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The General American Politics Thread


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I will say that burning the American flag is probably not the best thing to show rural working-class Americans to get them to join your side. 

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16 minutes ago, Noelgilvie said:

I'd especially be wary of a Bernie/Warren ticket, because there's a realistic chance of both passing away in office and giving the Presidency to the Speaker of the House, who will quite likely end up being Republican.

Very true - it was more wishful thinking that anything practical anyway. A younger/older combo worked for Obama/Biden, and considering the caliber of some of the older Democrats today, it could really help to have just one in the ticket.
 

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My God.

Was Obama actually able to sit down with him and persuade him of its merits?

The way this is going, Obama's making one last good overture while in office.

The problem is, how will Trump respond to the inevitable uproar in the GOP establishment, who will block his own programs?

...unless Trump puts on his act again, and manages to vilify Ryan and McConnell for standing in the way of the Great Wall of America.

I don't know who to root for in this case. I can just hope they check each other.

That, or he knew and accpeted them already and is now slowly walking it all back so he can appear to have a genuinely bipartisan, outsider-only view. Remember, this man not so long ago held very liberal views on healthcare - is it possible that some of them are still present?

The Republicans will try to repeal it all anyway though - if Trump wants to go "Full Trump" on them for doing that, he's going to need to be careful about how hard he pushes, or he's going to begin confirming all the worst fears the party had about him. I figure he'll come out with a Trumpcare plan that mixes elements of the ACA, Paul Ryan's alternative, and some other stuff that pisses everyone off.
 

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Vote in 2018, maybe even 2017 if there's any off-year elections.

There's an important gubernatorial (seriously, this was the best word they could come up with for the election of a governor?) election next year, and the DNC leadership battle for the soul of the party, but beyond that I think 2018 is the next deluge of elections.

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Just now, Noelgilvie said:

I'm surprised this is taking anybody by surprise. Trump is a capitalist. The same class who enslaved an entire race of people for their personal enrichment in the South. The same class that sent jobs overseas and left countless people unemployed or with sour economic prospects in the Rust Belt. The same class that spearheaded marijuana prohibition and the War on Drugs for personal gain. The South and North should absolutely form a political coalition, as they did this election, but they made it for the wrong reasons.

Consider the fact very few wealthy people say "I have what I need, I'll give the rest to charity!" It speaks automatically to their values.

I don't consider capitalism a class, but he is rich and I suppose that could motivate him to try to uphold an establishment for his own gain. But he came off as so reckless during the campaign stage that he seemed more likely to try to push for bigger and bigger mistakes that screw people more than to try to uphold the establishment.

4 minutes ago, Noelgilvie said:

Really?

Vote in 2018, maybe even 2017 if there's any off-year elections. Remind people to vote as Election Day nears.

Make sure everyone has their voter IDs to comply with voter ID laws if necessary.

We don't need to necessarily become huge activists, but spreading the word via social media and with our close friends is a way to make a difference. If we all do it, we can have maximum reward with minimal effort.

I know this, and I've tried (and of course I'm using my right to vote, though my state has always gone Democrat so its simply a matter of keeping a democrat in office). I suppose I feel kind of disheartened. I live in a neighborhood that stands to benefit from Trump's policies of lower taxes for everybody and not having to pay for welfare, so you don't get a lot of people willing to listen. I certainly feel like my words are falling on deaf ears. My parents have been known to unfriend people on social media and stuff because they think the people they unfriended were too friendly towards Hilary Clinton, change the channel when the media seems too nice to democrats, and they give Trump more credit than he deserves for stuff like claiming not to be taking a salary while downplaying problematic things like him choosing a cabinet of pro-establishment businessmen with personal gains (a trend that will probably continue as his presidency does). Yet at the same time, the majority of my town did go Clinton (unusual for a Republican-dominated small town), so that gives some hope, but at the same time, they're so apathetic about politics and have no immediate motivation to not be that I doubt they'll say much more then "Well, I didn't vote for him, but we'll live." And yeah, they will probably come out of this no worse for wear and even in a better place, but its not just about them.

I guess I'm just having trouble reaching people, and don't know what will convince people who are unwilling to learn.

