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http://money.cnn.com/2018/07/01/news/canada-us-tariffs-steel-aluminum/index.html

Canada has levied tariffs on approximately $13 billion worth of US goods. Canadian Premier Trudeau has promised a policy of reciprocity: as the US raises tariffs, Canada will respond by targeting a roughly equivalent amount of US exports to Canada.

Noteworthy: as other countries are also firing back at the US with trade restrictions of their own, some analysts say this increases the odds of recession. They're still low due to economic stimulus from tax cuts and government spending, but the threat is there. The real concern is if Trump does not embrace decades of economic consensus that free trade is the way to go, the US will be in serious trouble as it's choked by tariffs while other economies open up to each other.

A recession's never good news, but I can't say it's entirely bad if it means this idiot gets limited to one term with half of it being restrained by an uncooperative Democratic Congress.

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Trump reportedly wants to leave the WTO, deeming it yet another foreign body that was created for the sole purpose of shitting on John and Jane Joe, average American citizens. It would be an action that would probably trigger (or slightly more indirectly precipitate) the most devastating recession in living memory, maybe in modern history. It certainly wouldn't help anybody.

I would laugh if Trump, master negotiator and supreme business leader in his own estimation, manages to destroy the US' formerly solid network of alliances, obliterate the US economy and send the global economy into a free-fall from which it may take decades to recover. It would provide unprecedented opportunities for oppressive and dictatorial regimes to not only eliminate dissenters in their own countries, but also to steamroll across their worse off neighbors, and you can bet it would probably see multiple western democracies turn into similarly awful regimes.

But perhaps Trump dreams of just such a world...

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So I’m hearing on social media that trump apparently wants to meet with putin alone with no one else present between the two. Is there a source where this is drawn from? Cause if this is true...just Jesus. And this is after all those republican senators went to Moscow with no media access whatsoever. Things aren’t looking good for the gop 

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On 6/28/2018 at 12:04 AM, SSF1991 said:

Can the midterms just get here already? I'm so sick of this. With every passing day, my stress and anxiety gets worse.

This Blue Wave better be a god damn big one...

That is why I avoid news or try to. Also that "blue wave" means nothing if a majority of that consists of pro corporate democrats. Gotta make sure people vote out the corrupt democrats and replace them with people who care about regular people. Kinda like they did in New York with Ms. Cortez. Truthfully Trump could win a second term. He really could. It all depends on what democratic side puts up against him.

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6 hours ago, TailsTellsTales said:

That is why I avoid news or try to. Also that "blue wave" means nothing if a majority of that consists of pro corporate democrats. Gotta make sure people vote out the corrupt democrats and replace them with people who care about regular people. Kinda like they did in New York with Ms. Cortez. Truthfully Trump could win a second term. He really could. It all depends on what democratic side puts up against him.

Something tells me Trump and his allies will keep screaming "REPEAL OBAMACARE" even as the Democrats solidify behind the public option and Medicare for All.

Combine that with an economic downturn and Trumpism will seem like an old hat.

Shit, it is already. Prior to the 2016 race, the GOP's own internal strategists were openly talking about the need to court youth and minority voters. Then Trump happened and delivered a surprise victory, but now the Party is kind of in a sticky situation where many are alienated from Trump in the general but his primary base is likely to keep him on the ballot.

The worst part in all this is that even with the best circumstances, Democrats are not going to hit 60 seats by the time 2020's race is over.

Of course, considering the crappy games McConnell was playing, perhaps that filibuster will be nuked for good so the Democratic Congress can easily pass whatever the new President has in mind. A word of caution, however: the consensus element in the Senate arguably has a lot to do with how spectacularly the GOP's attempts to repeal Obamacare imploded, as moderate Democrats made the original bill far less liberal and thus easier for moderate Republicans to swallow.

That said, I honestly hope Dems go the whole nine yards, packing the courts, enlarging the House (which would erase the GOP's advantage in the Electoral College), passing a new Voting Rights Act with modern criteria that allows them to gut a lot of red states' representation in Congress... the GOP released the power monopolization dragon, but the Democrats can release a far bigger one if they get their act together.

