The General 'Murican Politics Thread

[Tani Coyote]

Hey Pence, Mikey, now would be a great time to invoke your right to declare Trump unfit for office. Granted, he has to get half the Cabinet to agree to it, but it's an option if this looks to be going ahead.

The worst part is Trump is free to authorize the military against North Korea at any time, regardless of whether or not Congress signs off on it. All he has to do is give them some advance notice, which is what this meeting very well qualifies as.

I can see Trump dismissing a bunch of Cabinet members to try and prevent being unseated by Pence, but that just makes him look even more like a wannabe caudillo. Plus, in theory, if there's no Cabinet, Pence alone can oust Trump.

Unfortunately, it's just a temporary measure. Trump could literally troll Pence for the next 4 years by continuing to spam appeals, and Congress would have to keep voting to keep him out. Granted, if they can muster the two-thirds necessary to put Pence in office, they may as well just go through with impeachment.

[Patticus]

I doubt that impeachment will come up as a serious talking point among Republican rank & file politicians or their leadership, until any of these criteria are wholly fulfilled (some will likely link together):

• Trump's poll numbers among registered Republicans and Trump voters alike plummets (it currently sits around 85-95%), and it's not just a blip he can fix with a couple of rallies and a military strike. If his popularity with his own base tanks, Trump becomes a direct liability to the wider GOP's chances in races up and down the ballot nationwide - McConnell and co would sooner ditch Trump entirely than risk their own careers and electoral success.
• The FBI-lead FBI/CIA investigation into the Trump campaign and transition's collusion with Russia turns up damning evidence against Trump himself, and Comey decides to indict him.
• The child rape case against Trump, which was dropped last year after a barrage of death threats against the plaintiff's lawyer (probably from Trump supporters) lead to the case's withdrawal, restarts and goes to trial, with all the attendant drama, explosive testimony, lurid headlines et al.
• The Democrats win back the House in 2018; their threshold for impeachment will be much lower than that of the GOP.

[CrownSlayers Shadow]

On April 25, 2017 at 1:22 AM, Volphied said:

I think you're severely underestimating North Korea's military capabilities. Now, don't get me wrong, no one expects North Korea to be able to win a war against the US. On the other hand, that's precisely what makes them a dangerous foe, and why there's zero chance for such a war doing ANY potential good or even somehow making Trump seem "presidential" :

I'm not really. We steamrolled Iraq and they had far better technology and tactics by comparison--only thing they lacked compared to North Korea was nuclear weapons, which is ironically one of two things that made us less likely to invade North Korea.

I say that it might actually bolster Trump's approval because given how much of a pariah the DPRK is to most of the world, I can see some favorable opinions coming his way for a brief moment, maybe even longer domestically speaking if he actually succeedsat toppling them. That is, provided that China doesn't intervene--which is the second reason why we haven't, and shouldn't strike first--and there's obviously no doubt that China wouldn't desire that given they're already complaining about THAAD being deployed.

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Who's problem will be the millions of refugees? Who's problem will be a devastated country with no economy?

Either China or South Korea, maybe both at the same time. Not saying that's a good idea, but that's just a consequence if conflict erupts.

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27 years later, the eastern parts of Germany still lag behind the rest. And East Germany was one of the most developed soviet countries. The differences between North and South Korea are staggering. There is no way that the South will be able handle it, especially not with Seoul being a smouldering ruin, and the economy of the entire East Asian region in chaos due to the sudden war.

 

Provided North Korea's missiles actually manage to launch, and on the chance they do, avoid getting shot down the moment it passes into South Korea. Otherwise, while understandable in caution, I'd say that's overestimating North Korea war capabilities--unless the South Korean military gets lac (which isn't unheard of, but I can't remember the specific moment when they did prior to Kim Jung-Il's death).

[Tornado]

The funny thing about that scary, possibly WWII-era artillery is that even if the spotter was really good/lucky and managed to hit a skyscraper full of nuns and orphans in Seoul on the first shot... the location wouldn't be a secret anymore.

[Tani Coyote]

March: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/03/22/how-many-trump-voters-really-regret-their-votes/?utm_term=.f85b33ecc900

April: https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/24/poll-only-2-percent-of-trump-supporters-regret-voting-for-him/22053057/

Basically, Trump went from 3% regretting their vote to only 2% regretting their vote, but the number of Trump voters who stand by their vote fully has sunk to 96%.

This sounds disheartening, but let's think about this. If 3% of Trump voters didn't turn out in Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, and Michigan in 2016, he would have lost all 4 states and Clinton would have crushed him.

