The General 'Murican Politics Thread

[KHCast]

All the while touting America as this land of freedom and happiness for anyone and everyone 

[SenEDDtor Missile]

1 hour ago, Patticus said:

I have no idea what it is that makes conservatives so unutterably callous, all too happy to persecute entire groups of people, but it's really bloody annoying. Can we stop it with the archaic mindsets and move the fuck into this century please?

IIRC from something I read somewhere, conservatives tend to think of everything in terms of a hierarchy. Rich > poor, white > black, men > women, straight > gays, etc. it was some kind of mindset that they create for something. I can't remember what exactly the post said and where i found it.

[Tani Coyote]

http://www.politicususa.com/2017/05/04/trump-celebrating-senate-republicans-killed-house-health-care-bill.html

Reeeeejected!

The Senate is working out their own bill with a 12-member committee. They've outright said they won't use the House bill as a starting point, though they will take its provisions into consideration.

The huge gutpunch to the House GOP and Trump here is the Senate has no timeline. There will be no desired rapid repeal and replace, thus further causing Trump's political capital to evaporate.

Essentially, the Senate GOP know that the House bill is garbage and are going to create their own. Then, the House and Senate GOP bills will be reconciled with a joint committee and then go to an up or down vote in both chambers.

It is expected that any compromise bill will fail in this, given the Senate GOP is far more liberal on healthcare than the House GOP.

Meanwhile... during his little victory parade, Trump praised how awesome the Australian healthcare system is compared to ours. Bernie Sanders had a field day with it. It remains to be seen how much Sanders was joking when he said Democrats would invoke Trump's name to support Medicare for All.

http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/federal-judge-orders-georgia-reopen-voter-registration-ahead-6th-district-runoff/ZeJBoBDNllqHU7JGtnUzcN/

Meanwhile, in Georgia, a federal judge has ordered voter registration be reopened until May 21st. This has enormous implications given the 6th House district (and possibly the Georgia state Senate seat overlapping with it) is likely to be decided by thin margins.

Ossoff's odds of winning in June just ticked up, given voter registration deadlines trend towards favoring Republicans.

[Patticus]

I thought that, thanks to the Reconciliation rule, the Senate needed to act before the end of May, or it would need more than a simple 51 vote majority to pass the thing?

[Tani Coyote]

37 minutes ago, Patticus said:

I thought that, thanks to the Reconciliation rule, the Senate needed to act before the end of May, or it would need more than a simple 51 vote majority to pass the thing?

That was only if the Senate chose to vote on the House bill with or without amendments.

They've decided they're not going to vote on it at all and just make their own.

Basically, GOP Senators and House members will each come up with their own bill, the compromise bill they come up with will fail in one House, and then all involved can pat themselves on the back, saying that they tried, but it was the other Republicans who sabotaged them. They all get to save face, claim a participation trophy, Obamacare stays as is, and the only person who really loses is one Donald John Trump.

[Patticus]

2 hours ago, Lord Liquir (Ogilvie) said:

That was only if the Senate chose to vote on the House bill with or without amendments.

They've decided they're not going to vote on it at all and just make their own.

Basically, GOP Senators and House members will each come up with their own bill, the compromise bill they come up with will fail in one House, and then all involved can pat themselves on the back, saying that they tried, but it was the other Republicans who sabotaged them. They all get to save face, claim a participation trophy, Obamacare stays as is, and the only person who really loses is one Donald John Trump.

So, if I'm understanding you correctly: Both houses put forward bills, but as neither bill has a hope in hell of surviving the other chamber, nothing actually happens beyond no small amount of wrangling, a couple of votes, some cheery pats on the back, and the acquisition of the message of "Hey, we did our part" to take home to constituencies nationwide.

Meanwhile, the Democrats get plenty of ammunition to open lines of attack against more or less everyone on the Republican side on the aisle, depending on the content of the Senate's bill.

What about Trump? He was leaning pretty hard into getting the House's AHCA bill passed. Isn't he going to go nuts when someone explains to him exactly what's going on?