I'd frankly prefer an America where the Democratic primaries are the real election at this point. Not every Democratic politician is a big government liberal who wants to confiscate everyone's guns and open abortion drive-thrus on every corner, but the GOP's moderate voices seem to be disappearing by comparison. And no, someone like Bush or Romney criticizing Trump does not magically make them a moderate.

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A person with connections to Alfa Bank being appointed to a position with direct involvement in the Russia investigation would be, well, it'd be a dire threat to the investigation. Gotta toxify the swamp, right?

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The Supreme Court pick is tonight. Nerve racking to say the least, and a lot of people are concerned about the potential of overturning of many civil rights laws. Least going by what I’m hearing on the news at least. Guess we’ll find out what happens after tonight in the next few months 

edit: it’s Brett Kavanaugh. A 53 year old hard conservative. FUN.

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https://www.npr.org/2018/07/10/627504728/brett-kavanaugh-supported-broad-leeway-for-presidents-under-investigation

Kavanaugh is also on the record for saying Presidents deserve to have all charges deferred until after they out of office, saying the impeachment process is sufficient enough to punish serious wrongdoing.

In an era where partisanship wasn't the name of the game, maybe. Idiot.

https://www.vox.com/2018/7/9/17549380/collins-murkowski-supreme-court-brett-kavanaugh

With McCain being largely unavailable due to his medical issues, the Senate is basically split 50-49 and a single Republican can sink any nomination. Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have consistently pro-choice records and voted to protect the Affordable Care Act; they also were the ones who forced Betsy DeVos' nomination to require Pence's vote. They are seen as possible defectors, though they say they are going to hold one on one meetings first.

They voted in favor of the pro-life Gorsuch, but it must be remembered Kennedy kept the Court from going all the way to right. If they really give a damn about abortion rights, they need to insist the next justice be a moderate like Kennedy. They should push for a Libertarian-style candidate who would be conservative on economics but would be okay with gay marriage, abortion rights, etc. if anything.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/07/us/politics/democrats-supreme-court-nominee.html

It's an ugly situation, though. There are three particularly vulnerable Democrats in Trump country. They have the tough choice of voting for Kavanaugh and alienating their Democratic base, or voting against him and alienating more conservative voters in the general.

Democrats basically have to pick between having a 5-4 conservative majority for the time being, or retaking the Senate and being in a position to appoint liberals to replace the older liberal justices and possibly conservative Justice Thomas, who is getting up there in years.

Now... a word that not all is lost. The Supreme Court is not an apolitical body; it just gives off the appearance of being one. They know that if they started looking too political, they'd run the risk of their power and prestige being gutted. So while they make plenty of controversial decisions, they are careful to avoid looking like the tools of the Presidents or Senators that put them in power.

This is perhaps most pronounced in the actions of Chief Justice Roberts, who has voted to protect gay rights on multiple occasions despite voting against legalizing gay marriage when it was before the Court. He is by no means a moderate or a liberal; he just understands where the wind is blowing, and rolling back those laws would trigger serious backlash. Similarly, Roberts voted that Obamacare was constitutional (excepting the required Medicaid expansion, which he claimed was violating Congressional statutes, which is blatantly bullshit (how does a new law of Congress break a prior law of Congress???), but I digress), whereas the ever "moderate" Kennedy wanted to strike down Obamacare's individual mandate.

That is likely what will be Roe v Wade's saving grace. Gorsuch and Kavanaugh, a pair of upstarts who probably salivate at the idea of overturning decades of precedent, are liable to be neutralized by someone more pragmatic like Roberts.

The Supreme Court values its independence. Rolling back the Roe and Casey decisions after they've gained so much popularity (I recall abortions in the first trimester have support of around 70%, a stark contrast to much lower numbers for second and third trimesters) runs the risk of serious blowback, and a Democratic packing of the court when the opportunity presents itself.

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4 hours ago, Bergamo (Ogilvie) said:

https://www.npr.org/2018/07/10/627504728/brett-kavanaugh-supported-broad-leeway-for-presidents-under-investigation

Kavanaugh is also on the record for saying Presidents deserve to have all charges deferred until after they out of office, saying the impeachment process is sufficient enough to punish serious wrongdoing.