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20 minutes ago, Mad Convoy said:

I don't consider capitalism a class,

I can assure you, as a historian, it most absolutely is.

They all saber rattle with each other but the reality is they join forces to combat any attempts at the masses to assert themselves.

The Great Powers joined to try and crush the French Revolution, enjoying short-term success but eventually seeing the collapse of absolutism and aristocracy. The Great Powers likewise quickly kissed and made up after World War I to try and crush the Bolsheviks in Russia.

They may differ on the finer points, but Democrat, Republican, or otherwise, the rich man is not to be seen as your friend. An ally of convenience, certainly, but the fact he has so much wealth he does not need when so many others are suffering betrays his true character. He is either sheltered at best (a strong possibility given the various forms of privilege) or malicious at worst.

Just look at how much the GOP and Democrats loathe each other, but they quite enjoy sinking IRV and depressing unfavorable voter power. The Democrats are only favoring higher turnout right now because it is to their benefit.

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But he came off as so reckless during the campaign stage that he seemed more likely to try to push for bigger and bigger mistakes that screw people more than to try to uphold the establishment.

He's a good actor and knows how to work people. It's no surprise his business has stayed afloat when he's not quite as good at managing money.

I mean, for all we know he's actually fairly intelligent but played the part of moron so Clinton and everyone would underestimate him. This isn't unheard of; it's said the man who overthrew the Roman monarchy and established the Republic had pretended to be stupid for years so the King wouldn't have him killed as a possible threat.

This is really what's so damned scary about him. It's hard to know where the performance ends and the man begins.

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I guess I'm just having trouble reaching people, and don't know what will convince people who are unwilling to learn.

 

I really think that's the key. A lot of people just aren't worth your time when it comes to politics. The trick, I suppose, is to weed out those who are. Even if it's a small group, so long as you all make a point to turn out for every election, you stand a chance of flipping the results even as a minority group. What I've found often works is finding common ground first and then slowly segueing into discussion of a topic they could be changed on; the person has a positive bias towards you as a result of the initial agreement, and might be more willing to listen.

Consider, for example, the spectrum of racism in America. I don't think we can really hope to work with the people who dream of restoring Jim Crow (FDR did it because he found a way to reconcile the interests of racial minorities with white supremacy in the South that wouldn't work in the present day), but we could absolutely work with the Trump supporters who were aware of the negative effects of a Trump Presidency on minorities but rolled with it for their own possible benefit. They weren't supporting Trump because of the racism, they supported him in spite of it. The trick would be to convince them that the Democrats would serve their interests too (I think Hillary's "basket of deplorables" comment did its part to alienate enough white working class Democrats to flip the election).

Yes, people can be quite selfish. But it's rarely fruitful to treat politics as a game of ideal actors. We all have our biases, emotions, logical failures, etc. and political success requires accounting for these. Or, put less romantically: people might be idiots, but they can still be useful idiots.

I may seem cynical, but I do believe it is a cynical time.

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So a lot of people have been talking about the midterms, but I don't understand the significance of them. What's supposed to happen in 2018?

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4 minutes ago, Dizcrybe said:

So a lot of people have been talking about the midterms, but I don't understand the significance of them. What's supposed to happen in 2018?

Well, in 2018 we could see the Democrats take control of the House and the Senate which would be a good thing which might lead to getting Trump out of office in 2020.

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6 minutes ago, Dizcrybe said:

So a lot of people have been talking about the midterms, but I don't understand the significance of them. What's supposed to happen in 2018?

November 6, 2018.

Federally, 33 Senate seats and the whole House will be up for grabs. The Democrats have more Senate seats up for grabs than the Republicans, and a lot of them are in red states, so it's likely they will lose one or two, though they might gain one or two elsewhere. The House might see some slight seat pickups, but the GOP gerrymandered the House after the 2010 midterms so that they control almost all of the ones they have. Midterms normally go against the President's Party, so the Democrats will likely see small gains.

Where the real game changer is, though, is that almost every state is holding elections for their Governor and state legislature that year. If the Democrats flip a lot of state governments, they are in a strong position to not only resist the last two years of the Trump Presidency, but gain solid majorities with a Democratic win in 2020.