 

I loved Trump's praise for the Australian healthcare system, by the way. I can see that popping up in campaign ads for years to come, to paint him as a closet socialist, a liar, a hypocrite, etc. Hell, the Democrats could even use it to try to garner support for their Medicare-for-all plans -- there's one in the House with, what, over 100 co-sponsors now? -- in conservative areas.

[Tani Coyote]

https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2017

If you want a chance to get involved, there are dozens of special elections being held throughout the year for state legislative seats. This month, Oklahoma, New Hampshire, New York, and South Carolina are filling some seats. Always worth a look to see if you're in that district, or know someone who is.

To date, 18 races have been held, with only 1 seat flipping from Democrat to Republican; this is because the Democrat holding it retired and the Democrats didn't nominate a replacement.

The most interesting race is likely to be the Washington State Senate race on November 7, as it could potentially flip the Senate to Democratic control and give the Democrats unified control over the state.

15 hours ago, Patticus said:

So, if I'm understanding you correctly: Both houses put forward bills, but as neither bill has a hope in hell of surviving the other chamber, nothing actually happens beyond no small amount of wrangling, a couple of votes, some cheery pats on the back, and the acquisition of the message of "Hey, we did our part" to take home to constituencies nationwide.

Essentially yes. Once the Senate has their bill, they'll meet with a House delegation, come up with a compromise bill to pass on to both chambers, and it will in all likelihood fall flat on its face in one chamber (or perhaps humiliatingly in both). The Senate wants the Medicaid expansion and protection for pre-existing conditions, while the House wants to gut them. They might be able to reach a compromise on cutting taxes and vastly expanded high risk pool funding, but that Medicaid expansion is liable to be what kills it in either chamber. Several GOP Governors like Kasich have made their views known on their interest in expanding Medicaid (insult to injury: Kasich regularly invokes his faith as reason for going against the grain on GOP economic policies), so I don't see moderates like Murkowski budging on the issue.

15 hours ago, Patticus said:

Meanwhile, the Democrats get plenty of ammunition to open lines of attack against more or less everyone on the Republican side on the aisle, depending on the content of the Senate's bill.

http://cookpolitical.com/story/10342

We're already seeing the fallout, with 20 House seats having been shifted to less safe for Republicans. The Democrats are currently being flooded with doctors eager to run for office on healthcare issues.

It is mentioned, however, that Democrats passed the ACA 8 months before the 2010 midterms, which means Republicans have an opportunity to bury their healthcare blunder under newer events before 2018 rolls around. On the flipside, the Senate's lack of a timetable could draw this out for some time, which would erase this advantage.

15 hours ago, Patticus said:

What about Trump? He was leaning pretty hard into getting the House's AHCA bill passed. Isn't he going to go nuts when someone explains to him exactly what's going on?

Oh, it's a given he'll freak out and start attacking his intraparty opponents, but he's clearly unaware that his first year is probably his strongest to pass what he needs done. A lot of Senators will be in office long after he is gone, so he doesn't do himself any favors by screaming at them.

As the Cook report mentions, though, calling this bill Trumpcare might actually backfire on Democrats. The AHCA had half the approval that Trump does, and if Trump voters associate it with him, they might turn out in support of the bill and Trump and by proxy, the GOP.

15 hours ago, Patticus said:

I loved Trump's praise for the Australian healthcare system, by the way. I can see that popping up in campaign ads for years to come, to paint him as a closet socialist, a liar, a hypocrite, etc. Hell, the Democrats could even use it to try to garner support for their Medicare-for-all plans -- there's one in the House with, what, over 100 co-sponsors now? -- in conservative areas.

I'm most hopeful they will. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Trump would swing in favor of single payer with a Democratic majority, given he just wants to look good more than anything.

The Medicare for All bill is currently up to 108 cosponsors, so I'm hoping that reaction to the AHCA will drive it up even further.

[Tani Coyote]

http://www.pressherald.com/2017/04/11/sen-collins-says-she-may-run-for-maine-governor-in-2018/

Ohhh... I'm surprised this wasn't top news last month.