In an era where partisanship wasn't the name of the game, maybe. Idiot.

https://www.vox.com/2018/7/9/17549380/collins-murkowski-supreme-court-brett-kavanaugh

With McCain being largely unavailable due to his medical issues, the Senate is basically split 50-49 and a single Republican can sink any nomination. Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have consistently pro-choice records and voted to protect the Affordable Care Act; they also were the ones who forced Betsy DeVos' nomination to require Pence's vote. They are seen as possible defectors, though they say they are going to hold one on one meetings first.

They voted in favor of the pro-life Gorsuch, but it must be remembered Kennedy kept the Court from going all the way to right. If they really give a damn about abortion rights, they need to insist the next justice be a moderate like Kennedy. They should push for a Libertarian-style candidate who would be conservative on economics but would be okay with gay marriage, abortion rights, etc. if anything.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/07/us/politics/democrats-supreme-court-nominee.html

It's an ugly situation, though. There are three particularly vulnerable Democrats in Trump country. They have the tough choice of voting for Kavanaugh and alienating their Democratic base, or voting against him and alienating more conservative voters in the general.

Democrats basically have to pick between having a 5-4 conservative majority for the time being, or retaking the Senate and being in a position to appoint liberals to replace the older liberal justices and possibly conservative Justice Thomas, who is getting up there in years.

Now... a word that not all is lost. The Supreme Court is not an apolitical body; it just gives off the appearance of being one. They know that if they started looking too political, they'd run the risk of their power and prestige being gutted. So while they make plenty of controversial decisions, they are careful to avoid looking like the tools of the Presidents or Senators that put them in power.

This is perhaps most pronounced in the actions of Chief Justice Roberts, who has voted to protect gay rights on multiple occasions despite voting against legalizing gay marriage when it was before the Court. He is by no means a moderate or a liberal; he just understands where the wind is blowing, and rolling back those laws would trigger serious backlash. Similarly, Roberts voted that Obamacare was constitutional (excepting the required Medicaid expansion, which he claimed was violating Congressional statutes, which is blatantly bullshit (how does a new law of Congress break a prior law of Congress???), but I digress), whereas the ever "moderate" Kennedy wanted to strike down Obamacare's individual mandate.

That is likely what will be Roe v Wade's saving grace. Gorsuch and Kavanaugh, a pair of upstarts who probably salivate at the idea of overturning decades of precedent, are liable to be neutralized by someone more pragmatic like Roberts.

The Supreme Court values its independence. Rolling back the Roe and Casey decisions after they've gained so much popularity (I recall abortions in the first trimester have support of around 70%, a stark contrast to much lower numbers for second and third trimesters) runs the risk of serious blowback, and a Democratic packing of the court when the opportunity presents itself.

The part of me that hopes the good bits will happen is very overshadowed by the part of me that’s saying “this is just overly optimistic fantasies at best. The GOP have completely taken over and we’re gonna lose everything.” I’ll still keep fighting and hoping but it feels like the evil is just choking out everything and posts like this come off as overly optimistic.

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The evil only really wins if you give up.

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1 hour ago, Conquering Storm’s Servant said:

The evil only really wins if you give up.

No need to tell me that. I’m still gonna keep fighting however I can. It’s just incredibly demoralizing how much it seems like these selfish bastards keep getting their way and are so determined to keep the world as dystopian as possible, and a good chunk of the country just doesn’t give a fuck or openly embraces it.

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Kavanaugh's nomination is not gonna be straightforward. The guy has such a massive paper trail that even the shortest estimate could very well push his confirmation vote till after the midterms.

Quote

But the quantity of files potentially at issue in Kavanaugh's case could be unprecedented. Former officials believe millions of pages of emails and other documents circulated through Kavanaugh's office during his time as staff secretary. If Senate Democrats insist on receiving every page, the confirmation process could grind to a crawl.

And the more moderate GOP senators will likely baulk at the idea of a scare campaign by the Democrats based on a "coverup" of his files.