After 2020, there will be House redistricting in accordance with the Census. This means that if the Democrats control a lot of state governments, they can undo the GOP's gerrymandering. If they succeed in this, there's a real chance the Democrats can control all three branches of government through the 2020s.

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http://www.vox.com/world/2016/11/10/13585524/donald-trump-phone-call-south-korea-park-geun-hye

...the epic continues!

Now he's saying we will stand by South Korea, and I won't be surprised if he starts saying similar things about other US allies.

After one hell of a scare, it looks like he's rapidly casting away a lot of his crazier ideas. My guess is he's going to end up being center-right rather than holy shit right, assuming the trend continues.

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If Trump continues going back on a lot of his campaign pledges and rhetoric, evolving into some kind of weird, mainly conservative, sort of liberal hybrid, and behaves like a much more traditional (if still bombastic) GOP president, and nothing seriously wrong happens to the economy on his watch, what are the odds that 2020 is going to be another ruinous year for the Democrats?

Essentially, will it matter when his presidency doesn't match his campaign trail rhetoric, if nothing that bad happens to the economy? Are people going to notice, or even care, that Trump has turned his back on them? Will the Democrats have to stoke some fires?

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34 minutes ago, Patticus said:

If Trump continues going back on a lot of his campaign pledges and rhetoric, evolving into some kind of weird conservative liberal hybrid monster who is somehow more pleasing to many voters than the hyper-violent Trump of the campaign trail, and nothing seriously wrong happens to the economy on his watch, what are the odds that 2020 is going to be another ruinous year for the Democrats?

Pretty good.

I think a lot of the Clinton voters will trickle towards him if he's established as not being completely insane.

The hardcore Democrats are likely to turn out in sufficient numbers to flip some Congress seats and state governments, but without a disastrous Trump Presidency, I wouldn't be surprised if the damage is minimal, especially if he becomes a lot easier to tolerate. Midterm voters are, after all, the political equivalent of Amazon customers: happy to leave negative reviews but seldom materializing to leave positive ones.

Overall though, his abandoning the idea of a reckless repeal of Obamacare is probably going to win him the hearts and minds of many lower income folks. If he starts reversing course on the social issues, it will be really interesting to see where he stands. I don't think he plans on having a Civil Rights activist Justice Department, but if he's at least not passionate about making things worse...

I guess it really boils down to where the power lies. President Trump can cater to the far right within the GOP to secure support (in which case it sucks to be a minority), or he could try and build a base with the moderate Democrats when the GOP Congress gets in the way. It really boils down to whether the American people want the GOP more or President Trump... and I'm going to wager they want President Trump; the GOP was just along for the ride. Then there's the simple fact of name recognition; everybody knows Trump, but not everybody knows where their Congresspeople are in the faceless mass of Capitol Hill. Plus, when we consider the American support for gay marriage, marijuana, etc. it's pretty obvious popular opinion does not lie with the crazy elements of the GOP. My guess is voters just okayed them for office on the assumption they'd be more cooperative.

His victory speech focused on infrastructure of all things. Conciliatory remarks towards the same woman he was talking about throwing in prison and spent a year calling "Crooked Hillary." Sure, posturing... but also possibly an indicator he's going to rollback a lot of his insanity and actually try to govern.

I know everyone's worried about Cabinet Secretaries, but remember the fun part about those: they have to answer to him. Pence could theoretically declare Trump unfit for office, but Trump can likewise counter that he's okay to govern after a short period. The only way the GOP can get rid of Trump is impeachment, and if the GOP thinks he has to go, I'm sure the Democrats will change course and fight to prevent it.

Sounds like a hell of an optimistic scenario, I know, but this election cycle has been unpredictable. The only way to find out what he'll actually do versus what he said he'll do is to wait. The trend thus far is that he was bullshitting about a lot of things, so we can only pray he was bullshitting about a lot of the other things.

In other news...

http://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article114262543.html

Some more silver linings from a crappy election year. It looks like the GOP Governor of North Carolina, who backed the controversial bathroom bill, is going to lose his office to a Democratic challenger, who wants to repeal the law.

It seemed there was a sea of red this year, but it really looks like it was a purple tide if anything. Tight races all around. Slight gains for the Democrats in Congress, Trump barely winning the Presidency, all the marijuana laws passing contrary to the "law and order" stance of the GOP, and a gubernatorial race repudiating transphobia.

