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EU referendum: The UK votes to leave the EU

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The fact that "both sides" say each other's positions aren't rooted in truth doesn't have anything to do with the objectivity of particular matters. Conspiracy theorists aren't credible just because they say everyone else is crazy. 

The fact is, only one position can be more beneficial for the UK than the other one. That's the long and short of it. There is no "both sides" bullshit to be had here. And considering how much the pound has dropped in value already and what that's going to mean for the UK in the interim, to say nothing of the long term effects of cutting themselves off- something the US has wrestled with already- it's not exactly looking good for the pro-Brexit people.

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Just now, Nepenthe said:

The fact is, only one position can be more beneficial for the UK than the other one. That's the long and short of it. There is no "both sides" bullshit to be had here. And considering how much the pound has dropped in value already and what that's going to mean for the UK in the interim, to say nothing of the long term effects of cutting themselves off- something the US has wrestled with already- it's not exactly looking good for the pro-Brexit people.

The UK is not cutting themselves off. Why are we pushing that narrative? They're still able to freely trade with the EU, the difference is, is that they're not going to shackle their economy with a bunch of others that's either stagnating or outright deteriorating. The pound dropping in value means absolutely nothing. That's just the result of the mass hysteria and panic that we're experiencing right now. Give it time, let everything cool down, and the pound WILL be back up. Brexit people have been saying this for awhile, this isn't fucking news.

Great Britain leaving the EU is a good thing, the whole "European Super State" concept has been tried numerous times dating all the way back to Ancient Greece, and each time it has failed spectacularly to the point of total collapse. The sooner everyone, and I mean everyone, backs out of it the better everyone will be.

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Erm...forgive my ignorance but something just occurred to me and I just wanted to inquire...dunno if it's already been covered but -

The people in France watching the European Football tournament that are UK citizens, watching there respective countries play...Did they get a chance to vote?

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5 minutes ago, shdowhunt60 said:

The UK is not cutting themselves off. Why are we pushing that narrative? They're still able to freely trade with the EU, the difference is, is that they're not going to shackle their economy with a bunch of others that's either stagnating or outright deteriorating. The pound dropping in value means absolutely nothing. That's just the result of the mass hysteria and panic that we're experiencing right now. Give it time, let everything cool down, and the pound WILL be back up. Brexit people have been saying this for awhile, this isn't fucking news.

Do you really think the rest of the EU is going to give the UK favorable trade deals once this goes through, right after the country flipped them all off and Cameron resigned? (I wouldn't; I'd squeeze the life out of the UK) Do you really think businesses aren't going to be shackled with having to go through secondary certifications and requirements because the UK is no longer part of the same union, and either suffer downturns or just pull out of the UK altogether? The government has already posted that the UK's economy is going to shrink between 3 to 7 percent in about 14 years as a direct result of this. That's not really the sign of a blooming and blossoming economy.

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10 minutes ago, DanimeJ86 said:

Erm...forgive my ignorance but something just occurred to me and I just wanted to inquire...dunno if it's already been covered but -

The people in France watching the European Football tournament that are UK citizens, watching there respective countries play...Did they get a chance to vote?

Yes, they had the opportunity to apply to vote by postal vote.

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Just now, Nepenthe said:

Do you really think the rest of the EU is going to give the UK favorable trade deals once this goes through, right after the country flipped them all off and Cameron resigned?

You know, this just makes the EU look like an even more corrupt and vain supernation. Yeah, the UK should totally stay with an organization like that. They're totally looking out for the UK's interests.

Just now, Nepenthe said:

(I wouldn't; I'd squeeze the life out of the UK)

So you'd be a spiteful and angry child, because someone doesn't want to play by your rules. Gotcha.

Just now, Nepenthe said:

Do you really think businesses aren't going to be shackled with having to go through secondary certifications and requirements because the UK is no longer part of the same union, and either suffer downturns or just pull out of the UK altogether?

You mean that businesses might have to hire more people that are native in their own respective countries? The horror!

Just now, Nepenthe said:

Which is an over-exaggerated claim at the least. I mean, fucks sake are you going to take Cameron's word for this? 