 

Also, Kennedy basically picked his own successor, which is corrupt as fuck:

 

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6 hours ago, SenEDDtor Missile said:

No need to tell me that. I’m still gonna keep fighting however I can. It’s just incredibly demoralizing how much it seems like these selfish bastards keep getting their way and are so determined to keep the world as dystopian as possible, and a good chunk of the country just doesn’t give a fuck or openly embraces it.

Elections only happen every two years. It feels hopeless because we still aren't even two years from 2016's upset. But we are very, very close.

The GOP built up a huge power base during Obama's term, and they topped it off with a barely won Presidency in 2016.

Now that the GOP rules everything, everything that goes wrong will be owned by them. And for all their love of vote rigging, the numbers indicate even they can't hope to avoid enormous electoral blood loss later this year.

Even if they keep Congress, they are liable to lose a shitload of Governorships. And when Governors become uncooperative, the federal government's plans quickly grind to a halt; uncooperative GOP Governors undermined Obamacare (and are the reason low information voters think Obamacare was bad for their state... ignoring the real culprit are GOP Governors who refused to expand Medicaid despite free federal money), and uncooperative Governors of both parties undermined marijuana prohibition.

Honestly, if the federal government does overturn Roe v. Wade, I highly expect a bunch of states to immediately pass laws legalizing abortion. The ball will be in the FBI's court to enforce an abortion prohibition. I do not doubt doctors who formally specialize in care for pregnant women will be given leeway to offer abortions on a hush hush basis.

The frequent elections will provide a check on the Presidency, and federalism will provide a check on what insanity goes on on Capitol Hill.

The Framers who wrote the Federalist Papers would be proud at the system working as intended. People of questionable virtue or sanity will periodically enter office, but mechanisms are in place that allow us to drastically reduce their power.

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https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/10/politics/donald-trump-nato-summit-2018/index.html

And Trump has reset the "Days Without Being a National Embarrassment" clock back to zero, sharply criticizing NATO members. He demanded the European allies increase their contribution to the alliance and accused Germany of being dependent on Russia for energy supplies.

People who actually don't talk out their ass (like German and NATO officials) were quick to point out Germany has a variety of energy supplies and has been actively working to rebuff Russian advances in the Ukraine.

Trump continues to yell at European NATO members for not increasing defense spending to 2%, even though the agreement was to increase it to 2% by 2024. He continues to frame a failure to reach the 2% as them being "delinquent" on payments. For a guy who boasts about his business prowess, he apparently doesn't know how the Hell agreements and contracts work.

Here's the best part: the US' NATO Ambassador chimed in that NATO allies have been increasing their spending and will reach the 2% mark by 2024. There is no obligation for them to hike it to 2% immediately. Trump continues to demonstrate severe lack of fitness to serve in that he completely disregards accords made by his predecessors.

Trump has been threatening NATO members that the US could pull its support, but the European Council responded with a simple suggestion that America appreciate its allies, because it does not have many.

With Brexit's uncertain future and a nativist having been defeated in France's election last year, I think Trump is probably driving serious EU integration chatter behind the scenes. His nationalistic idiocy is liable to push Europe towards becoming a more coherent entity that can more effectively compete with the USA. In short, he has betrayed a lack of understanding of international politics, being completely unaware that American internationalism has been pursued across administrations because the US benefits from it. He will make the United States poorer, and history will not be kind to his legacy.           

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America has just taken a major step in becoming a fascist police state

What are the odds of this passing, and if Democrats take back the House this November, what can they do to counter it?

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It might pass, but don’t expect it to stay for long if the Democrats gain control.

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Yeah should we see that blue wave this year, shit like this will more than likely be the first thing to go if it passes.

But the gop lately have been pretty great I’ll admit at not giving a fuck and making their ambitions and goals clear. Oppression, hate, silence towards different views that challenge them, etc. wonder what changed, as even during trumps beginning of his term they iirc were fairly discreet and careful(well as much as the gop at the time could be considered “careful”) with how they would push certain policies. Now, it just seems like a free for all “go ahead sound tyrannical and fascist all you want” group.:/

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2 hours ago, KHCast said:

Yeah should we see that blue wave this year, shit like this will more than likely be the first thing to go if it passes.

