen-storm-crimea-hotel-full-of-reporters-on-eve-of-referendum/

Yeah; this isn't sketchy.

[DLR_Nexus]

Actually, Crimeia is having some referendum and it's possible they can leave Ukraine to Russia.

[Patticus]

People being disappeared, journalists being harassed and attacked, bases being seized before any referendum has happened, the likelihood of voter intimidation in that referendum being very high... Yeah, I don't like this one bit.

 

Fair enough if voters decide to join Russia with no coercion in a free and fair referendum, gotta love that self-determination (which ironically would probably be squashed outright upon gaining membership of the Federation), but this will be anything but a free and fair election and, as with all things that involve putting 'Russia' and 'politics' in the same sentence, we should probably expect the Mafia-like tactics already on display to continue and intensify. Oh sure, the west will complain and stomp about and talk sanctions, maybe even slap some on Putin's wrists to make it look like they're doing something, but the only thing that would make that damnable man sit up and listen is US-driven money, expertise, manpower and resources being poured into the country. It likely won't happen there though, probably a country like Poland will be the bulwark that western powers will try to set up to halt the spreading pernicious influence of Russia.

[Tani Coyote]

Indeed, I think it's safe to say Ukraine's been written off because of concerns there's a sizable fifth column in the country.

 

Poland on the other hand is a staunch ally and I can see that area definitely being more protected.

 

I'm just curious what will happen to the Baltics. They're NATO, but they have sizable Russian minorities that could complicate the issue.

 

If this referendum is fraudulent, as it probably will be, I don't think it will bode well for those opposed to Russian rule. I just hope they're well-supplied with foreign arms so they can give Putin a run for his money.

[Patticus]

The only thing protecting the Baltic states is their collective NATO membership, but I'm sure that Russia could probably engineer a situation not unlike that which we've been watching unfold in Ukraine and Crimea, wherein prime ministers are elected who sever ties with NATO in favor of stronger ties with Russia, against the wishes of the people. Protests and riots erupt, Russia sends in its military to intervene to "keep the peace," and a couple of months later after rigged referendums, absorbs several more states. It really doesn't help the Baltic states' prospects that Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave city and part of the Russian Fed., is right on their doorstep, lying between Lithuania and Poland. Any civil strife in Lithuania arising from a pro-Russian leader cutting ties with western Europe would provide Russia with the perfect excuse to march in - gotta protect dat Kaliningrad.

[VO.SUPER]

I wonder, if Ukraine became a NATO ally in this conflict, would the US be more willing to take stronger action to protect it's interests. This would be the best time for that to happen what with the new powers and all.

[Patticus]

I do wonder if this whole Crimea situation might lead to a knee-jerk application for Ukrainian NATO membership. If this isn't a wake-up call for the Ukrainian people to join up or take Putin's army in the rear, I don't know what is...

[Tani Coyote]

I wonder, if Ukraine became a NATO ally in this conflict, would the US be more willing to take stronger action to protect it's interests. This would be the best time for that to happen what with the new powers and all.

 

In all likelihood. For the most part America sticks by its allies, even when it could be advantageous in some way to ditch them. We could probably jettison Israel and Taiwan, for example, to increase our standing with the Arab countries and China, respectively, but we nonetheless remain committed to aligning with them. America has a policy of trying to be friends with pretty much anyone, though, even if those same people absolutely loathe each other.

 

At the end of the day, your word is pretty valuable. If we don't stand by our allies, why would they stand by us? Which they very well have - despite all the poo flinging that tends to erupt in NATO between the US and Europe, we have backed each other when under attack.

 

I think what Patticus stated is the most likely move on the Baltics - outright military invasion can't be done, but Putin can most certainly try to get them to leave NATO's protection.

[Stacy]

No talking about people in this thread. I can't believe some people are being so hawkish so very easy to say when you won't be firing the shots. If wars happens these people should put on the front lines and have their cake and eat it. Ukrainian people being used as cannon fodder for the East and West is not right.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AaLdP8Kd_8

 

I could tolerate a relationship with Ukraine a bit more if the intern government wasn't run by a suspect banker and its military controlled by far right politicians who want Russians and Jews dead. If we could remove the far right element of Ukraine it might ease tensions in the east. At the moment I am honestly not comfortable with Western governments being so quick to deal with an unstable government we should at least wait until the May elections when the Ukrainians decide their future. That is if they are not rigged by the East and West and there isn't a war that is.

 

I really feel bad for average Ukrainian sandwiched between East and West. Ugly business. 

[188Eternal]

Well, this is it! My grandma is partying with all of her friends and neighbors in Simferopol.
My whole family is celebrating the victory of Crimea over the greed of the illegitimate thugs and the scheming blackmailing west.
My parents will finally be able to relax and sleep at night after two weeks of stress.

And we're laughing at Kerry and McCain for being such morons.... Did they seriously think that the Russian Empire would be afraid of their "economic sanctions"? Were they really stupid enough to think so?
We've already survived economic blockades in the 1950ies and 1960ies where we built our own technology without relying on foreign products and made history by sending the first man into space!
Foolish American senators can cry us a river. They don't know who they're messing with.