Susan Collins, the moderate GOP Senator from Maine, is debating a bid for Governor of Maine in 2018, feeling she could do more for her constituents that way. She is deeply popular among the state's people, so she'd have good odds.

If Collins won, she would need to resign her Senate seat, and an appointment would be made by the Governor. Maine's laws require Senators serve until the next general election, so that would be 2020.

However, if Collins did something strange and resigned prior to November 2018, her replacement would face a special election that same November, and this would coincide with another Senate election for Angus King's seat.

Either way, the removal of a popular Republican incumbent dramatically increases the odds of Democrats taking the seat in 2020, if not 2018.

[Tani Coyote]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/campaign-cash-targets-republican-health-care-repeal-votes_us_590b9a97e4b0d5d9049ad1fc

Oh this... this is blowing up in the GOP's face sooner than I anticipated. It's a good article, highlighting absurd amounts of money being raised to throw vulnerable Republicans out of office, as well as previous trends that could offset gerrymandering. A big one is the fact the ACA's enrollment rules cause premium hikes to be felt in November, thus no doubt pushing swing voters against the Democrats. Now that the Democrats are no longer in power, those premium hikes will be felt by the GOP and possibly push swing districts over the edge into Democratic hands.

Also a bit of trivia: while the GOP decry the Democrats' singing after the AHCA passed, it turns out the GOP did the same thing to the Democrats when the ACA passed many years ago.

It is mentioned that wealthy backers will no doubt balance out the financials, but the amount of energy from grassroots opponents means the GOP's House majority - even its Senate majority - are not as safe as initially thought.

The GOP Congressmen asked why they'd vote on such an unpopular bill basically confirm that it was a participation trophy; they didn't want to go back to constituents empty handed, as they would if the bill didn't pass like the first time.

Meanwhile, California is working to implement a single payer system roughly similar to the Medicare for All House Bill. The main issue: how to pay for it. Democratic Governor Jerry Brown sounds likely to veto it if the issue isn't resolved.

[Nepenthe]

Not gonna lie- I donated that day to a Democratic SuperPac that's gonna dole out all of the funds to Democratic candidates in competitive races once we roll around to them. Once I get some more disposable income, I'm donating more.

I want the Republican party to burn. 8D

[CrownSlayers Shadow]

So pissing people off in a democracy doesn't work all that well...who knew?

[Tani Coyote]

21 hours ago, Conquering Storm's Servant said:

So pissing people off in a democracy doesn't work all that well...who knew?

They probably assumed that if they continue to crush the poor, the poor will have too little money to spare to effectively mobilize. After all, it works with voter suppression tactics by making voting inconvenient.

Unfortunately for them, very few people are literally clinging to their last dollar, and it takes a brief analysis to realize that if this situation isn't arrested quickly, it will only get worse.

[Patticus]

FBI Chief Comey fired! FBI Russia investigation to follow?

 

 

So, Trump's Attorney General, who is a Trump supporter, and his presumed Trump-supporting deputy, have decided to recommend the firing of the man in charge of the FBI investigation into Trump, who will now be able to presumably appoint a successor who will shut that investigation down.

Why is this being allowed to happen? I hope the next Democratic administration digs into this.

[Chili Dawg]

I can only imagine that this is happening because Comey got the goods in the whole Russia scandal. And it seems Trump knows that if Comey is left to finish the job, he gets fucked, and without Comey even taking tic tacs first. 

If Comey has the goods, the truth is out there somewhere. The question is who can get it at this point. This is Nixon on crack.

[Tani Coyote]

At this point we need 1. a Congressional investigation, which is unlikely until the GOP loses a chamber, or 2. a Supreme Court injunction that the investigation be reopened, the documents be transferred to a relevant body, etc.

It really is Nixon on crack. It will likely come down to the Supreme Court's perspective on the matter, yet another body that Trump and the GOP have power over appointing. We just have to hope none of the justices retire or pass away before a chance for an injunction comes along.