But the gop lately have been pretty great I’ll admit at not giving a fuck and making their ambitions and goals clear. Oppression, hate, silence towards different views that challenge them, etc. wonder what changed, as even during trumps beginning of his term they iirc were fairly discreet and careful(well as much as the gop at the time could be considered “careful”) with how they would push certain policies. Now, it just seems like a free for all “go ahead sound tyrannical and fascist all you want” group.:/

Well, it's possible that:

1) They're terrified of Mueller's investigation digging up dirt that they can't hide under the rug, so they're trying to shove in as many fascistic policies through in hopes of either burying it to save their skins, or at least to make it so that if they do end up getting screwed, they can at least bleat towards their base about how awful the Democrats are, since they're the ones having to deal with the fallout of the GOP regime's scheming if they take back the house and have to undo all of the damage the GOP did.

2) Trump's evil is making them bolder, and their overlord Putin is promising them even more total control so they feel confident that they can force the absolute GOP regime with no real threat, regardless of what Mueller digs up.

3) Both.

 

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If this political climate wasn’t as bizarre as fuck as it is, I’d find both possibilities too far out there to believe.

Heck, I still do. But at this point, I find it too hard to put anything past me.

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11 minutes ago, Conquering Storm’s Servant said:

If this political climate wasn’t as bizarre as fuck as it is, I’d find both possibilities too far out there to believe.

Heck, I still do. But at this point, I find it too hard to put anything past me.

We're in the Insane Timeline of Earth.

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I'm going to step in to say that while the bill is repugnant, the majority of bills end up dying in committee. Notice that it was "referred." That means it was simply sent to a committee, where it will either be scheduled for a hearing to determine whether to release it to the House floor, or if it will stay in committee and die at the end of the session.

If the bill did get released to the House, it would then fall to the Rules/Speaker's Committee to decide under what rules it would be released into the House for a floor vote.

Finally, after that committee does all that, it falls to the Speaker of the House to schedule a vote on it. Paul Ryan is probably not going to prioritize that bill.

Senate process is only a little different; at the end of the day, only a tiny portion of bills make it out of committee and to the floor for a vote, and even then a small portion pass the chamber, then the other chamber, and are signed into law.

There's a lot of procedural stuff that slows down the process of stuff getting done, which is why the GOP has been able to pass so little despite the fact they have practically every card right now.

tl;dr: if you look through the various bills that have been introduced, you'll see a lot of concerning bills that never got beyond committee, and if they did, the Rules Committee and Speaker opted to not give them any attention.

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https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2018/07/rule-making-legal-ban-gays-lesbians-adopting-passes-house-committee/#.W0dghTwf_YA.facebook

again with the “religious right” defense uuuughhh. Also yeah I’m starting to think more and more at this point republicans are just trying to shove whatever they can before the potential blue wave. Cause this just comes off incredibly stupid long term as a policy and just oozes homophobia and legal ramifications waiting to happen.(this also for the record effects other groups as well not just lgbt, just adding to the idiocy of it all.)

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Has anybody saw that the U.N. had to come and visit the U.S. to see first hand the extreme poverty and other disparities in the U.S.? Very sad that it has gotten so bad that the U.N. had to come and investigate. I wish economic issues were treated just as important as social issues since both are connected.

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15 hours ago, KHCast said:

https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2018/07/rule-making-legal-ban-gays-lesbians-adopting-passes-house-committee/#.W0dghTwf_YA.facebook

again with the “religious right” defense uuuughhh. Also yeah I’m starting to think more and more at this point republicans are just trying to shove whatever they can before the potential blue wave. Cause this just comes off incredibly stupid long term as a policy and just oozes homophobia and legal ramifications waiting to happen.(this also for the record effects other groups as well not just lgbt, just adding to the idiocy of it all.)

Assuming it gets to the House floor, and even if it passes, I expect it will die in the Senate. There are several pro-LGBT Republican Senators. Routine defectors Collins and Murkowski in particular, but other moderates like Heller and Flake have a mixed record where they believe marriage should be heterosexual only, but otherwise often vote pro-LGBT.

If the writers of the Federalist Papers are in some afterlife, they are laughing their asses off at the Constitution working as they intended.

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