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19 minutes ago, shdowhunt60 said:

You know, this just makes the EU look like an even more corrupt and vain supernation. Yeah, the UK should totally stay with an organization like that. They're totally looking out for the UK's interests.

So you'd be a spiteful and angry child, because someone doesn't want to play by your rules. Gotcha.

If someone was living with me and a bunch of other room mates who worked together to make the house work, and that special someone got mad and evicted themselves because they didn't get their way all the time, I wouldn't let them come in and eat from the fridge freely like they're used to after they left. They wanted independence, well, they get independence. You don't get to have your cake and eat it. So whatever is going to happen (I personally don't think the UK will cease to exist, but they're not going to be at the same strength they used to be), the UK should be expected to suffer any and all consequences that come from not being apart of that specific union. That's how adults act. You don't get to spite the adults around you and then think you're still friends.

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You mean that businesses might have to hire more people that are native in their own respective countries? The horror!

No.... I mean, because the UK isn't suspect to the same business and trade regulations of the EU due to not being apart of them, businesses are going to have to adapt to new product standards and tariffs, even if they're still allowed to trade, which is how it was before the EU was formed. For someone who probably doesn't think xenophobia/racism have anything to do with this, you certainly went to the "fuck immigrants" part of this shitshow really quickly.

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Which is an over-exaggerated claim at the least. I mean, fucks sake are you going to take Cameron's word for this? 

"Most economic models found Brexit would make little difference to UK economy, according to Cass Business School.

"Economics professor says Cameron and Osborne have used 'highly prejudiced' Treasury reports to 'ramp up the scaremongering' over Brexit"

"But Remain says Cass report is 'riddled with false claims' and includes 'no new analysis'"  
 

The taglines discredit the article before you can even start reading. At least pick a source in your favor that isn't a fucking conservative tabloid. 

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3 minutes ago, Nepenthe said:

If someone was living with me and a bunch of other room mates who worked together to make the house work, and that special someone got mad and evicted themselves because they didn't get their way all the time, I wouldn't let them come in and eat from the fridge freely like they're used to after they left. They wanted independence, well, they get independence. You don't get to have your cake and eat it. So whatever is going to happen, the UK should be expected to suffer the consequences that come from not being apart of that specific union. That's how adults act.

But that's not what you said, you implied that you would be outright punishing them from leaving club EU. What benefits, exactly, did the UK get staying with the most recent European Super State?

3 minutes ago, Nepenthe said:

No.... I mean, because the UK isn't suspect to the same business and trade regulations of the EU due to not being apart of them, businesses are going to have to adapt to new product standards and tariffs, even if they're still allowed to trade, which is how it was before the EU was formed.

Businesses will adapt and overcome. They already are doing so.

3 minutes ago, Nepenthe said:

For someone who probably doesn't think xenophobia/racism have anything to do with this, you certainly went to the "fuck immigrants" part of this shitshow really quickly.

Oh, please start psycho-analyzing me Penthe. I'm dying for you to do so. What darkness lies deep in my heart? Please, just tell me how internalized my racism is.

3 minutes ago, Nepenthe said:

"Most economic models found Brexit would make little difference to UK economy, according to Cass Business School.

"Economics professor says Cameron and Osborne have used 'highly prejudiced' Treasury reports to 'ramp up the scaremongering' over Brexit"

"But Remain says Cass report is 'riddled with false claims' and includes 'no new analysis'"  
 

The taglines discredit the article before you can even start reading. At least pick a source in your favor that isn't a fucking conservative tabloid. 

Oh, I see. Would it be okay if it was a liberal one then?

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2 minutes ago, shdowhunt60 said:

But that's not what you said, you implied that you would be outright punishing them from leaving club EU. What benefits, exactly, did the UK get staying with the most recent European Super State?

Immediate access to a single $16 trillion market, easier trade with other international markets, easier and increased flow of investment and labor-- basically all of the nice shit that the states within the United States get access to within the country's borders, unless you think states seceding is also a good idea?