Meanwhile, resistance begins at the local and state levels. Here's a table of every legislative race at the state/federal levels for the next two months:

Hopefully Trump appoints another House rep to the FBI, thus opening another possible seat to take.

[CrownSlayers Shadow]

2 hours ago, Lord Liquir (Ogilvie) said:

They probably assumed that if they continue to crush the poor, the poor will have too little money to spare to effectively mobilize. After all, it works with voter suppression tactics by making voting inconvenient.

Unfortunately for them, very few people are literally clinging to their last dollar, and it takes a brief analysis to realize that if this situation isn't arrested quickly, it will only get worse.

Someone should remind them that this is the United States of America, not the fucking Republic of Zaire.

[PSI Wind]

Hahaha how cute. You think we'll have a Democrat President, or even President at all after this is all over? We're Russia's fucking BITCH now. If we take back the House SOMETHING catastrophic will happen.

[Kevin]

It gets better folks. A grand jury just issued subpoenas associates of former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn. 

Of all the days, Late Night with Stephen Colbert has a Daily Show Reunion, this happens! I can't wait to see how they address this tonight!

[CrownSlayers Shadow]

1 hour ago, PSI Wind said:

Hahaha how cute. You think we'll have a Democrat President, or even President at all after this is all over?

It's a strong maybe. Although I'm fairly certain we'll still have a president when this is over.

1 hour ago, PSI Wind said:

We're Russia's fucking BITCH now. If we take back the House SOMETHING catastrophic will happen.

I doubt it. Even considering the idea of Russia tampering with shit over here and their considerable military strength, they've still a long ways to go before they can be the major power they once were.

[Tani Coyote]

https://www.ok.gov/elections/support/ok_results_seb.html

And... holy crap.

Steve Barnes, the Democrat, won 48% of the vote, his GOP opponent 50%, in a district that Republicans usually carry by 30-40 points over the Democrats.

Yes, turnout is lower than normal (2400 people versus 7100 in 2014), but... this bodes well for future races. If angry Democrats and their independent allies turn out in droves, they're likely going to flip a ton of seats. This is a "ruby red" district. Imagine what will happen in swing districts? And with cases like this, a swing district can officially be anything where the margin of victory is 30 points or less.

"Why does a state House matter" some ask. Whoever controls state governments greatly influences how effective federal policy is, never mind most states give their legislature some degree of control over redistricting. This is to say nothing of voter suppression tactics, which will vary depending on who is in power.

[Patticus]

Another Ruby Red district, where Republicans usually win by enormous margins, falling to another low single digit win by the Republicans. If this trend holds, if, then perhaps not even extensive gerrymandering will stop next year from becoming the Republican Party's 2010 - you know, an absolute electoral bloodbath. Perhaps the Senate may even be in play in ways that aren't yet foreseeable? I know that the stats posted earlier painted a somewhat grimmer image, of a House that will take at least two electoral cycles' worth of heavy red losses to flip, but at this rate... hell, who even knows what might happen? This far out from last year's election, Trump was an annoying fly buzzing around the big boys of American political conservatism, and now look where we are.

Anyway...

Comey wasn't given any notice of his dismissal by the White House:

Quote

Mr. Comey was addressing a group of F.B.I. employees in Los Angeles when a television in the background flashed the news that he had been fired.

In response, Mr. Comey laughed, saying he thought it was a fairly funny prank.

Then his staff started scurrying around in the background and told Mr. Comey that he should step into a nearby office.

Mr. Comey stopped addressing the group. He proceeded to shake hands with the employees he had been speaking to. Then he stepped into a side office, where he confirmed that he had been fired. At that point, he had not heard from the White House.

Shortly thereafter, a letter from Mr. Trump was delivered to the F.B.I.’s headquarters, just seven blocks from the White House.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/09/us/politics/comey-trump-fbi-live.html?smid=tw-nytpolitics&smtyp=cur&_r=0

Meanwhile...

Quote

Grand jury subpoenas issued in FBI's Russia investigation

Federal prosecutors have issued grand jury subpoenas to associates of former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn seeking business records, as part of the ongoing probe of Russian meddling in last year's election, according to people familiar with the matter. CNN learned of the subpoenas hours before President Donald Trump fired FBI director James Comey.