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And therein lies the anxiety that will dog me for the next four long years: The state of the economy. More specifically, the economy outside Wall St.

As we must remember, record stock prices and sunny skies over Wall St. mean precious little if middle America is still stagnating, if the poor aren't feeling their economies improve. Trump's as good a salesman as you can get, but can he sell a potentially declining economy to a poor and middle class America as being the best?

Scary times.

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A lot of my liberal friends are disowning people who voted Trump on the basis that his victory enabled racism, regardless of their personal reason for voting for him.

A lot of them presumably think FDR and the New Deal were awesome.

I take it the irony is lost on them.

2 hours ago, Patticus said:

Trump's as good a salesman as you can get, but can he sell a potentially declining economy to a poor and middle class America as being the best?

Scary times.

I doubt it, personally.

One reason Trump won this election, I think, is he did a better job than Hillary of making working class people (obviously skewed towards Northern European-descended whites, but he did surprisingly well among Latinos as well) feel visible in an era of globalization, automation, etc. They know their status, and I imagine they'll hold him to it. A lot of liberals are trying to pin his victory on this massive tide of ueber-racist types, which I have no doubt helped him, but they probably help any other GOP candidate too (the GOP was never this groundswell of progressivism, it just hides its bigotry normally).

The "basket of deplorables" remark, while no doubt accurate in there being plenty of vocal bigots in the Trump camp, was her equivalent of Romney's 47% remark, and probably made a lot of on-the-fence working class people who liked some of Trump's ideas feel belittled. While she wasn't referring to them specifically (I believe she said "half" of Trump's supporters were bigots), given how emotional people can get, I imagine quite a few people went, "I like some of Trump's ideas, so I'm part of a 'basket of deplorables?' Fuck you. I'm voting for him now." For someone who has been in politics so much, I guess she was so confident in her victory she didn't anticipate a huge emotional reaction from people over it. No matter how big or small a group's problems are, you should avoid making them feel less important when your goal is to build a coalition.

But back to the working class under a Trump administration. If those Rust Belt states don't see some major improvement, they're likely to flip blue again come the next election, especially if someone like Sanders, who had similar working class messages, is involved. If Trump and the GOP are smart, they're going to allocate a lot of any infrastructure funding to those areas in particular. They're the swing votes that will give him four more years. Regardless of whether Trump is the far right tyrant or the stealth socialist, infrastructure is so bipartisan I think it will pass either way.

Overall. Bernie presented the option of benefiting both minorities and the working class, but he wasn't chosen. A lot of working class whites, when presented with the option of going Hillary and being possibly ignored, or going Trump and receiving jobs, even if minorities were likely to suffer, chose the self-interest route, as most people will always do.

And if Trump shows he's not in their self-interest, they won't turn out for him again. Game over.

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5 hours ago, Noelgilvie said:

http://www.vox.com/world/2016/11/10/13585524/donald-trump-phone-call-south-korea-park-geun-hye

...the epic continues!

Now he's saying we will stand by South Korea, and I won't be surprised if he starts saying similar things about other US allies.

After one hell of a scare, it looks like he's rapidly casting away a lot of his crazier ideas. My guess is he's going to end up being center-right rather than holy shit right, assuming the trend continues.

...wow. This...is good news. All this time I've been looking at Trump as an idiot who will damage our diplomatic relations and here he is proving me wrong on South Korea.

I'm gonna remain skeptical in spite of this, but if he keeps this up and do this for much of the Pacific and NATO...

...this would be the biggest laugh ever if all this hot air got Trump into office and he starts benefiting the people that his opposition rallied against.

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29 minutes ago, Conquering Storm's Servant said:

...wow. This...is good news. All this time I've been looking at Trump as an idiot who will damage our diplomatic relations and here he is proving me wrong on South Korea.

I'm gonna remain skeptical in spite of this, but if he keeps this up and do this for much of the Pacific and NATO...

...this would be the biggest laugh ever if all this hot air got Trump into office and he starts benefiting the people that his opposition rallied against.