He's only 3 months in, and it's quite possible for more and more people to regret their vote (and for opposition to rise). Odds are most will just not vote for him again or not turn out as opposed to defection, but it gives hope he's going to be a one term President (with the likely scenario that the investigations will go nowhere).

Provided the next Democratic nominee can secure Clinton's voters, and turn out the Obama coalition on top of it, Trump's a done deal. However, we should not convince ourselves the result is a given; this can easily cost a close race due to lack of turnout or protest votes for third parties (especially in an era where the GOP has more ability to attempt voter suppression).

[KHCast]

Everything this guy does and still has most of his supporters firmly by his side. I mean honestly that just gives me a bleak view on a lot of people in this country and how unempathetic and understanding, or just not caring they are regarding a lot of the issues this man creates

[Patticus]

5 hours ago, Tornado said:

The funny thing about that scary, possibly WWII-era artillery is that even if the spotter was really good/lucky and managed to hit a skyscraper full of nuns and orphans in Seoul on the first shot... the location wouldn't be a secret anymore.

Perhaps not, but the fact remains that NK has been building up this line of presumably well camouflaged and bunker-protected artillery, which the US and SK would never be able to fully eradicate in the opening moments of a resumption of open hostilities. North Korea's missile batteries would be much more capable of hitting Seoul than its artillery though, which would probably allow the artillery to focus on hitting SK military targets nearer the DMZ first as a result. Then there's that pesky million man army of fanatics at Kim Jong-Un's disposal - that alone will not be easily dealt with, and will require significant force multipliers to bring to heel.

I would expect Seoul to fall to sustained artillery and missile strikes (if that missile defense system doesn't wipe out those missiles) within a matter of hours, no matter how good the west's opening moves are. The terms 'acceptable casualties' and 'collateral damage' will be all the rage.

As for the millions of refugees, no way China wants that shit piling up on its doorstep - it has a billion poverty-stricken citizens already, it doesn't need any more, particularly if that means the US might build bases further up the peninsular. South Korea just isn't economically prepared to deal with it either - it's an entire failed state (to be). It would be by far the biggest humanitarian clusterfuck on the planet, and that's saying something given the state of the Middle East and parts of Africa.

[Tornado]

1 hour ago, Patticus said:

I would expect Seoul to fall to sustained artillery and missile strikes (if that missile defense system doesn't wipe out those missiles) within a matter of hours, no matter how good the west's opening moves are. The terms 'acceptable casualties' and 'collateral damage' will be all the rage.

The fact of the matter is that North Korea would not be able to have hours of sustained artillery or missile strikes to try and bring Seoul to its knees. Other than China bringing the full brunt of its air force to bear in advance, there is not a situation where North Korea starts shelling or launching missiles at South Korea (particularly a South Korea already on a heightened military alert even compared to usual) that doesn't end in North Korea's ability to do so being negated within minutes of an individual gun or missile firing.

That isn't to say that there wouldn't be loss of life in South Korean cities, but you can't have sustained artillery or missile launches when you have no way whatsoever of really defending where you are doing it from once you start.

[Tani Coyote]

https://www.commondreams.org/newswire/2017/04/26/medicare-all-bill-reaches-record-breaking-104-co-sponsors-congress

The Medicare for All Bill in the House now has 104 co-sponsors, setting a record for such a bill. Furthermore, that's a majority of the 193 House Democrats. Sanders has yet to introduce a Senate Medicare for All bill, but hopefully this will serve to give him confidence.

The bill has to pass a committee before being voted on, and it's likely it will die in committee given the partisan nature of things. But there's a message looming over Trump and Ryan's little alliance: more Americans want universal healthcare than are opposed, and with such feel good language as Medicare for All, this can become something that could score the Democrats some ground in future races.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/676

Note some of the language. It would increase taxes on the highest bracket by 5% to help pay for the vastly-expanded coverage. It would also reevaluate the Indian and VA healthcare programs to consider merging them into the newly expanded Medicare program, which could cut waste. As mentioned, it's believed the slashed bureaucracy would create $500 billion in savings.

Also of note is the insurance provision. The government would cover most healthcare procedures. Going further, the bill bans private insurance from offering whatever the government covers. That public option doesn't seem like such a radical idea now, does it?

It's a good thing the GOP are smug in their gerrymandering of the House, because otherwise they'd be shitting their pants. Ryancare is building opposition in the streets and in Congress, and this might just be the issue to help overcome the barriers the GOP has set up to a Democratic majority.

[KHCast]

I want to make a joke, but this is just getting a bit sad.

[Nepenthe]

Well, Trump. You can fucking quit at any time.