The subpoenas represent the first sign of a significant escalation of activity in the FBI's broader investigation begun last July into possible ties between Trump campaign associates and Russia.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/09/politics/grand-jury-fbi-russia/index.html

And Trump has hired a law firm to fight suggestions of Russian business ties:

Quote

President Donald Trump has hired a Washington law firm to send a letter to a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee saying he has no connections to Russia, White House press secretary Sean Spicer said Tuesday.

Spicer's revelation was in response to a question from reporters on a briefing about committee member Sen. Lindsey Graham's remarks that he wants to look into whether Trump has any business dealings with Russia.

"The president, obviously, was aware of Senator Graham's suggestion after he made it today and he's fine with that. He has no business in Russia. He has no connections to Russia. So he welcomes that," Spicer said.

"In fact, he is already charged a leading law firm in Washington, D.C., to send a certified letter to Senator Graham to that point that he has no connections to Russia," Spicer said.

The announcement that Trump had retained a lawyer to deal with the Russia probe came just hours before the news broke that he'd fired FBI Director James Comey, who was leading an investigation into the administration's Russian ties.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/trump-hires-law-firm-rebut-suggestion-russia-business-ties-n757106?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

This all ties together - the investigation kicking into a higher gear with all these grand jury subpoenas, Yates' testimony taking the gloss off the healthcare "win" almost as soon as it had been applied, Obama coming out about warning Trump about Flynn, the hiring of this law firm.

Trump's probably feeling very threatened now, perhaps because he himself stands to be implicated in felonious acts if the investigation is allowed to proceed, maybe also because his second big "win" (the first being Gorsuch going onto the SCOTUS) was short-lived thanks to the investigation. Maybe he just hated that Comey wasn't his little lapdog after all, and that's why he had Sessions and his deputy write him their recommendations for his firing.

Whatever the reasoning, Trump looks highly Nixonian now. I hope his political career meets a similarly ignominious fate.

[CleverSonicUsername]

I'm of two minds on the idea of Trump being impeached. On one hand, if he did in fact do something felonious, then I want to have faith that our system will seek the appropriate retribution. On the other, that means Pence is in charge, and it becomes far more likely that we'd inherit an  administration both competent and capable of enacting some really heinous shit.

[Patticus]

There was another piece of news connecting the Trump family to Russia, which broke a couple of days ago. Naturally, Eric Trump fully denies that the events and quotes described ever happened, and taken alone they might be dismiss-able. However, given the FBI investigation, the sheer number of people in Trump's orbit with Russian ties, and Trump's own ties with the country and its oligarchy, it's just likely one more jigsaw puzzle that fits somewhere in that 10,000 piece puzzle of Trump's probable Russian collusion...

Quote

Eric Trump said family golf courses attracted Russian funding, author claims

President’s son denies he said Trump Organization had ‘all the funding we need’ from Russia while Donald Trump ‘tossed off that he had access to $100m’

Eric Trump said three years ago the Trump Organization had “all the funding we need out of Russia” for its golf course projects, according to an author recounting the story of a 2014 meeting with Donald Trump and his son.

Trump-Russia investigation reignites as Senate asks aides to hand over notes

The author also said Donald Trump “sort of tossed off that he had access to $100m”.

The author’s comments – which Eric Trump later said were “completely fabricated” – prompted widespread interest in the media and online.

...

Many observers believe Trump’s tax returns – which he refuses, against 40 years of precedent, to release – will contain evidence of financial relationships with Russian sources. The president has repeatedly denied any such links, despite the existence of statements suggesting otherwise made before his run for office.

Golf writer James Dodson was speaking to WBUR-FM, a Boston-area national public radio station, on Friday. The co-author of Arnold Palmer’s autobiography described a visit to the Trump national golf club in Charlotte, North Carolina.

“Trump was strutting up and down, talking to his new members about how they were part of the greatest club in North Carolina,” Dodson said. “And when I first met him, I asked him – you know, this is the journalist in me – I said: ‘What are you using to pay for these courses?’ And he just sort of tossed off that he had access to $100m.”

