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Tornado

The General 'Murican Politics Thread

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Update: With 11% of the vote in, Sanders has 46.6% of the vote. Short of some real surprises from other precincts, he has crushed this race, and all outlets are calling it for him.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/davidmack/chris-matthews-bernie-sanders-nazi-germany-france-invasion

MSNBC's Chris Matthews, meanwhile, decided it was intelligent to compare someone who could be the very first Jewish President, whose family were massacred by the Nazis, to the Nazis.

I hope this guy loses his job.

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50 percent in with Nevada. Bernie has 47 percent of the vote to Biden's 19 and Buttigieg's 15.

It's actually possible Buttigieg will come out of this with no delegates, leaving Bernie as the clear frontrunner.

3 hours ago, Conquering Storm’s Servant said:

...how the fuck does anyone let that come out of their mouths?

The media's desperate to destroy Bernie at this point, they've just kind of removed the filter and are letting whatever comes to mind go on air.

They're too dense to realize that giving all the attention to the guy they hate is a great way to get him elected. I guess I can be happy they learned nothing from 2016?

Andrew Yang has become a CNN correspondent, the first thing he did was start lying about how Bernie gets crushed by Trump in all the swing states. From polls I've seen, Bernie beats Trump in all the swing states but Wisconsin. Most Dems do that too, actually.

Pete Buttigieg got up on his pedestal after tonight's caucus to yell about how we need a candidate everyone unites behind, not someone who divides the Party, even though Bernie's the only candidate so far who has support in every state, first or second place.

The Culinary Workers Union, meanwhile, was telling its rank and file that Bernie and Warren's Medicare for All would mean they lose their union health insurance. ... union members overwhelmingly backed them anyway. When you're poor, you know how to budget, and loss aversion fallacies don't work on you, apparently.

MSNBC's election coverage casually implied they'd rather have 4 more years of Trump than have a Bernie Presidency permanently reshape the Democrats into a further left, solidarity-based party.

The louder they yell, the more Sanders supporters go out and vote. The more people who are fairly aloof from politics make a connection, "hey, everyone who is in power doesn't like this guy. He's the guy for me then."

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10 hours ago, Legosi (Tani Coyote) said:

They're too dense to realize that giving all the attention to the guy they hate is a great way to get him elected. I guess I can be happy they learned nothing from 2016?

The important question is whether the DNC has learned anything from 2016.

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I didn't watch tonight's debate, but here are some takeaways (of what I saw):

  1. Sanders is the frontrunner and gets out relatively unscathed.
  2. The moderators are some of the worst in any debate. Not just from the anti-Sanders hostility and losing total control, but the VERY right-wing, anti-progressive framing. Isn't this supposed to be a DEMOCRATIC debate?!
  3. The audience is godawful! Full of rich, bribed-out plants for Bloomberg, they were hostile toward those against Bloomberg. Booing Warren after panning him for telling a former employee to "kill" her baby and after Sanders bashed Bloomberg for having a billionaire-targeted audience.

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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-6879.html

Super Tuesday could actually end this quickly. California has over 400 delegates, and... only Bernie is polling over 15 percent. Warren, Biden and Bloomberg are all bouncing in the 13-15 range. Since the primaries require getting at least 15 percent of the vote to qualify for delegates... it's possible only Bernie will get any. For consideration: there is a little under 4,000 delegates total. Bernie basically wins the race if he gets all of California.

He is also ahead in Texas (Biden second) and Virginia (Bloomberg second), and recently overtook Warren in her home state of Massachusetts.

The other Democrats are terrified, because they know there's a real chance Bernie will just destroy everyone in a week.

On 2/23/2020 at 9:32 AM, Tornado said:

The important question is whether the DNC has learned anything from 2016.

A very good question. Most superdelegates are currently-serving elected officials.

If Bernie rides into the convention with 40%+, it's really down to whether they want to risk being thrown out in a red wave if they alienate a lot of Democratic voters by simply ignoring him.

Quote
  1. The audience is godawful! Full of rich, bribed-out plants for Bloomberg, they were hostile toward those against Bloomberg. Booing Warren after panning him for telling a former employee to "kill" her baby and after Sanders bashed Bloomberg for having a billionaire-targeted audience.

