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Tornado

The General 'Murican Politics Thread

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Oh hey look, as if on cue...

Quelle surprise.

I understand that there's a certain level of indignant outrage at Warren, from some in the indigenous community who object to DNA testing as being the sole arbiter of what constitutes a Native American and what doesn't, but she's proven that the family stories her family elders raised her on have a kernel of truth to them, and pretty well everyone she knows has gone on record stating she has never used her heritage for personal gain. No, she hasn't lived her life as a native, but she also doesn't claim to be properly Native American either - she only claims to have native blood, which she does.

She's done what she needs to. Indigenous folk who are angry at her need to chill the fuck out and be happy that she's proud of her heritage, and in a position to maybe improve their lot in life.

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https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/16/politics/heitkamp-apologizes-sexual-assault-survivors/index.html

Heidi Heitkamp's prospects just took another dip. Her campaign aired an ad with the names of many North Dakota women who were victims of sexual assault, without their knowledge or consent.

While some of the names listed have denied it, others have said it is true but they will no longer support Heitkamp.

On one hand, I do get the outrage here, and it is absolutely justified. On the other, I don't think her opponent would be any more sensitive to this issue.

Two party politics really does suck, but I would say the Democrats have more of a political purity issue that explains why they lose so badly in so many races. Republicans have much more discipline in supporting their candidates even if they greatly dislike them.

Likewise, this is the same reason I'm still behind Joe Manchin even if he is obnoxiously DINO. He is still better than a full on Republican Senator.

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57 minutes ago, Coyote (Ogilvie) said:

Two party politics really does suck, but I would say the Democrats have more of a political purity issue that explains why they lose so badly in so many races. Republicans have much more discipline in supporting their candidates even if they greatly dislike them.

There is flaw to that statement. The thing is Republicans tend to not back down and will fight back and not to mention they are generally very far right while Democrats on the other hand tend to capitulate and cave in to Republicans and are generally mix of center left and center right. It's no wonder democrats have this purity thing when they keep giving in to Republicans. Remember under Obama democrats happily gave in to support extending tax cuts for the rich, supporting tpp, supporting a republican healthcare plan instead of single payer, and of course bailing out wall street TWICE under both Bush and Obama. Meanwhile Republicans can easily somehow keep passing tax cuts for the rich. At least this time not a single democrat or independent (senator wise) supported it.

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Just donated $25 to Four Directions, the Native American voting rights group that is going to be active in North Dakota's elections to try and combat the voter suppression.

Money is tight for me but I figured it was a good cause.

5 minutes ago, TailsTellsTales said:

There is flaw to that statement. The thing is Republicans tend to not back down and will fight back and not to mention they are generally very far right while Democrats on the other hand tend to capitulate and cave in to Republicans and are generally mix of center left and center right. It's no wonder democrats have this purity thing when they keep giving in to Republicans. Remember under Obama democrats happily gave in to support extending tax cuts for the rich, supporting tpp, supporting a republican healthcare plan instead of single payer, and of course bailing out wall street TWICE under both Bush and Obama. Meanwhile Republicans can easily somehow keep passing tax cuts for the rich. At least this time not a single democrat or independent (senator wise) supported it.

That's because of the different political demographics.

With the way constituencies are drawn, Democrats need to actively give concessions to maintain relevance. Republicans, on the other hand, tend to have more consolidated bases and so are easily rewarded by playing hardball.

Most polling shows more Americans identifying as conservative on that note (even though most Americans are also supportive of New Deal-esque economics). This has been a big part of the GOP's ability to do what it wants: it has less need to reach across the aisle. The Senate is slanted towards the GOP, as are more House districts, and the same goes for most single-member districts. For Democrats to win, they need to compromise. Republicans do not need to do any such thing.

But then they get hate for daring to compromise, and the base is content to punish them.

Except... Democrats who never compromised would never win, so the GOP would have a perpetual monopoly on power.

This is a really ugly situation.

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https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/17/politics/donald-trump-republicans/index.html

The fact Trump is a partisan of convenience has never been so apparent. Asked if he would think himself responsible if the GOP lost control of the House, he gave a simple no. After all, he has endorsed plenty of candidates who have won, so it could not possibly be his fault.

This is quite terrifying for the GOP: Trump is clearly willing to distance himself from them if they lose. It is expected he would quite happily cut deals with Democrats if they take the House.

It's no surprise he's more interested in re-election than in the Party, so for all we know, Democrats could leverage this to get some liberal Court appointments and the like in spite of not controlling the Senate.

I'm okay with this, bring on the Federalist Papers' strategy. The House is supposed to be a means for the larger states to hold the smaller states' feet to the fire and prevent the Senate from devolving into an oligarchic mess.

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https://www.npr.org/2018/10/18/658255884/voter-turnout-could-hit-50-year-record-for-midterm-elections

Data indicates that we may see a record amount of turnout for the midterms this year, 45-50%. Data is being compared to other years like 2010 and 2014, and there is such an enormous enthusiasm for voting in primaries, records in special elections, etc. that we will see far more participation than usual.

