The General 'Murican Politics Thread

[Patticus]

Julian Assange advised Trump Jr. about the emails yesterday morning, a couple of hours before he stupidly Tweeted the whole lot out:

Also, Assange having a direct private line to the Trumps is pretty disturbing.

The incriminating e-mail to Trump Jr. was sent on June 3rd. While the meeting proper did not occur until June 9th, Trump must have been made aware of its imminence:

Quote

In a June 7 victory speech, it’s worth noting, Trump promised revelations about crimes by Hillary Clinton in the near future, perhaps on June 13. No such speech ever materialized.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/07/and-it-was-all-true/533265/

Again that infamous question comes up: What did the president know, and when did he know it?

3 hours ago, xXx reMy xXx said:

How much more компромат can the NYT possibly dig up?

Today's bombshell was particularly juicy although I feel that nothing anyone digs up is going to do much to these clowns, they just seem to endlessly move on and on 

They don't call him Teflon Don for nothing, but Trump Jr. doesn't necessarily possess the non-stick qualities of his father. I feel like even if the treason charges don't stick, he's probably going to be done with politics for the foreseeable future. I can see him retreating to the relative safety of his business interests until everything blows over - but given the significance of the meeting and the emails, that may not happen. As many legal experts have already said to the media, this is as close as we've come so far to a smoking cannon.

[Tani Coyote]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/democratic-candidates-just-pulled-off-surprise-wins-in-two-oklahoma-statehouse-races

Some excellent news. Democrats have flipped a state Senate and state House seat in Oklahoma, putting them at +3 for state and federal seats gained this year.

Considering the state House seat is normally 60-40 towards the GOP, this bodes well for legislative races later this year. If Democratic anger manifests, the GOP might just see a serious reversal in Virginia's legislature in particular.

Given the outcome of the special US house races, though, the good results are likely the result of a more active opposition. But the increased Democratic margins across the board indicate a lot of districts will be in play, especially if they have open seats.

[Tani Coyote]

https://www.buzzfeed.com/dominicholden/congress-transgender-military-vote?utm_term=.oggVE3eyK#.pkzp19WgL

Moderate Republicans have defeated a House bill that would have repealed requirements the military provide gender transition care to service members. The vote was 214-209.

As bad as a lot of things are right now, our saving grace is the moderates aren't as spineless as we tend to characterize them as. A lot of them clearly no longer care to make attacks on LGBT rights a central part of the GOP platform, and the GOP leadership will just have to deal with it.

The bill was being proposed as a cost-saving measure, saving $3.5 billion... a number that doesn't seem to have much backing behind it. This even as they try to go for hundreds of billions in tax cuts for the wealthy. This also ignoring the fact that while that price tag seems scary, the long-term health costs associated with dysmorphia are probably higher, so providing free gender transition is preventive care.

Also, lol at that one guy randomly inserting "Make America Great Again" as part of the argument for it. The mainstream GOP are freely embracing that slogan and it's disturbing to be honest.

[Patticus]

Excerpts have been posted of Trump’s conversation with journalists, on Air Force One:

Quote

They have an 8,000 year culture. So when they see 1776 — to them, that’s like a modern building. The White House was started — was essentially built in 1799. To us, that’s really old. To them, that’s like a super modern building, right?

Quote

One of the things with the wall is you need transparency. You have to be able to see through it. In other words, if you can’t see through that wall — so it could be a steel wall with openings, but you have to have openings because you have to see what’s on the other side of the wall.

And I’ll give you an example. As horrible as it sounds, when they throw the large sacks of drugs over, and if you have people on the other side of the wall, you don’t see them — they hit you on the head with 60 pounds of stuff? It’s over. As crazy as that sounds, you need transparency through that wall. But we have some incredible designs.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/13/us/politics/trump-air-force-one-excerpt-transcript.html?_r=0

Nobody can call Trump an intelligent man if that is what he's coming out with, in off-the-record conversations he later decides are in actual fact on-the-record. I've seen young children more coherent and less mind numbingly stupid than him. That he is now the president... Jesus fucking Christ, the lunatics truly are in control of the asylum now, aren't they?

Quote

I’m a tremendous fracker

That you are, Mr. President. That you are.

 

The White House has officially released 112 pages of voter comments to Kobach & Trump's Election Integrity Commission. You'll want to take a look at them, because they're awesome, but be warned - there is some adult content!
 

Spoiler

https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/docs/comments-received-june-29-through-july-11-2017.pdf

 

[Tani Coyote]

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/7/14/15970994/senate-health-care-bill-brian-sandoval-dean-heller

My own state of Nevada may be what destroys the GOP Senate healthcare plan.

GOP Governor Sandoval is extremely popular, and his endorsement is likely to prove crucial to Dean Heller keeping his seat next year. If Sandoval comes out against the GOP healthcare bill, it would be extremely stupid of Heller to back it.