2 minutes ago, shdowhunt60 said:

Of course businesses will adapt? But that doesn't mean the market will be as favorable and easy as it was before.

2 minutes ago, shdowhunt60 said:

Oh, please start psycho-analyzing me Penthe. I'm dying for you to do so. What darkness lies deep in my heart? Please, just tell me how internalized my racism is.

Clearly a bias against immigrants for one since you brought it up right the fuck out of nowhere with no prompting on my end. Also, didn't I and Sean tell you to stop being passive-aggressive? Yeah, we told you to stop being a passive-aggressive.

2 minutes ago, shdowhunt60 said:

Ignoring the fact that it doesn't actually conclude a thing about the overall economic impact this will have, how about a non-tabloid source that concerns itself with more hardline economic consensuses?

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1 hour ago, shdowhunt60 said:

The UK is not cutting themselves off. Why are we pushing that narrative? They're still able to freely trade with the EU, the difference is,

No we're bloody not. Let me put this in a way which people in the US might understand. 

 

How this works for people in the EU.

Say you live in Washington. And you make something. You want to sell that to someone living in another state.

They pay you and you send them the item. 

The end.

 

How it now works for the UK.

You have to pay a charge to the US Government just to access the person you want to sell to, so odds are you have to increase the price of your item to offset that cost.

Because you're no longer working with US regulations, you now have to make sure your item does abide by US regulations instead of pre-working to US regulations.

You then send the item to the other person.

The other person may gets hit by custom fees. 

 

Basically, for people in the US, you know how sometimes when you order online you see the words 'people living in X will be charged Y for tax reasons' Imagine that, but on a country scale. And that's just to access the person you want to sell to.

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1 hour ago, shdowhunt60 said:

The UK is not cutting themselves off. Why are we pushing that narrative? They're still able to freely trade with the EU, the difference is, is that they're not going to shackle their economy with a bunch of others that's either stagnating or outright deteriorating. 

The UK literally just cut itself off from the EU. They just said to the EU that they don't want to participate in the EU, that they fundamentally disagree with the core ideals of the EU project. The EU has no reason to trade with someone who just told it to go fuck itself when they have Germany, Italy, France, Spain, etc, etc. If that's not cutting yourself off, what is? Going to war?

We will still be able to trade with the EU, sure, but on their terms.Terms that will damage the UK economy as we are not part of the club. They are an economic superpower, and we are an island nation. If any company wants to trade in Europe, they will see a bloc of powerful economic forces with billions of people on one side, and the UK. The UK is not a economic superpower, but The EU is. 

And, lest we fucking forget, they just fucked up the Good Friday agreement, a political event that people thought was impossible and was facilitated by the EU.

I mean, why do you think this is a good thing? What's your case for Brexit? What's your bright idea for Ireland?

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Because I know someone is going to say it.

Well why don't you negotiate a trade deal with Europe? That way you can still trade and not pay a fee?

HO HO! HO HO!

Why yes, we can do that, however there is an issue with that. 

Because the EU is part of a collective which is governed by the European Union, we would likely negotiate trade deals with them, that means the UK, along with Switzerland and I think Norway who also are not members but live inside 'Europe' have to do the following.

  • Pay a fee to access the countries/people they wish to trade to, Switzerland's is something like 50 million per year and has risen every year since they agreed to trade.
  • Allow for the free movement of goods and people. Both ways, so UK stuff to Europe and Europe to the UK.

In other words...

DO THE TWO MAIN THINGS THE LEAVE CAMPAIGN SAID THEY WANTED RID OF!

"But... The United States & China doesn't have to do that...?"

Are they the current world Super Powers? If Yes go to next question.

Is Britain?

lol nope.