Early voting is already breaking records where it has begun in states like Georgia.

Polling does show the Republicans have seen a growth in enthusiasm as well, but among Democrats it is just astounding.

It will be a tense few weeks until Election Day night.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/18/politics/beto-orourke-definitive-no-president-2020/index.html

At his town hall tonight, Texas Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke ruled out a Presidential run in 2020. He said he is committed to serving his full Senate term if he wins.

Of course, his term is up in 2024, when Trump will be outgoing even if he wins re-election, and the Presidency will be ripe for Democrats to take. Furthermore, if Beto wins, it is likely more because people hate Cruz, so it would be a perfect time to exit the Senate.

My God, this man is not even trying anymore.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/15/chinas-great-leap-backward-xi-jinping/

Food for thought: Xi's moves towards making China a bureaucratic nightmare might cause a serious decline in China's economic power and influence, and Trump will probably win re-election by taking credit for it.

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First day of early voting is showing promising returns!

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/412263-early-voting-hints-at-huge-turnout

Further substantiated by The Hill, which reports 4.6 million people have already cast ballots. This election is looking poised to have the highest turnout for a midterm in decades.

Me personally, I have scheduled an Uber to the polls on Tuesday. I've also researched all the "nonpartisan" candidates, discovered which side they're really on, and have marked them as yes or no votes in my sample ballot.

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Possibly, but the independent vote is generally a waste unless the person is a former popular incumbent or until we get instant runoff voting.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-19/midterm-elections-2018

Early voter turnout is smashing records. Four times as many people have voted in Tennessee than in 2014.

In Nevada, so far Democratic ballots are carrying the day in Washoe County. That is one of Republican Senator Heller's strongest bases of support. If there's not a change in the trend over the next two weeks or huge turnout on Election Day in his favor, he will quite possibly lose his seat.

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https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/22/politics/forecast-scott-walker-underdog/index.html

Political winds change quickly. Incumbent GOP Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin looked well-poised to get a third term for most of the past four years, but recent polling has him lagging behind the Democrat. This is a trend across the Midwest. While the Great Lakes states paved the way for Trump to take the White House, it looks like that victory has been short lived, and the region is moving back towards its Democratic roots.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/22/1806370/-6-in-10-NBC-WSJ-poll-captures-dramatic-late-movement-towards-Dem?utm_campaign=trending

More bad news for the GOP. A lot of the independent voters who disliked both parties but went for Trump in 2016 seem to prefer the Democrats controlling Congress by a huge margin. 59 percent, actually.

If those numbers translate into votes, this won't be a blue wave. It will be a blue tsunami.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/22/politics/trump-factor-all-about-him/index.html

Trump's active campaigning strategy seems to be losing its luster. Rather like how a lot of people loved Obama but did not care to vote for his allies, even as Trump insists on pretending he's at the top of the a ballot, the Republicans are trailing in most of the states that were critical for him.

Here's a real topper: Trump's speeches are increasingly not receiving any coverage because of the constant campaigning. This is reportedly irritating him immensely, because it's hurting his ability to reach his base.

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14 hours ago, Coyote (Ogilvie) said:

Here's a real topper: Trump's speeches are increasingly not receiving any coverage because of the constant campaigning. This is reportedly irritating him immensely, because it's hurting his ability to reach his base.

It's the same principle at work that causes horrific wars to vanish from the headlines - once people become used to it, it loses its 'special' factor and people become disinterested. News outlets, chasing ratings, move on to other stories until something else of interest comes up.

Trump campaigning might've held the ratings in 2016, and might still draw some now, but it's a show we've all seen before. The man's a one trick pony, so even as president there's only so much invective he can scream into the void before we all turn our backs and lock our gazes in enraptured wonderment on the next big political star. Which is probably Beto O'Rourke. Maybe Cory Booker.

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https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/23/politics/donald-trump-proof-unknown-middle-easterners-migrant-caravan/index.html

As he openly comments on Twitter about sending the military down the border, Trump has admitted he has no evidence of terrorists or criminals in the caravan heading for the border. He openly says in this Q and A that there could be, that it's a hunch, etc.

Because hunches are what policy should be based on. But then again, possibility of bad behavior, rather than proof, is the basis of a lot of cornerstone GOP policies like gutting welfare, overpolicing, and voter ID laws.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/23/politics/andrew-gillum-texts-hamilton-corruption-investigation/index.html

The Florida Governor race is a damned joke. What's the topic of controversy?

...whether the Democratic candidate lied about the source of a ticket to Hamilton. Evidence has found he received it from an undercover FBI agent. He says his brother got it for him, and that he was under the impression that his brother had in fact arranged it with a friend.