Eric Trump, the president’s younger son who is now executive vice-president of the Trump Organization, was also present.

Dodson continued: “So when I got in the cart with Eric, as we were setting off [to play], I said” ‘Eric, who’s funding? I know no banks – because of the recession, the great recession – have touched a golf course. You know, no one’s funding any kind of golf construction. It’s dead in the water the last four or five years.’

“And this is what he said. He said: ‘Well, we don’t rely on American banks. We have all the funding we need out of Russia.’ I said: ‘Really?’ And he said: ‘Oh, yeah. We’ve got some guys that really, really love golf, and they’re really invested in our programs. We just go there all the time.’

“Now that was three years ago, so it was pretty interesting.”

In a tweet issued early on Monday morning, Eric Trump wrote: “This story is completely fabricated and just another example of why there is such a deep distrust of the media in our country.”

Donald Trump has strongly denied many reported links and contacts with Russia. For example, shortly before his inauguration in January he tweeted: “Russia has never tried to use leverage over me. I HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH RUSSIA – NO DEALS, NO LOANS, NO NOTHING!”

In 2013, however, after hosting the Miss Universe pageant in Moscow, he told Real Estate Weekly: “The Russian market is attracted to me, I have a great relationship with many Russians.” He also said that “almost all of the oligarchs were in the room” at a party he threw.

On Sunday morning, he pursued another tactic, writing on Twitter: “When will the Fake Media ask about the Dems dealings with Russia & why the DNC wouldn’t allow the FBI to check their server or investigate?”

Trump’s older son, Donald Jr, has also made mention of financial relationships in Russia. In 2008, speaking at a real estate conference, he said: “We are looking all over the place, primarily Russia.”

He also said: “And in terms of high-end product influx into the US, Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets; say in Dubai, and certainly with our project in SoHo and anywhere in New York. We see a lot of money pouring in from Russia.”

Trump, who has been widely criticized for the amount of time he spends on his own golf courses, spent this weekend at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey. On Saturday night, he tweeted: “The reason I am staying in Bedminster, NJ, a beautiful community, is that staying in [New York City] is much more expensive and disruptive. Meetings!”

A picture posted to Instagram by a club member appeared to show the president playing golf.

Dodson, meanwhile, recounted a meal of cheeseburgers and being enveloped in a “bro hug” by Trump, and said: “You know, I liked the guy. I liked him. I mean, he was somebody you’d like to play golf with.”

He also recounted an exchange with Trump about Palmer, the great champion who died in 2016: “He crossed one finger over the other and he said, ‘Arnold and I are like that.’

“And I told Arnold that the next night at dinner and he laughed and said, ‘Really, Shakespeare? It’s more like this.’ And he crossed his hands and put them at his own throat.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/07/trump-family-golf-courses-russia-funding-author-claims

Pre-election Trump family: "We fucking love Russia. They give us money for our resorts, we go there all the time, that guy Putin's a hoot, they love us, we're looking into deals and loans there!"
Post-election Trump family: "Did we say that? No, no, we said the opposite. The exact opposite of what you said we said all those different times. Totally didn't happen. Caps lock."

[CrownSlayers Shadow]

1 hour ago, CleverSonicUsername said:

I'm of two minds on the idea of Trump being impeached. On one hand, if he did in fact do something felonious, then I want to have faith that our system will seek the appropriate retribution. On the other, that means Pence is in charge, and it becomes far more likely that we'd inherit an  administration both competent and capable of enacting some really heinous shit.

Couldn't they just impeach Pence as well, or invoke their part of the checks and balances to keep him in check in the chance we get a Democrat majority in Congress?

The only reason Trump isn't even being impeached now is because the GOP controls Congress, but should that reverse and the Democrats return to power I can't even see Pence enacting anything too heinous that they can reel him in over.

[Conando]

If both were impeach while the Republicans still held power, then we get good old Paul Ryan as the president. That's not going to end well either.