 

The skeptic in me says that he's just being awoken to the reality of politics... but that doesn't account for his reversal on Obamacare. He's got the GOP frothing at the mouth to get rid of it, and yet he wants to compromise on it. What gives?

I honestly think there's something going on in his head. I don't know if he was acting, is having a journey of personal discovery upon realizing he has to be the President of all Americans and not just under half of them, or what.

Either way, I'm liking the changes so far.

AND IT GETS BETTER.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/trump-teams-revenge-231222

Trump's inner circle are shutting the doors on GOP figures who were too vocal in their opposition to his Presidential bid, denying them entrance to his government.

His partner in the news, Breitbart, meanwhile, has made it clear it will continue with scathing attacks on Speaker Paul Ryan.

He admittedly might have a labor shortage, but a gesture like this... it could serve to leave the GOP splintered.

Trump may just turn out to be okay as a President if this keeps up.

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22 minutes ago, Ming Ming Hatsune said:

Is the "doom and gloom" discussion(s) over now?

I'm still cautious, since Trump could just as easily be saying this to avoid scrutiny while planning some kind of super narcissistic idea that could screw a lot of people over, but so far he is reigning in the apparent insanity he had during his campaign. I'll watch and wait for now.

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3 hours ago, Ming Ming Hatsune said:

Is the "doom and gloom" discussion(s) over now?

Oh don't worry,  I'm sure Trump's GOP, transphobic,  xenophobic,  and racist supporters will have their fair share to give if all his backtracking turns out to be for real. 

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Holy shit, this is promise-breaking of such an audacious nature that he makes Tony Abbott over here look like a fucking amateur, and Abbott sure as hell didn't get away with it. Voters do NOT like broken promises, especially blatant ones. If Trump comes off as bathing in the swamp rather than draining it, well, his voters aren't going to be thrilled. And we're not even getting into the numerous divisions within the GOP that prevent them from being able to do anything in the first place...

If nothing else, this is going to be interesting.

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I'm starting to hear that Paul Ryan intends to go further than just repealing the Affordable Care Act - I'm hearing that he is planning on privatizing Medicare...

If true, then the list of things that the next Democratic president is going to have to do to un-fuck the country is going to may well be a long one indeed. I hope they're backed up by some stable, focused majorities in the House and Senate - none of the fractious, confused, disorganized  "How liberal do we want to be?" hand-wringing of 2009-2010 that squandered their majorities back then.

Hopefully the GOP's actions will lead to a blue tide in 2020.

Edited by Patticus
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The Dems may have the deploy the filibuster a lot. Which leaves the GOP in a quandary, as Noelgilvie noted earlier, getting rid of the filibuster is the "Nuclear Option" for a damn good reason, the GOP can't do it without denying themselves a tool they themselves they could use later if they become the minority in the senate again. And if the GOP complain about the Democrats being 'obstructionist', they open themselves can simply say "yes, we are, but fuck you, you did the same thing when Obama was president, we're not obligated to play fair if you're not willing to either".

Also, there's theoretical talk of some of the electoral college voters voters actually going against their state majorities and denying Trump the presidency. On one hand, that's an inherently undemocratic outcome that nobody should be wanting to wish for, but on the other hand, if that's what it takes to finally get rid of the electoral college and replace it with something better...

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2018_Senate.png?1454995830

1280px-2020_Senate_election_map.png

2018 and 2020 Senate maps, top and bottom respectively.

2018 looks gloomy, but great news!

Looking over the 2012 map, the Democrats had most of their 2018 seats prior to the 2012 election, which means they would have won them in midterm year against Bush in 2006. So barring the Trump Presidency being awesome, a lot of voters in 2018 might just keep the northern border states blue, as well as Louisiana and West Virginia. Indiana is the tossup, as that's a state the Democrats only won in 2012 as part of Obama's coattails, no doubt.

They could possibly pick up Nevada and Arizona in 2018, which would bring the Democratic seats up to 50. Mike Pence would gain a lot of power at that point, but there's always the possibility of the Democrats flipping a single GOP Senator.

2020 is likely to see whoever wins the election winning the Senate due to coattails. Maine, North Carolina, Iowa... those are options.

Above all though, the state Governors and legislatures remain the real chess pieces in play in 2018 and even 2020, as these elections will decide the fate of the House for a whole decade.

