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The General American Politics Thread


turbojet

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Don't get too paranoid yet, folks. The pendulum's just swinging right now...

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And trump currently has the lead in Virginia and Georgia. The latter I'm expecting him to win but the former has me nervous.

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There's no point in fretting over 1-2% differentials this early in the night. You're better off looking at the major polls, larger counties, and how Hillary is faring in Trump territory compared to how Obama did his last election, which is apparently as competitive if not more so.

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Yeah, don't even bother with Georgia for Hillary. I seriously doubt she'll come close to winning that one.

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Clinton seems to be doing pretty well in areas Obama did well in. Even a few traditional republican areas seem to be pretty neck and neck.  I'm confident Clinton can lead in those states where Obama dominated in. Overall as a whole, country wise, it seems to be somewhat close at 51 trump vs 45 Clinton 

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Just now, Conquering Storm's Servant said:

Yeah, don't even bother with Georgia for Hillary. I seriously doubt she'll come close to winning that one.

Georgia is pink though. Would've be blood red with literally any other candidate. Kinda proud of my state and my people. Had it gone purple, I would've danced with random people in the street.

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Yeah, sorry, but I'm not getting my hopes up for it anymore than I would for my state.

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Just now, Conquering Storm's Servant said:

Yeah, sorry, but I'm not getting my hopes up for it anymore than I would for my state.

I'm not saying get your hopes up for it somehow magically turning blue. I'm saying there's a silver lining to its voting patterns as they've been polled and reported.

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I did it, I voted. In my state Florida. But...I kinda flipped a coin best two out of three. It's in God's hands now.

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2 minutes ago, Nepenthe said:

I'm not saying get your hopes up for it somehow magically turning blue. I'm saying there's a silver lining to its voting patterns as they've been polled and reported.

Well right now, I'm not seeing any sort of silver lining to it regardless. So I'm not going to be expecting much from it.

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15 minutes ago, Conquering Storm's Servant said:

Well right now, I'm not seeing any sort of silver lining to it regardless. So I'm not going to be expecting much from it.

The silver lining is shifting voter demographics. States, unless they're heavily mixed battlegrounds or the country is beset with a once-in-a-lifetime candidate like Reagan, don't flip overnight. However, when you start to see weakening demographics in party strongholds or an even mix of voters, that could bode well for future elections and midterms. It also helps predict the election in general; if a Republican is failing in what are traditionally red strongholds, it means good news for Democrats in neighboring counties and battlegrounds states. It doesn't need to be all or nothing to be worthy of note.

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A vote does not become instantly obsolete the day after the election. Democrat and Republican strategy coalitions look at where states are trending and may consider campaigning there the next election cycle.

This is why "a vote doesn't count" never really made sense to me. If a vote doesn't count in 2012 in a 60-40 split, and doesn't count again in 2016 in a 52-48 split, does it not count in 2020 in a 47-53 split?

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17 minutes ago, Nepenthe said:

The silver lining is shifting voter demographics. States, unless they're heavily mixed battlegrounds or the country is beset with a once-in-a-lifetime candidate like Reagan, don't flip overnight. However, when you start to see weakening demographics in party strongholds or an even mix of voters, that could bode well for future elections and midterms. It also helps predict the election in general; if a Republican is failing in what are traditionally red strongholds, it means good news for Democrats in neighboring counties and battlegrounds states. It doesn't need to be all or nothing to be worthy of note.

Well right now, I'm not concerned with future elections and midterms. Georgia is not looking well for Clinton, and I'm not expecting her to win it for this election given what the predictions are currently showing in that state. I am far more concerned with states where she and Trump are going neck and neck like Florida than one that shows she's massively behind. I will look into shifting voter demographics later down the line after this election, but shifting demographics aren't doing Hillary any favors in states that are heavily leaning red as we're currently seeing them.

14 minutes ago, -Robin- said:

A vote does not become instantly obsolete the day after the election. Democrat and Republican strategy coalitions look at where states are trending and may consider campaigning there the next election cycle.

This is why "a vote doesn't count" never really made sense to me. If a vote doesn't count in 2012 in a 60-40 split, and doesn't count again in 2016 in a 52-48 split, does it not count in 2020 in a 47-53 split? 

"A vote doesn't count" is news to me considering that's kinda how our system works (a bit). I've been hearing them say more that their votes "don't matter" so they don't bother voting out of apathy, so where'd the "doesn't count" part come from?

EDIT: Also, yikes, Hilary's really behind in Virginia...wasn't expecting that.

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Well she's leading in Ohio right now, but man Florida is really neck and neck right about now.

EDIT: It'll be a fucking miracle if she maintains her lead in Texas. But I'm not holding my breath.

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Texas is Blue again and now Clinton's got the lead at 49.3%!

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Texas, wtf? You were blue, then red, now you're back to blue. Starting to wonder about you, because I had no hopes for you whatsoever...

EDIT: I'mma just say this: in the end, Texas is more than likely gonna come out red. But I don't have anything to bet if I turn out wrong...and I secretly hope I end up eating those words after seeing this...

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