[KHCast]

He could fucking hate the job and express his desire to quit, but we all know his ego won't let him 

[-Robin-]

He could quit at any time, but

a) The alt-right would declare it a betrayal, and would harass him and his for years to come.

b ) the standard conservative base would consider it cowardice and an affront to their beliefs that he'd call it quits after they voted for him, and would get pissed off further and sink ever deeper into that nationalistic, "Trust no one but yourself" hole

c) Those who were against him from the start would be vindicated, and still be against him regardless.

 

None of that helps his brand if he goes back to real estate early. Gotta think long term.

[SenEDDtor Missile]

11 minutes ago, -Robin- said:

He could quit at any time, but

a) The alt-right would declare it a betrayal, and would harass him and his for years to come.

b ) the standard conservative base would consider it cowardice and an affront to their beliefs that he'd call it quits after they voted for him, and would get pissed off further and sink ever deeper into that nationalistic, "Trust no one but yourself" hole

c) Those who were against him from the start would be vindicated, and still be against him regardless.

 

None of that helps his brand if he goes back to real estate early. Gotta think long term.

He thinks long term?

[KHCast]

Even if he sticks through, I can't imagine his business will be booming if he keeps loosing support and popularity 

[-Robin-]

11 minutes ago, SenEDtor Missile said:

He thinks long term?

For his brand name and business? Yes.

 

5 minutes ago, KHCast said:

Even if he sticks through, I can't imagine his business will be booming if he keeps loosing support and popularity 

Losing 1 group of people is better than losing 3. Remember that people still think he's a leader chosen by a higher power to lead the world. If he folds early, will they sooner blame this higher power for not being omnipotent and protecting them, or blame Trump for defying the higher power's will?

[Tani Coyote]

And here we are. The legendary 100th day of the Trump Presidency. Unsurprisingly, he's trying to pass it off as a great start.

He has even backpedaled on NAFTA, saying he wants to "renegotiate" it rather than pull out because it would be too disruptive to fully pull out.

Basically, he's even more of a liar than we thought. He's harped on about how awful the trade system is for decades, and yet here he is, kowtowing to it.

Just a small spot of good news. He did increase protections for whistleblowers at the VA. Lord knows the VA needs more whistleblowers. Of course, we all know the real motive: using veterans' suffering as evidence of how terrible the government is at anything it does (except invade other nations, of course).

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/331108-trumps-hands-are-tied-on-9th-circuit

Meanwhile, he and the GOP are all currently mulling over breakup of the 9th circuit court. Their issue? That it's too liberal and represents too many people.

Which is hilarious, given this supposedly liberal court just gutted protections for women workers by making it legal to discriminate in pay based on past salaries. Let that sink in for a moment. Their argument is it's okay to pay women less for a position if the position was paid low in the past. This is basically like the grandfather clauses, which gave the vote to anyone who could vote before the Civil War, which of course was only white people.

Unfortunately, the Senate would need to approve a court reorganization, and unless they get rid of the legislative filibuster, that won't pass without the Democrats' consent.

The GOP had every reason to use the nuclear option for the court appointment, so as to keep the Supreme Court leaning conservative. The legislative filibuster is a whole other ballgame, given the chance the Democrats could retake the chamber at some point and punish the Republicans with things such as drastic funding cuts to Republican states. Appointments run in the background once they're said and done, but the annual budgeting process means it is very lucrative to have a negotiating position while in the minority.

21 hours ago, -Robin- said:

He could quit at any time, but

a) The alt-right would declare it a betrayal, and would harass him and his for years to come.

Honestly, there's reason to feel he's betrayed the alt right already. The Trumpgrets crowd aren't just moderates; there are a lot of vile, despicable people who dislike him for not being Hitler 2.0. Or for simple things like forgetting all about "Crooked Hillary" now that he's in office. Throwing Clinton in jail was the new throw the Wall Street bankers in jail (except Clinton has questionably legal activity, whereas the real estate bubble was mostly legal (honorable exception to credit agencies taking bribes to upgrade scores) but scummy).

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b ) the standard conservative base would consider it cowardice and an affront to their beliefs that he'd call it quits after they voted for him, and would get pissed off further and sink ever deeper into that nationalistic, "Trust no one but yourself" hole

I'd think they'd be even happier. They still get Pence, who is a more traditional flavor of conservative as opposed to Trump's populist type. Which makes him worse for those on the left, but for those on the right, he could be seen as an improvement.

 

[Patticus]

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Trump blames constitution for chaos of his first 100 days
The president is learning the limits of power

In an interview with Fox News to mark the 100-day mark, he declared himself “disappointed” with congressional Republicans, despite his many “great relationships” with them.