6 hours ago, Jovahexeon the Sapphire said:

Oh don't worry,  I'm sure Trump's GOP, transphobic,  xenophobic,  and racist supporters will have their fair share to give if all his backtracking turns out to be for real. 

No doubt.

Even if Trump himself isn't the hateful monster we've come to see him as, it's a safe bet a lot of those unsavory types in his camp still are. The uptick in hate crimes after the election is evidence enough that "basket of deplorables" is real.

Pence still is bad news, the GOP platform is still bad news, etc.

5 hours ago, Candescence said:

Holy shit, this is promise-breaking of such an audacious nature that he makes Tony Abbott over here look like a fucking amateur, and Abbott sure as hell didn't get away with it. Voters do NOT like broken promises, especially blatant ones. If Trump comes off as bathing in the swamp rather than draining it, well, his voters aren't going to be thrilled. And we're not even getting into the numerous divisions within the GOP that prevent them from being able to do anything in the first place...

If nothing else, this is going to be interesting.

It's really hard to tell if he's just flipflopping for appeasement en route to office, but on the other hand... he is a New Yorker and was a Democrat from 2001 to 2009.

He's not going to be a Bernie Sanders liberal, but there's a good chance he is a moderate.

I think in terms of GOP obstruction and displeased anti-establishment voters, though, Trump could come out ahead if he plays his cards right. Now that he's President, he'll likely end up judged on his Presidency rather than his promises as a candidate per se. If he does manage to create jobs, I think a lot of people will let his sudden friendships with all these lobbyists slide.

Of course, this is precisely why lobbyists are such a problem. One good thing about the Trump victory, though, is how he utterly destroyed a political machine with a ton more money than his own. Campaigns have to be about being smart as much as being wealthy from now on.

3 hours ago, Patticus said:

I'm starting to hear that Paul Ryan intends to go further than just repealing the Affordable Care Act - I'm hearing that he is planning on privatizing Medicare...

If true, then the list of things that the next Democratic president is going to have to do to un-fuck the country is going to be a long one indeed. I hope they're backed up by some stable, focused majorities in the House and Senate - none of the fractious, confused, disorganized  "How liberal do we want to be?" hand-wringing of 2009-2010 that squandered their majorities back then.

Hopefully the GOP's actions will lead to a blue tide in 2020.

This really makes me ponder what Trump's plan is. If he's open to compromise on Obamacare, he just might end up sinking Ryan's insane plans.

Obamacare is objectively not the best bill possible - both Clinton and Sanders agreed on this - so it leaves the door open that we might get something better somehow.

In all likelihood, though, we're going to see some rollback and changes, without a full repeal. It will become Trumpcare, and the GOP will proudly boast about how it fixed it, when it really just tweaked it.

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2 hours ago, Dizcrybe said:

Wait, is the 2020 map the bottom one? Because that one looks more gloomy to me.

Correct.

The perk is that it's an election year. So if the Democrats cut a Trump Presidency short, they could take seats in Colorado, West Virginia, Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina.

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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-nine-times-betrayed-voters-us-election-2016-mexico-clinton-muslims-a7413341.html

The Epic of Trump drifting towards the center continues.

He's no longer interested in imprisoning Clinton.

On China, his call for high tariffs is being spun as a misrepresentation; tariffs would only be raised in response to currency manipulation.

He will "look over" the Iran deal, rather than ending it.

Waterboarding usage is being said to have just been campaign talk.

The blanket ban on Muslims has been replaced with a ban on immigration from unstable regions.

On Mexico, Newt Gingrich says Trump will ramp up border security but isn't going to make Mexico pay for a wall. He said "it was a great campaign device, though!" Like... hot damn. Talk about a slap to the face of your voters with a comment like that.

What a marvelous Aristotelian, though. He went as crazy as possible to get attention on the campaign trail, and is slowly settling in as a run of the mill Republican.

I can pray he'll make some statement about LGBT Americans or minorities next but I don't think we'll be that lucky. Either way, President Trump is slowly looking like he'll be meh with some drawbacks for minorities (though minorities will suffer under any GOP President really), rather than "Oh God what have we done."

Here's hoping he doesn't flip flop again once he's actually in.

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