I would need a source for this.

While Bernie circulated a story about high priced tickets for entry, that's manufactured outrage. The bulk of those in attendance are people who work on the campaigns or are prominent local Democrats. The same way it's been for all the other first four primary debates.

Now if you want a real lol about Bloomberg, how about how they are destroying their own volunteer offices and heavily implying in most statements that it's Sanders and Warren:

Notice the fact the glass is on the outside of the window... and how there's a pile of rocks just sitting inside.

Now either somehow this office got broken into and someone stayed there a lengthy amount of time to break the windows, or...

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Forgive me for being an idiot in advance, but I had a thought: If Bloomberg loses to Sanders (more like when), what's stopping him from just saying "screw it, I've got too much money in this" and running as an Independent? Cause he seems like the exact type of person to be a sore loser like that.

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9 hours ago, Harkofthewaa said:

Forgive me for being an idiot in advance, but I had a thought: If Bloomberg loses to Sanders (more like when), what's stopping him from just saying "screw it, I've got too much money in this" and running as an Independent? Cause he seems like the exact type of person to be a sore loser like that.

Because the alternative would be Trump.

So unless that’s what he secretly wants, he would be wise not to do that. We’ve already had a moment in history where this happened with Teddy Roosevelt.

He’d be hard pressed to do that anyway given that he might not get as many voters doing that either. Never mind the two party system we’re in—it’s a pick your poison scenario.

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In light of yesterday's news on Superdelegates, How many Delegated would Sanders need to prevent the DNC from taking nomination away from him?

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On 2/22/2020 at 8:50 PM, Legosi (Tani Coyote) said:

Update: With 11% of the vote in, Sanders has 46.6% of the vote. Short of some real surprises from other precincts, he has crushed this race, and all outlets are calling it for him.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/davidmack/chris-matthews-bernie-sanders-nazi-germany-france-invasion

MSNBC's Chris Matthews, meanwhile, decided it was intelligent to compare someone who could be the very first Jewish President, whose family were massacred by the Nazis, to the Nazis.

I hope this guy loses his job.

 

There ya go.

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21 hours ago, Tornado said:

Lol of course they fucking haven't.

Why is the DNC for gun control so much when they seem to clearly love shooting themselves in the foot? 
 

It’s almost circus levels of hilarity that we’re almost doing the same song and dance as 2016 all over again. Just with arguably, worse candidates. A borderline crazy old man that spouts whatever comes to mind, and relies on Obama nostalgia (which now that I think about it feels like the Dem version of how Trump promised a nostalgic return to the good times), and diet-Trump minus the personality and outrageous shit to laugh at, are somehow gonna be their two options, and they’re gonna alienate so many with those options, and blame everyone around them, when it blows up in their face. It almost feels like they just want another Trump term.

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Hilary really has no place to be talking when she lost against Trump and only got to be the nominee due to the establishment democrats clearly wanting her over Bernie, “first female president” hype, and from what I recall, cheating. It should also be noted that before democrats decided to focus all their energy on defeating Bernie, more energy it seems than they put to trying to defeat trump, he was making a hell of a lot of progress that started to clearly make them nervous. Doesn’t sound like a weak candidate to me. Especially when you’re supposedly needing the entire party to rally up against him 

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Does Biden really have the black vote...? As a PoC myself, I’m seriously baffled on why that’s the case if true. Is it Obama nostalgia? I’ve seen it suggested he’s mainly using southern black voter numbers to make this claim, but I’m not sure if that’s entirely accurate 

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We have about 115 delegates from Super Tuesday to go, and Biden is ahead by 91. He will most likely maintain his lead.

Current polls put Bernie as non-viable in Florida. If that continues, Biden will win 200 delegates from it, and this is basically over.

Now, as for this upcoming Tuesday. I looked at polling averages, which admittedly are flawed since most don't account for this being a two candidate race (lol Tulsi), and split the delegates in each state proportionate to the candidate's share of the vote:

Idaho (20) – No polling. Sanders stomped Clinton here in 2016.

Michigan (125) – 70 Biden, 55 Sanders

Mississippi (36) – 25 Biden, 11 Sanders

Missouri (68) – 43 Biden, 25 Sanders

North Dakota (14) – No polling. Ditto with Idaho.