Sandoval has established himself as one of the most prominent defenders of many of Obamacare's provisions, and given Nevada is one of the success stories of Obamacare's policies, his opinion on the bill is extremely important.

[Mick]

Well the weirdo rightist who love Pepe got what they wanted.  I'm not really thrilled about it at all.  Of course, I find 'Murican politics to be a horrific mess.  I'm more of an individualist than anything else.  I was considering myself an anarchist between 2013-2016 (even anarcho-capitalist, but that's just as bad as the other anarchy with the other isms), but then I dropped that a while ago. 

I do recognize the left-right paradigm is not needed and things haven't been cool in 'Murica since 1913.  Oh and don't get me started on that awful communist institution known as the Federal Reserve (read The Creature from Jeckyll Island, it is the whole 100% truth about the fed).  The left-right paradigm is so bad that it is now even in the anarchist/liberty people and so much in-fighting has happened with those groups of people.

[SSF1991]

To be honest, I don't think the country is as divided between left and right as the media wants you to think.

Yes, the election was very divided but I still feel like that was less so political views and more so "hey look at the crap this candidate did" that decided it. Yes, there's clearly a split between Republicans/Democrats and Liberals/Conservatives but I really don't think it's as split as it looks. I mean, look at the millions of people that took place in the Women's March earlier this year. Thousands upon thousands of people have protested Trump, where as pro-Trump rallies can barely get 100-200 max. The country is more blue than red, much more liberal than conservative. It's just our electoral system is...complicated. Even in the GOP Congress, there's GOP Congressmen that aren't as right-leaning as it seems, and they're the only reason an Obamacare replacement hasn't worked so far.

It's even suspected that Trump's actual support base isn't the full 35% or so that currently approves of him in polls. Lots of speculation, some with evidence, is that people that actually support this man fully is more along the lines of 20-25% of the country. The Trump Regrets Twitter, which shows Trump voters expressing regret over their votes for him, has been having a field day.

I think a vast majority is blue. And this majority is growing as the older generations shrink. So we'll see.

[-Robin-]

Senators Lee and Moran have announced they will vote No on the senate healthcare bill. 

With those two No votes along with the previous two No votes, and no Independents and Democrats signing onto it, obviously, the healthcare bill is currently DOA to even approach debate. 

[Patticus]

Nevertheless, it is a zombie bill that will ever hound us during the term of this administration. It will only be "defeated" in a true sense if/when the Democrats storm back into office in 2018 and 2020, knocking the GOP majorities out and, from there, working to improve the ACA, and even move toward single payer.

However, an eternity lies between then and now, and I fully expect something to be passed in the meantime. Trump's tax reform plans, for example, cannot happen before the AHCA passes - the former depends on the latter to exist in any meaningful sense at all.

[-Robin-]

They did try a Plan C today - repeal Obamacare outright and work on a replacement later, thereby leaving insurance markets in a void until they come up with something.

 

The three "No"s to kill that idea took a mere 5 hours.

[Tani Coyote]

https://www.bustle.com/p/this-is-why-women-in-virginia-are-running-for-office-in-record-numbers-71173

26 women filed to run in Virginia's primaries in 2015. 51 have filed to run for this year's.

Almost all of them cite Trump as their motivating force.

This really has blown back in the GOP's face, considering there are more women than men in this country.

On 7/16/2017 at 9:23 PM, Foxboy Mick said:

Oh and don't get me started on that awful communist institution known as the Federal Reserve (read The Creature from Jeckyll Island, it is the whole 100% truth about the fed).

Communist?

A large part of the federal reserve is privately owned. If anything it'd be state capitalist.

Communists don't befriend the bankers. They seize everything they have. No compromise, no negotiations, everything is just flat out taken.

I don't entirely disagree with getting rid of private banks, however, given banks are like insurance companies and frankly don't provide much of a service meriting they be kept private. All they do is push money around.

The idea bankers and insurers should be free to toss absurd amounts of money around is rightfully challenged every time it crops up.

Also that book is written by a man who is a 9/11 Truther, HIV/AIDS denialist, and believes Noah's Ark is in Turkey. I wouldn't give him too much credit.

On 7/16/2017 at 10:05 PM, SSF1991 said:

\Even in the GOP Congress, there's GOP Congressmen that aren't as right-leaning as it seems, and they're the only reason an Obamacare replacement hasn't worked so far.\

They have likewise killed anti-LGBT bills that the hard right GOP would have thought would be easy pickings.

Quote

I think a vast majority is blue. And this majority is growing as the older generations shrink. So we'll see.

This is true.

It's just the system as it stands has a built in small state bias in the Senate, while the House is easily gerrymandered to give more spread out rural voters more power.

Any Democratic strategy to regain power should be two fold: in addition to trying to court some rural voters to win back key House seats, they also need to surge turnout in the cities. This will allow Democrats to win Governor and Senate seats, which are where Democrats already are far more competitive.