The GOP is seizing on this as evidence as enormous corruption on par with all the shit Trump and co. are doing. What a joke.

https://www.coloradoindependent.com/2018/10/23/colorado-early-voting-returns-2018/

Republicans are currently leading ballot returns in Colorado. Since the whole state is based on mail-in ballots, there is concern. On the other hand, far fewer people have voted than at the same point in 2016. With two weeks to go, a lot can change.

Probably the most epic election ad ever.

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https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/25/politics/bombs-suspicious-packages-what-we-know/index.html

Someone has been mailing pipe bombs to prominent Trump critics including Gorge Soros, Barack Obama, the Clintons, Eric Holder, Maxine Waters, Joe Biden, Robert De Niro, and John Brennan/CNN. The packages list the office of Florida Democratic Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz as their return address. Fortunately nobody has been hurt thus far but officials warn there may be more devices out there. Depending on who you ask this is either proof the president's rhetoric has gone too far, or a false flag operation launched by the Democrats and the violent left wing mob. I'll let you make that call.

 

In lighter news: Trump's moving the goalposts on paying money to charity if Elizabeth Warren proved she had Native American ancestry makes his attempted lawsuit against Bill Maher doubly hilarious.

 

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https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/25/politics/false-flag-theory-mail-bombs-cnn-democrats/index.html

Meanwhile, Rush Limbaugh and co. are doing what a lot of conservative pundits do: banking on "maybe" instead of actual evidence.

They're saying this could be a false flag by Democratic operatives to make it seem the right and left are equally violent (the conservative pundits' constructed reality is only the left is violent, of course).

They're citing things like Trump drawing larger crowds than Obama and higher Republican early voting rates as evidence Democrats are scared and would turn towards shit like this to try and stir up turnout.

Limbaugh's statement is particularly amusing because he repeats the same bullshit, debunked lie that Democrats abuse early voting to commit widespread fraud by having undocumented people and dead people vote.

I ask this question of Limbaugh and all who think voter fraud is a serious, statistically significant issue: if Democrats are so damned awesome at fraud, how come they lose so badly? The red wave of 2010, when Republicans came into power and could put in all these ostensibly "anti-fraud" measures, happened in an environment when Democrats had all the cards. As mass fraudsters, they should have been able to prevent that. Vote rigging is easy; we see it all across the world. So why didn't they?

Because it's bullshit, that's why.

Also, cherry on top here. You know who else passed technically not discriminatory laws and said it was all in the name of preventing fraud?

The Jim Crow South. Good day.

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I think it's pretty telling that they want to close down the border based on the possibility that it could enable terrorism, but when actual, honest to god terrorism happens within their own borders they're this quick to brush it off simply because it's not directed at their own party. What a fucking load of shit.

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4 hours ago, Blacklightning said:

I think it's pretty telling that they want to close down the border based on the possibility that it could enable terrorism, but when actual, honest to god terrorism happens within their own borders they're this quick to brush it off simply because it's not directed at their own party. What a fucking load of shit.

 

Brown

Terrorist

Asylum Seeker

Yes

Yes

Bomber

Unknown

No Comment

Conclusion: Trump is the least racist person you've ever seen.

...

In other news, Justin Trudeau is officially better at being president of the United States than Donald Trump.

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https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/25/politics/house-2018-midterm-election/index.html

Interesting analysis on why a Democratic wave is still possible. Democrats are contesting a record number of seats.

Around 75 Democratic incumbents have no challenger, compared to just 10 Republicans. With so many seats being contested, upsets are possible. Indeed, prior wave elections had a common feature: high competition against the dominant party.

In 2006, 22 Republicans were running unopposed for House seats. The House is very much in play, particularly since the 2006 Democratic majority scored upsets in some red districts.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/25/politics/gingrich-kavanaugh-fight-wapo/index.html

So Gingrich basically confirmed he understands Kavanaugh is a partisan hack. He implied that if the Democrats subpoena Trump's tax returns, the fight will go to the Supreme Court, with the implication Kavanaugh would take revenge.

Because you should totally say holding grudges is an okay thing for judges to do.

 

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Basically, Kavanaugh as an associate SCOTUS justice exists solely to wreak havoc on any Democratic attempts to interfere with Trump's agenda or get to the truth of his taxes.

Guess the next Democrat in the White House will have to expand the court to dilute the conservative influence, then. Some previous presidents, like FDR, have threatened to do just that, but the SCOTUS acquiesced before it could happen. In this day and age, I don't think it would. Gotta implement those term limits at the same time tho...

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I still just don’t get how having a obvious bias and agenda doesn’t get you thrown out of the Supreme Court. Like, yes there’s having personal bias that won’t intefere with your job, but this clearly isn’t the case, and somehow there’s nothing seemingly that can be done or result in consequence in Kavanaugh’s case.

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11 minutes ago, Tornado said:

Did anyone actually expect him to not be a dumb white trash redneck? Owning a rape van and living in Florida practically seem like part of a punchline.

And yet the right still insists that he’s actually a liberal out to make the GOP look bad. Lmao.

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