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I'm not really following the whole Brexit fiasco other than what bits and pieces are being posted on facebook, but someone pro leave posted a round up of the day:

" A Prime Minister resigned. The £ plummeted. The FTSE 100 lost significant ground. But then the £ rallied past February levels, and the FTSE closed on a weekly high: 2.4% up on last Friday, its best performance in 4 months. President Obama decided we wouldn't be at the 'back of the queue' after all and that our 'special relationship' was still strong. The French President confirmed the Le Touquet agreement would stay in place. The President of the European Commission stated Brexit negations would be 'orderly' and stressed the UK would continue to be a 'close partner' of the EU. A big bank denied reports it would shift 2,000 staff overseas. The CBI, vehemently anti-Brexit during the referendum campaign, stated British business was resilient and would adapt. Several countries outside the EU stated they wished to begin bi-lateral trade talks with the UK immediately. If this was the predicted apocalypse, well, it was a very British one. It was all over by teatime. Not a bad first day of freedom"

Truth?

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Hyp3hat said:

The EU has no reason to trade with someone who just told it to go fuck itself when they have Germany, Italy, France, Spain, etc, etc.

The UK alternates between the 5th and 6th largest world economy, and is located in very close physical proximity to the EU countries that have traditionally propped the EU up anyway. Whether or not the UK is hurt more than the EU is by the UK leaving, the fact of the matter is that the EU has plenty of reason to continue trading with the UK and they are both definitely weaker than they were before. Whether or not the UK has enough leverage to get status quo trade agreements or not, it's ridiculous to act like the EU is going to actively punish the UK like some just because they left.

 

Especially since Brexit actually going through, which was a surprise to me personally, has potentially enboldened the vocal Euroscepticism that the immigration crisis has brought to the forefront of a couple of other EU countries that are actually important. The EU has to tread carefully when it comes to negotiating with the UK for the future.

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2 minutes ago, Tornado said:

The UK alternates between the 5th and 6th largest world economy, and is located in very close physical proximity to the EU countries that have traditionally propped the EU up anyway. Whether or not the UK is hurt more than the EU is by the UK leaving, the fact of the matter is that the EU has plenty of reason to continue trading with the UK and they are both definitely weaker than they were before. Whether or not the UK has enough leverage to get status quo trade agreements or not, it's ridiculous to act like the EU is going to actively punish the UK just because they left.

 

Especially since Brexit actually going through, which was a surprise to me personally, has potentially enboldened the vocal Euroscepticism that the immigration crisis has brought to the forefront of a couple of other EU countries that are actually important.

They kinda have to impose unfavourable trade agreements on the UK so every other European Farage type doesn't force their country to do what we did. If everyone could leave the EU and get a good trade deal, there wouldn't be an EU in 20 years.

I'm just going to quote Hogfather here.

27 minutes ago, Detective Hogfather said:

Because the EU is part of a collective which is governed by the European Union, we would likely negotiate trade deals with them, that means the UK, along with Switzerland and I think Norway who also are not members but live inside 'Europe' have to do the following.

  • Pay a fee to access the countries/people they wish to trade to, Switzerland's is something like 50 million per year and has risen every year since they agreed to trade.
  • Allow for the free movement of goods and people. Both ways, so UK stuff to Europe and Europe to the UK.

In other words...

DO THE TWO MAIN THINGS THE LEAVE CAMPAIGN SAID THEY WANTED RID OF!

Any 'good' trade deal from outside the EU requires doing things that Brexit, and Eurosceptics across the continent, were explicitly against, so if we ask for no free movement, we're going to have to pay accordingly. 

It's just going to be a shitshow, tbh.

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32 minutes ago, Hyp3hat said:

They kinda have to impose unfavourable trade agreements on the UK so every other European Farage type doesn't force their country to do what we did.

So the EU plays hardball. Tells the UK to fuck off when they attempt to negotiate trade. You think that doesn't hurt the EU as well? The world's 5th or 6th largest economy pulls out of your trade alliance, and you decide to act like they are an unperson? Whether or not the UK made a poor decision in leaving the UK, and whether or not the EU has the upper hand in trade negotiations, the EU isn't so unaffected by the UK pulling out that they can just pretend they don't have to come to the table at all.

 

How does the EU actively punishing the UK, to the detriment of remaining EU members, look to the Netherlands, which may very well be next in line to leave? How does that look to France; of which the UK is one of its most valuable individual trading partners, is one of the remaining major individual EU economies, and has its own loud anti-EU sentiment they are trying to control? I don't think it's likely that the Netherlands or France will follow the UK, but I also don't think its a possibility the EU can just pretend isn't there since I also didn't think it was likely that the UK would follow through on it.