[VO.SUPER]

Well, this is it! My grandma is partying with all of her friends and neighbors in Simferopol.

My whole family is celebrating the victory of Crimea over the greed of the illegitimate thugs and the scheming blackmailing west.

My parents will finally be able to relax and sleep at night after two weeks of stress.

And we're laughing at Kerry and McCain for being such morons.... Did they seriously think that the Russian Empire would be afraid of their "economic sanctions"? Were they really stupid enough to think so?

We've already survived economic blockades in the 1950ies and 1960ies where we built our own technology without relying on foreign products and made history by sending the first man into space!

Foolish American senators can cry us a river. They don't know who they're messing with.

 

 

You rely on Russian gas, and it has been used to stranglehold your country multiple times. Unless you don't consider Ukraine and Russia two separate countries. 

[Stacy]

Well, this is it! My grandma is partying with all of her friends and neighbors in Simferopol.

My whole family is celebrating the victory of Crimea over the greed of the illegitimate thugs and the scheming blackmailing west.

My parents will finally be able to relax and sleep at night after two weeks of stress.

And we're laughing at Kerry and McCain for being such morons.... Did they seriously think that the Russian Empire would be afraid of their "economic sanctions"? Were they really stupid enough to think so?

We've already survived economic blockades in the 1950ies and 1960ies where we built our own technology without relying on foreign products and made history by sending the first man into space!

Foolish American senators can cry us a river. They don't know who they're messing with.

 

Yeah McCain is a fucking warmongering idiot. For a guy that fought in one of America's Worst Wars and was a POW in it sadly it seems that he has learned little from it then again he became a politician. Glad America saw some sense not to give him the presidency not that Obama is perfect but I'll have Obama over McCain.

 

McCain wants to arm Right Wing Fascists to fight Russia. I wish I was making that up.

 

[Nepenthe]

Well, this is it! My grandma is partying with all of her friends and neighbors in Simferopol.

My whole family is celebrating the victory of Crimea over the greed of the illegitimate thugs and the scheming blackmailing west.

My parents will finally be able to relax and sleep at night after two weeks of stress.

And we're laughing at Kerry and McCain for being such morons.... Did they seriously think that the Russian Empire would be afraid of their "economic sanctions"? Were they really stupid enough to think so?

We've already survived economic blockades in the 1950ies and 1960ies where we built our own technology without relying on foreign products and made history by sending the first man into space!

Foolish American senators can cry us a river. They don't know who they're messing with.

 

It's amazingly immature to make fun of someone from behind big brother's legs. But enjoy your assimilation I guess?

[Stacy]

It's amazingly immature to make fun of someone from behind big brother's legs. But enjoy your assimilation I guess?

 

If that is what some people truly want if that is to be believed? Sucks for the minorities of the Crimea. But what about the minorities of the Ukraine? The whole situation is a cluster fuck everybody is a pawn in the games of madmen.

[Nepenthe]

I've primarily been of the mindset that the Crimean population should've been the ones to decide their standing. If they voted to go back to Russia for some reason (assuming the vote was as genuine as possible), then I'm not going to complain beyond a shrug. Have fun in Russia I guess. This situation is indeed a clusterfuck due to the minority population's point of view on the issue, but again, it's one that America should've done nothing about in the first place, mainly because being the world police sucks for a multitude of reasons, and also it's one that Russia itself was wrong to forcefully intervene on in the first place regardless.

[Stacy]

I've primarily been of the mindset that the Crimean population should've been the ones to decide their standing. If they voted to go back to Russia for some reason (assuming the vote was as genuine as possible), then I'm not going to complain beyond a shrug. Have fun in Russia I guess. This situation is indeed a clusterfuck due to the minority population's point of view on the issue, but again, it's one that America should've done nothing about in the first place, mainly because being the world police sucks for a multitude of reasons, and also it's one that Russia itself was wrong to forcefully intervene on in the first place regardless.

 

I agree with you quiet a bit there.

 

To me the whole thing stinks of geopolitical bollocks. Interfering in countries civil matters is bad enough but with the East and West slowly arm wrestling over it is horrible if the situation deteriorate any further we might see another Cold War there was sign's of it over Syria.

 

Maybe its inevitable?   

 

 

Old school colonialism is dead but economic and idealogical expansion isn't. Just replace China with Ukraine thrown in with some modern leaders like Putin, Obama and some EU countries leaders like Cameron, Hollade and Merkel. Someone should do a modern version of this. 

[Tani Coyote]

My whole family is celebrating the victory of Crimea over the greed of the illegitimate thugs and the scheming blackmailing west.

Finding a military incursion undesirable is being "scheming" and "blackmailing." We may not be innocent of our own sins, but protecting a nation's sovereignty is certainly a noble goal.

Are all the Russian Ukrainians who don't want this just an elaborate myth made up by the United States?