Washington (89) – 46 Sanders, 43 Biden

Net: 181 for Biden, 137 for Sanders. Even if Bernie sweeps Idaho and North Dakota, he remains behind.

It looks like Biden is on the path to crush Sanders. But a lot can change in a two-candidate race. If you are a Bernie supporter, going out to vote is more important than ever now.

What is most eye-opening about the current polls is Biden's surge in Michigan. It is possible he's just enjoying a boost from every single Democrat coalescing behind him, but if Bernie can't beat Biden in the Rust Belt, I just don't see a path forward.

3 hours ago, KHCast said:

Does Biden really have the black vote...? As a PoC myself, I’m seriously baffled on why that’s the case if true. Is it Obama nostalgia? I’ve seen it suggested he’s mainly using southern black voter numbers to make this claim, but I’m not sure if that’s entirely accurate 

Multiple things. In general, the South is more conservative, so black voters from there will reflect that.

Speaking of the black community as a whole, there has been some research done on the topic. In some cases, it's the influence of the church in many communities that pushes it a little more towards conservative ideology, but the racism of the Republican Party keeps even conservative black people from joining the GOP for the most part.

There are other factors in play as well. What has been found is black voters tend to feel moderates deliver more on their promises than radicals. Clinton signed into law a bill that fell heavily on African Americans, but he also oversaw their greatest period of economic prosperity. Meanwhile, black radicalism in the 1960s paved the way for Nixon's Southern Strategy and the modern American police state that imprisons and murders black people with impunity. In addition, the experience with racism seems to have overall lowered black voters' expectations, so going with a moderate means the least chance of being disappointed.

But yes, last I saw, about 40% of black voters identify as conservative and 40% as moderate. Social pressure goes a long way to maintain cohesion with the Democratic Party, but there are strategic reasons to as well.

Of course, then you have black leaders like Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton, who are tied very heavily to moderate Democratic politicians. But it's better to look at black leaders in the aggregate... the issue they tend to rank most highly is not police brutality, but affirmative action in college. They, the relatively well to do black Americans, are more interested in putting their kids in college than keeping everyone else's kids out of jail.

There is a reason Black Lives Matter groups tend to politely tell traditional black leaders to piss off. They recognize the affiliation with the neoliberal leadership of the Democratic Party only benefits wealthier black people.

This is the same pattern we have seen for hundreds of years. A colonized population's leaders are just agents of the colonizer. The Palestinian leaders live in plush mansions while their people can barely fit in their housing, if their house isn't demolished by Israeli settlements. Is it any surprise that black leaders tend to celebrate moderates like Biden as helping to fend off the evils of Republican racism, even though Biden's weak commitment to ending the Drug War or overdue investment in black communities means oppression will continue with little change?

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Progressive black groups do tend to be at odds I notice with popularly promoted black leaders the DNC tries to push on them. It’s kinda similar to when Trump and the GOP tried to push Ben Carson and any republican black politician in order to convey the idea that black groups loved him and his policies. 
 

What’s even more telling here is that damn near every other minority group seems to poll wise prefer Bernie over Biden.

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On 3/7/2020 at 12:34 AM, KHCast said:

Progressive black groups do tend to be at odds I notice with popularly promoted black leaders the DNC tries to push on them. It’s kinda similar to when Trump and the GOP tried to push Ben Carson and any republican black politician in order to convey the idea that black groups loved him and his policies. 
 

What’s even more telling here is that damn near every other minority group seems to poll wise prefer Bernie over Biden.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/08/politics/jesse-jackson-bernie-sanders-endorsement/index.html

Even that might change soon. While Biden was busy gobbling up every nomination he could find, he didn't invite Jesse Jackson to the party. Jackson has endorsed Bernie Sanders.

Considering he towed the establishment line and backed Clinton in 2016, this is actually a potentially huge development. As one of the more prominent black leaders, and given what we know about elite cues in voting behavior, Jackson going against the grain could have a serious impact.

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On 3/6/2020 at 10:36 PM, Legosi (Tani Coyote) said:

but if Bernie can't beat Biden in the Rust Belt, I just don't see a path forward.

 


If more stuff like this happens, I don’t personally see Biden having an easy time winning the rust belt.

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