 

32 minutes ago, Hyp3hat said:

if we ask for no free movement, we're going to have to pay accordingly.

Says who? Again, the EU probably doesn't "need" the UK as much as the UK may "need" the EU, but neither is better off stonewalling each other entirely because both are weaker now that the UK has left. And the countries whose remaining presence is actually important to the EU, your Frances and Germanys and (to a lesser extent) Spains? The EU is ultimately a collective bargaining group, acting on behalf of the entirety of its members.

But let's be real here: the likes of Greece and Cyprus and whatever former Soviet satellite puppet country they decide to admit next can likely go fuck themselves in terms of voicing that they have no benefits gained from a UK trade deal if it means that the big countries that actually support the EU get what they need the most out of a trade agreement with the world's 5th/6th largest economy; and those individual important countries are also the ones that will be hurt the most by blocking all attempts at trade reconciliation with the world's 5th/6th largest economy since they are (generally) the closest physically and the most closely intertwined. The UK isn't the US or China in terms of bargaining power, but it also isn't as if the UK is going to turn into Ethiopia from this.

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11 minutes ago, Operationgamer17 said:

And it already has 400,000 signatures.

I've got a feeling a lot of them are Europeans and people who voted leave.

Unless Europeans can't sign these petitions, then ehhh...well yeah.

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42 minutes ago, Tornado said:

So the EU plays hardball. Tells the UK to fuck off when they attempt to negotiate trade. You think that doesn't hurt the EU as well? The world's 5th or 6th largest economy pulls out of your trade alliance, and you decide to act like they are an unperson? Whether or not the UK made a poor decision in leaving the UK, and whether or not the EU has the upper hand in trade negotiations, the EU isn't so unaffected by the UK pulling out that they can just pretend they don't have to come to the table at all.

How does the EU actively punishing the UK, to the detriment of remaining EU members, look to the Netherlands, which may very well be next in line to leave? How does that look to France; of which the UK is one of its most valuable individual trading partners, is one of the remaining major individual EU economies, and has its own loud anti-EU sentiment they are trying to control? I don't think it's likely that the Netherlands or France will follow the UK, but I also don't think its a possibility the EU can just pretend isn't there since I also didn't think it was likely that the UK would follow through on it.

The EU isn't going to cut off trade, but it has to make leaving look so unappealing to France and the Netherlands that they can use us as an example. We wanted to stop free movement, they'll impose it. We want to stop paying money to the EU, they'll make us pay it anyway. Otherwise they can cut us off from the market we do the most trade with. We are the 5th or 6th largest economy interchangeable with France, who are invested in the EU. A Brexited UK comes at this from a losing position. 

To rephrase - if the EU gave the UK the full benefits of being an EU member, minus free movement and fees, despite not being one, why would anyone be a member? 

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2 hours ago, Hyp3hat said:

The EU isn't going to cut off trade, but it has to make leaving look so unappealing to France and the Netherlands that they can use us as an example.

An example of what? Why you don't mess with the badasses who run... a voluntary trade union? You think actively and obviously punitive trade actions imposed by a trade union against a country that democratically elected to leave said trade union, whether it was a good decision for them to leave or not, is going to quell dissent within the countries that remain? What threat can the EU imply will take place that the French people can take seriously when a (certainly unlikely but who knows if possible) French leave vote would doom any actual power the EU has to make decisions, if not the EU completely? If the Netherlands puts leaving the EU to a referendum (like has already been floated since Brexit succeeded) for seemingly the same radical nationalistic and immigration-based reasoning the UK seems to have left over, you think the EU being overtly aggressive to the UK with the threat left unsaid is going to make those groups in that country back off?

 

Quote

Otherwise they can cut us off from the market we do the most trade with. 