 

Did they seriously think that the Russian Empire would be afraid of their "economic sanctions"? Were they really stupid enough to think so?

We've already survived economic blockades in the 1950ies and 1960ies where we built our own technology without relying on foreign products and made history by sending the first man into space!

Oddly enough, countries that are in the poor house already tend not to be affected by sanctions as much.

The Soviet Union indeed did all those things you mention.

...the Soviet Union no longer exists. Though your use of the word "Empire" makes me ponder exactly what's going on in Russian politics.

 

Foolish American senators can cry us a river. They don't know who they're messing with.

I think they do. A government with serious inadequacy issues that pretty much everyone's too scared to stand up to.

People say it's none of America's business to get involved in European affairs, but I'd disagree. We may have a crap record with sticking to defense of sovereignty, but we should back another nation's independence wherever possible. Unlike Europe, we're not paralyzed in fear of Russia's gas supplies.

We can talk tough and be perfectly secure here on our side of the ocean. What will Russia do, go cry to Iran? That won't do a thing - we get most of our oil from Canada and Mexico. Gripe to China? China, I think, would happily throw Russia under the bus if push came to shove; Russia doesn't buy their goods en masse.

Europe is in a position where it's genuinely difficult for them to make moves. America is not. Like it or not, it is ultimately up to America to provide leadership in this situation. We are the most powerful nation on Earth for the time being, and with power comes responsibility.

[CrownSlayers Shadow]

Like it or not, it is ultimately up to America to provide leadership in this situation. We are the most powerful nation on Earth for the time being, and with power comes responsibility.

With the added problem of making other nations jealous of that power *coughchinacough* that leads to more conflict and shit-flinging, and the risk of all that power going to the government and population's head. Then again, that last part isn't specific to America...

[Tani Coyote]

Indeed. What's important is that the average person similarly expect such power to be wielded cautiously. Weapons aren't supposed to be brandished at a moment's notice, whether they are real or metaphorical.

I support talking tough to Russia because they have invaded a sovereign state. This "election" reeks of voter intimidation; are all the reports manufactured by the West? I'm sorry, it's looking more like Russia is the new North Korea than anything else at the moment, with how the assumption is America and the West MUST be up to no good.

When one says America is unique in some fashion, they run the risk of being called exceptionalist. But that ignores the fact that every country is indeed unique in its own ways. America has the power to impact the world probably in a larger fashion than anyone else, with its enormous economic, military, and cultural power.

We can change the world for the better. The real question is if we will.

 

This election is for show. No one had any doubts how this would go... especially when there are armed troops roaming the streets and dissidents are disappearing. Ukraine has declared the action to be illegal, and most likely will send troops into the Crimea rather than accept the results.

 

Those who are "sleeping soundly" at the electoral results better enjoy it while it lasts. I get the feeling it's going to get very noisy there soon. Given the ethnolinguistic tensions... I just hope there are no mass atrocities in the coming war.

 

I believe this election to be about as legitimate as elections in the postbellum South.

[Stacy]

When one says America is unique in some fashion, they run the risk of being called exceptionalist. But that ignores the fact that every country is indeed unique in its own ways. America has the power to impact the world probably in a larger fashion than anyone else, with its enormous economic, military, and cultural power.

We can change the world for the better. The real question is if we will.

 

Probably Not.

 

European Empires felt the same way 100 years ago look were it left them.

[CrownSlayers Shadow]

Probably Not.

 

European Empires felt the same way 100 years ago look were it left them.

To be fair, even from a cynical perspective, they kind of did change the world.

 

For example, WWII managed to expose to people how badly they were behaving, for what it's worth...(yes I know that's too much credit)

[Tani Coyote]

The difference being America's not an empire.

 

Europe's empires were built on the backs of millions of subject peoples, who eventually got tired of being sent to fight in their wars and broke off. All 300+ million residents of America's "empire" are Americans, more or less.

 

Europe's empires were built on extraction of foreign resources for use in their factories. America has no shortage of land or resources, and has enough built up wealth to consume its own products for quite some time.

 

These two qualities are ultimately the source of its power, and why it will outlast any European power. It will not always be a superpower, that's just a historical inevitability (America's superpower status is ultimately simply because other nations were too wartorn or undeveloped after the second World War), but it's always going to remain important barring the country splitting into pieces.

 

It is similarly why Russia has a great deal of potential to become a very, very big fish in the coming years, with plenty of people and resources. Which is all the more reason to contain the Ukraine issue while we can; once Siberia's climate stops being an obstacle, Russia's possibly going to become downright scary in the power it can bring to bear, as it's already starting to reform its army to be more on Western standards (that is, smaller, but well-trained and less prone to dying like flies when sent somewhere). Despite its various economic abilities, it ultimately is rather poor by Western standards, which leaves it highly vulnerable with the right pressure.

 

Putin's the bully in the playground. It's time for some administrative action. Preferably before said bully brings a weapon to school with him.