***

He blamed the constitutional checks and balances built in to US governance. “It’s a very rough system,” he said. “It’s an archaic system … It’s really a bad thing for the country.”

He has failed to get any of his priorities turned into legislation in the face of party disunity, and his attempt to rule by executive order has been largely hollow. His decrees have been either meaningless, like his one-page, detail-free tax reform plan, or have been blocked by the courts, such as his travel ban for Muslim countries and refugees.

Trump’s approval ratings have remained mired at historic lows for a presidency in what is supposed to be a honeymoon period, hovering around – and frequently below – the 40% mark, well below his recent predecessors at this stage in their presidencies.

But his core supporters have remained faithful, choosing to believe that the mainstream media are purveyors of fake news, rather than accept that the Trump presidency has not been the unrivalled success the president has claimed. They have also accommodated Trump’s affinity for Vladimir Putin. The percentage of Republicans who see Russia as an unfriendly state has fallen from 82% in 2014 to 41% now, according to a CNN/ORC poll.

***

The gap between the extreme bravado of Trump’s claims and the daily realities of governing has deepened public cynicism. In a new Gallup poll, just 36% declared him honest and trustworthy, down from 42% in early February. His general approval rating stood at 40%.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/29/trump-blames-constitution-for-first-100-days-chaos-presidency

I've always tended towards advocating for parliamentary systems over the American model of government. However, under those models, Trump would probably have a great deal more power than he does as President of the United States. The functions of Congress and the Senate that can ensure that a President in power does not necessarily have power (particularly if the President is of the other party), essentially the checks and balances, appear to be working as well as they ever have (in their own weird way), even though all three branches of government are held at present by the same party. It's just incredible.

Trump is a fantastic salesman for the American political system.

[SenEDDtor Missile]

5 minutes ago, Patticus said:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/29/trump-blames-constitution-for-first-100-days-chaos-presidency

I've always tended towards advocating for parliamentary systems over the American model of government. However, under those models, Trump would probably have a great deal more power than he does as President of the United States. The functions of Congress and the Senate that can ensure that a President in power does not necessarily have power (particularly if the President is of the other party), essentially the checks and balances, appear to be working as well as they ever have (in their own weird way), even though all three branches of government are held at present by the same party. It's just incredible.

Trump is a fantastic salesman for the American political system.

Glad to know a good portion of Republicans are nothing but traitors to the USA and the ideals it should have represented.

[CrownSlayers Shadow]

14 minutes ago, Patticus said:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/29/trump-blames-constitution-for-first-100-days-chaos-presidency

I've always tended towards advocating for parliamentary systems over the American model of government. However, under those models, Trump would probably have a great deal more power than he does as President of the United States. The functions of Congress and the Senate that can ensure that a President in power does not necessarily have power (particularly if the President is of the other party), essentially the checks and balances, appear to be working as well as they ever have (in their own weird way), even though all three branches of government are held at present by the same party. It's just incredible.

Trump is a fantastic salesman for the American political system.

And considering the drama that's been going on in Europe, what with Brexit and all...really glad the American Forefathers designed the government with checks and balances. Lord knows what could happen if the wrong person got into office and really mucked up all the work that we made progress in.

[Nepenthe]

Hey guize we got a budget passed through the end of September, which includes no funding whatsoever for the border wall, increased funding for the National Institute of Health, and an indefinite payment extension for the ACA.

Look at all of this winning. Are you tired of winning yet?

[Indigo Rush]

37 minutes ago, Nepenthe said:

Hey guize we got a budget passed through the end of September, which includes no funding whatsoever for the border wall, increased funding for the National Institute of Health, and an indefinite payment extension for the ACA.

Look at all of this winning. Are you tired of winning yet?

Please stop! I can't handle all this winning!

[SenEDDtor Missile]

46 minutes ago, Nepenthe said:

Hey guize we got a budget passed through the end of September, which includes no funding whatsoever for the border wall, increased funding for the National Institute of Health, and an indefinite payment extension for the ACA.

Look at all of this winning. Are you tired of winning yet?

 

9 minutes ago, Indigo Rush said:

Please stop! I can't handle all this winning!

Is this sarcasm or something?

[KHCast]

1 minute ago, SenEDDtor Missile said:

 

Is this sarcasm or something?

You're...being sarcastic right? You should know these two by now lol

[SenEDDtor Missile]

Just now, KHCast said:

You're...being sarcastic right? You should know these two by now lol

No I'm just really bad at figuring at sarcasm through text.