Which hurts the EU just the same, and it specifically hurts the countries that do most of the heavy lifting to make the EU function because they are some of the closest trading partners with the UK. The EU can play hardball with the UK, but the EU is still a collection of individual countries with individual desires attempting to work together. The US = EU comparison is a good one insofar as how the laws regarding interstate trade and travel and taxation and the like are handled; but it is a bad one in regards to the amount of power the individual countries hold over influencing EU policy versus what individual states can over US policy. You need look no further than the crazy amount of special dispensation that the UK got as an EU member state for not following EU regulations as proof of that.

California is one of the few states that can survive wholly on its own and is absolutely vital as a part of the United States as a whole, but California isn't allowed to opt out of using the dollar. California isn't allowed to grant federal emissions waivers for cars built there. California isn't allowed to use a different measurement system on their roads. California isn't allowed to make up their own product labeling laws.

 

 

 

Hell, that's what makes the whole thing actually passing so bizarre, since the UK seemed to have more control over things that benefited them personally as an EU member than any other EU country got out of it.

 

Quote

We are the 5th or 6th largest economy interchangeable with France, who are invested in the EU.

And France will be one of the individual countries most hurt by the EU purposely trying to screw the UK over to make a point. And regardless of, again, whether or not the UK "needs" the EU more than the EU "needs" the UK, they still do need to work together if they want to minimize the amount of damage the Brexit causes to both of them.

 

Quote

To rephrase - if the EU gave the UK the full benefits of being an EU member, minus free movement and fees, despite not being one, why would anyone be a member? 

Because most of the EU countries don't have nearly the economic power that Britain has, will continue to have, and in fact leveraged repeatedly throughout their entire tenure as an EU member. The UK isn't the US. The UK isn't China. The UK also isn't Greece. The UK also isn't Serbia.

So long as Germany and France and Italy remain in the EU, many of the other countries will happily benefit from their hugely more powerful individual economies helping them out and fall in line with whatever is put forth by EU leadership. You think the countries that get far more out of the Union than they could get out of it are going to suddenly put on big boy pants and make demands because the UK wants a favorable trade agreement without the drawbacks that are causing a lot of dissent in the EU anyway? Particularly when the drawbacks don't seem to be as big flashpoints in those countries anyway?

 

 

Germany and France and Italy and Spain probably aren't going to use this as a rallying cry to get the kind of special deal that the UK is going to want, not the least of which being because the UK probably aren't going to get it even though they might have when they were EU members; but the EU as a whole can not afford to just crush the UK under their heel as punishment for leaving. What happens with Scotland and Northern Ireland will affect things greatly for the UK going forward, but let's not pretend that the EU hasn't just functionally lost something like 20% of its economic "value" and taken a huge international confidence hit at the same time that the UK's economy is taking a beating. Let's not pretend that the EU's popularity among its remaining influential member states is so beyond reproach that they can afford to slap the UK around a bit as an implicit warning.

The EU has to navigate this without treating the UK like a shitheel, even if they want to and even if their position is stronger than the UK's.

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4 hours ago, Detective Hogfather said:

Basically, for people in the US, you know how sometimes when you order online you see the words 'people living in X will be charged Y for tax reasons' Imagine that, but on a country scale. And that's just to access the person you want to sell to.

That's to say nothing of the fact the UK customs services are run by crooks, so anyone who imports stuff on a regular basis is going to be eaten alive by the fees.

I can just imagine the number of "can you mark this as a gift?" requests exploding across eBay in the aftermath...

For those of you thinking this "isn't a big deal"... the money paid in fees is money that a British citizen could spend on goods in Britain; without that spending money, the economy gets weaker. General rule of economics: if it makes goods cheaper, it's good, if it makes them more expensive, it's bad. Quality of life is the direct result of buying power.

3 hours ago, Ernest-Panda said:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

Petition to get a second referendum. And this isn't just some vain protest. According to referendum rules, there's an actual chance.

Godspeed for the British people.

3 hours ago, Mogtaki said:

I've got a feeling a lot of them are Europeans and people who voted leave.

Unless Europeans can't sign these petitions, then ehhh...well yeah.

Well, it requires you to say you're a British citizen but... I don't think they do anything but take one's word for it.

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