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The General 'Murican Politics Thread

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https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/19/15827686/georgia-election-ossoff-money

Quote

Handel has attacked that fundraising while raking in large amounts of cash from outside groups herself. The US Chamber of Commerce, Donald Trump, and the National Republican Congressional Committee have all directly raised money for Handel’s campaign, which may in turn be used to fund the anti–outside money attacks.

Moreover, Super PACs have poured millions into the race on Handel’s behalf, and of the donations sent directly to her campaign, 78 percent have come from outside of Georgia (the number is 96 percent for Ossoff), according to the AJC. Ossoff has received money from three times as many donors within the state of Georgia as Handel.

In what hopefully surprises no one, the GOP candidate has been exposed as a massive hypocrite. While Ossoff raises more of his dollar value from out of state, Handel's is still incredibly high. Meanwhile, Ossoff's donations are distributed across a larger pool of people, many more of them in Georgia than Handel.

In short? Handel is the real pawn of an out of touch elite. Ossoff is getting more of his support from the actual people in Georgia, regardless of donation size.

As the article raises, the public image the GOP crafts is extremely dangerous. They are very good at painting Democrats as puppets of Pelosi, and even refusing money from the DNC isn't likely to change that.

Democrats would do good to actively use statistics like these to silence critics of "outside money" by making it apparent the GOP does it too.

Hell, it'd be even better if we could get bipartisan support for mandatory public funding of elections but oh no, that's government spending, and we can't have that, even if it would prevent absurd amounts of spending like what the Georgia 6th is seeing. Do we really need tens of millions of dollars spent on a House seat?

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/ossoff-handel-blast-ad-tying-democrats-shooting-georgia-house-race

Meanwhile, both candidates have slammed an ad saying that if Democrats like Ossoff win, more shootings like what happened to Rep. Scalise will happen.

I'm sorry but the people who made that ad are objectively pieces of shit.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/06/19/daily-202-congressional-shooting-clouds-final-days-of-georgia-special-election/5946e314e9b69b2fb981dd76/?tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.38f47b715c69

Meanwhile, the Georgia GOP chair is convinced the shooting will give them the election.

Not so fast, I'd say. Scalise backed the AHCA, and that bill's damage to lives is an open secret now. I don't know if many voters would give genuine sympathy to him when he's so willing to destroy other people's lives. People might wish him a recovery, but that doesn't mean they'll wish people like him stay in power.

This is also ignoring the fact a ton of the votes have already been cast early, and Election Day is going to lean Republican anyway. He needs an increased turnout of several points based on polls to change the result. We all thought bodyslamming a reporter would change the Montana race, but it didn't. This shooting might not make a big enough effect to change this race, especially given Ossoff has condemned the violence and is not tied to it outside of some far right delusions.

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http://decisiondeskhq.com/results/georgia-sixth-congressional-district-special/

http://decisiondeskhq.com/results/south-carolina-fifth-congressional-district-special/

Judgment Day is finally upon us. Results are expected to star coming in within 20 minutes.

News reports indicate the Georgia 6th saw a lot of rain today, which made the GOP nervous that turnout would be decreased (the GOP is scared about low turnout for a change because it's expected today's turnout will lean Republican). However, election officials indicate turnout is remaining "slow but steady."

These races may not necessarily predict 2018, but they will indicate 1. whether Democrats can flip deep red districts and 2. if Republican politicians are likely to embrace Trump or move away from Trump.

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Hate to double post but we have our first results. Handel is currently leading by 2.8% or so with 73,360 votes in, mostly early votes it looks like. Early votes totaled 140,000, so this is far from over. However, if Ossoff doesn't raise his margins by the time the early vote is counted, his odds of winning are slim.

http://www.politico.com/interactives/2017/georgia-special-election-results-2017-ossoff-handel-race/

I like this version better because it has a breakdown by precinct. If you compare this map to the April primary, the results are pretty consistent, with each candidate capturing the same area. For Ossoff to win, he has to flip at least a few precincts from the GOP. We'll have a better idea where the race is going once precincts are fully counted and colored accordingly.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/georgia-south-carolina-special-elections/?lpup=22818801#livepress-update-22818801

 

entenmatsumoto-ga-benchmark-1.png?w=1150

FiveThirtyEight has a neat little map to show approximately how much of the vote Ossoff is going to want to carry in each county to win.

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South Carolina's 5th District also had a special election today to fill in Mick Mulvaney's old seat. It seems that the Norman will win, keeping the seat Republican, but Parnell's supposedly beat most expectations.

 

EDIT: Handel's projected to win GA-06: https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/georgia-sixth-congressional-district-special/

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In today's 4 races, no seats changed hands. However, we have seen the usual increase in Democratic margins. Mick Mulvaney normally carried the South Carolina 5th with 60% of the vote, but his successor only carried it 51%. By contrast, Tom Price carried the Georgia 6th with 62% last year (and 66% in 2014), but Handel only carried it with 52%.

Now, the South Carolina 5th had lower turnout than usual, but this is precisely what causes the midterm effect in the first place. If every single person regularly voted, we'd see little change in the government. But the tendency of opposition voters to turn out more causes seats to routinely flip.

The next big races are in November, and will probably be more predictive of how the GOP will do in 2018 than these races. After those races, we'll also get an idea of the candidate field for 2018, and we have to remember candidates can be just as important as Party; a lot of Trump's support wasn't for him, but simple opposition to Clinton.

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I don't have the time to make a detailed post, but G6 was expected, a relief and disappointing in equal measure.

It was expected because a single digit win in either direction would have fit the polling and general modeling done by groups like 538 perfectly. The polling, in short, was not off.

It was a relief because the 4 point win by Handel falls in line with a 15 year leftward trend in the district - in almost every election since '02, the GOP margin of victory has shrank considerably. It will be a district in play next year, and given the painfully slow trend to the left, it could very easily be flipped.

It was disappointing, despite the predictable result, because the Democrats needed to claim more than just a moral victory, a promise of "We'll get them next time!" in this Special Election - they needed to take Handel's metaphorical scalp. The race quickly became a referendum on Trump's red state support, whether the Democrats could successfully woo reluctant Trump supporters, plus his agenda and GOP policies in general. Clearly he still commands the support of most of his base, and clearly they're still ready to turn out in support of his policies.

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http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/21/politics/ron-johnson-health-care-cnntv/index.html

GOP Senator Johnson of Wisconsin has said he will not vote yes on the Senate bill if it's not reviewed publicly so his constituents can voice their opinion on it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/senate-health-care-draft-repeals-obamacare-taxes-provides-bigger-subsidies-for-low-income-americans-than-house-bill/2017/06/21/3f2226ee-56bd-11e7-ba90-f5875b7d1876_story.html?utm_term=.4096dd27d7b4

We have a leaked draft, however.

It's basically the same as the House bill - eliminating funding for Planned Parenthood, rolling back Medicaid, etc. - with a few differences. The House bill's language restricting federal funds for abortions has been struck out because it could conflict with reconciliation, while premiums are being tied to income rather than age, a la what the ACA currently proposes. Medicaid will remain intact until 2021, after which it will see drastic cuts over the course of 3 years. It's expected this is to win over the moderate Senators who want to make sure it's not drastically cut until they've been re-elected.

This isn't a final bill, however. The Planned Parenthood provision will surely run afoul of Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, who tend to break with the GOP on abortion rights, while other Senators may not be comfortable with the Medicaid provisions or the continued elimination of pre-existing conditions.

Even if they do alter the bill to pass the Senate, it still has to pass the House. It's going to be a long slog.

Unfortunately, the GOP probably feels little incentive to shelve healthcare given their continued victories in special elections.

13 hours ago, Dizcrybe said:

Given that Dems haven't been winning so far, I don't expect anything to come of November.

They've already taken two state House seats in districts that were historically Republican. Dems are net +1 for this year, though, because they didn't run a candidate in a district that votes 67-33 Democrat most of the time, so it went to the GOP.

It's worth noting the bulk of these special races were safely red seats; the average shift towards Democrats has been 10 points, but that's not enough to win most of these races. Trump may not be that bright, but someone in that administration is being smart and making sure they don't appoint people from swing areas.

Virginia and New Jersey are safely swingy, leaning Dem. We'll have an idea where Democrats really stand 5 months from now.

Anyway, I do hope that despite your pessimism you'll still be making a point to turn out in November 2018.

KHCast and Patticus like this

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11 hours ago, Lord Liquir (Ogilvie) said:

Virginia and New Jersey are safely swingy, leaning Dem. We'll have an idea where Democrats really stand 5 months from now.

I wouldn't say that. Well, for Virginia, anyway.

Virginia has been turning blue for quite some time, since 2008. Before then, my state was your average Southern one. It was one of those reliable GOP states for decades, for roughly 50 years. Before Obama, LBJ was the last Democrat to get Virginia's electoral votes. I remember in elementary school, which was almost 15 years ago, and seeing many Confederate flags flying around. I don't see that as much now, although there was that recent Confederate monument "alt-right" rally thing that happened not too long ago. Sometimes I will get reminders that my state still has a significant conservative population. But it's not on the scale it used to be. I hear and see just as much liberal/left influence in Virginia now, and it seems to be increasing in frequency.

My state is blue now. Maybe even solid blue. It voted for Hillary by 5% in 2016, even with the political climate being the way it was. In fact, that percentage is only 1% lower than the amount Obama got in 2008 and 1% higher than what he got in 2012. Yes, Hillary got a higher percentage of votes in 2016 than Obama got for his last term in 2012. In Virginia, amusingly.

I think it's the same reason that states like Texas, Nevada, and others have been seeing. The Latino population has been soaring in my state. In fact, I've noticed the change in my own neighborhood, something I couldn't say 10 years ago. lol

The GOPs odds are not with them in this state anymore. And they get worse every year. I'm not too worried about my state's elections later this year, but I have been keeping it in the back of my mind, just in case.

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