10 hours ago, -Robin- said:

The three "No"s to kill that idea took a mere 5 hours.

All three came from Republican women, it should be noted, with the 51st being Lisa Murkowski.

She saves the day once again.

Noteworthy: Murkowski backed the blanket repeal in 2015. No doubt because she knew it wouldn't pass Obama's veto, so it was symbolic.

Similarly, Democrats shouldn't read too much into the large amount of Democrats backing Medicare for All on the floor.

[Tornado]

It really is hard to overstate how absolutely fucked the GOP is in the Senate if McCain dies of cancer like Ted Kennedy did.

[Tani Coyote]

3 minutes ago, Tornado said:

It really is hard to overstate how absolutely fucked the GOP is in the Senate if McCain dies of cancer like Ted Kennedy did.

I can't lie. When the news first broke, I felt bad because I have stated before that McCain's age could put his seat in play in 2018.

However, given the closely divided nature of the Senate and McCain's status of being from what's gradually becoming a swing state, it is hard not to think about this development's long-term political implications.

From my understanding of Arizona law, in the event of a vacancy, the Governor appoints a replacement, who serves until the next statewide election (which would be 2018). At that point, a Senator is elected who serves the remainder of the term; in McCain's case, that would be 2022. This would contrast with Ted Kennedy's seat, as Massachusetts simply calls a special election to fill a vacancy and they fill it for the rest of the term.

In layman's terms, whether or not this has a real impact really depends on when a vacancy occurs. There is no procedure to declare a member of the Senate incapacitated, although the Senate can declare a seat vacant with two-thirds (so obviously that won't happen). Should McCain pass away or resign before November 2018, his seat will be up for election alongside Jeff Flake's, but if after, it won't be up until 2020. In the latter scenario, it likely remains safely in GOP hands due to Trump's re-election coattails (unless Arizona shocks us all by going Democrat, which isn't entirely impossible).

The real impact of McCain's illness, however, is likely to be similar to Ted Kennedy's. Kennedy's illness often kept him off the Senate floor, bringing the number of Senators down by 1 and reducing the Democrats' supposedly invincible 60-seat supermajority.

In much the same way, McCain's likely recurring absence brings the number of effective Republican votes down to 51. It should be noted that McCain's absence for surgery a few days ago was a leading reason McConnell wanted to hold off on a healthcare vote.

Basically: this is going to alter the politics of the Senate regardless of what happens. Every time McCain is absent, frequent defectors like Murkowski and Collins can give the Democrats the majority on any topic. Pence, meanwhile, is no longer looking to be an active Vice President.

[Tani Coyote]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/21/politics/sean-spicer-resigns-anthony-scaramucci/index.html

In response to the appointment of a new White House Communications Director, Sean Spicer has resigned as Press Secretary. This is in spite of Trump's request that he stay on board. Inside sources indicate Spicer was concerned Trump's Comm. Director choice wouldn't be able to handle the role and he'd have to do that job as well as Press Secretary, but Trump hired the new Director anyway.

Sounds like Spicer is the first high ranking person to get fed up with Trump and quit of his own accord.

[Blacklightning]

9 hours ago, Lord Liquiir (Ogilvie) said:

Spicer was concerned Trump's Comm. Director choice wouldn't be able to handle the role

Can't say I'm surprised he'd say that - even he looks like he has trouble with it. I mean, have you seen the guy's face? He has that same perplexed look every time he takes questions.

"Jesus christ, do I have to defend this bullshit?"

[Tani Coyote]

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/senate-byrd-rules-gop-healthcare-bill-2017-7

The GOP's problems with passing a healthcare bill continue unabated.

Under the Byrd Rule, legislation that isn't seen as making an impact on the federal budget can be blocked from going through the budget reconciliation process. Such a block requires 60 votes to overrule.

According to the GOP's own Senate parliamentarian, numerous provisions of the bill violate the Byrd Rule:

 

• The plan to defund Planned Parenthood
• A provision that would restrict the use of tax credits for abortions.
• Getting rid of the essential health benefits for Medicaid in 2020. 
• How the bill deals with cost-sharing subsidies
• The section that locks individuals out of the insurance marketplace for six months if they don't have continuous coverage. 
• The medical loss ratio.
• The provision that allows states that haven't used all of their block grants for health coverage for non-health purposes.
• Changes to the Medicaid waiver system by prioritizing HCBS waivers.
• A provision that requires a report regarding CMS-64 and Transformed Medicaid Statistical Information System data. 

This basically means McConnell has two options. He can either remove the offending provisions, or he can move to change the rules of the Senate for budget reconciliation, which would be a de facto nuclear option, as it means anything can be passed by simple majority alone provided it's supposedly for the budget.

Given the fact the GOP's Senate majority no longer looks safe in light of McCain's health issues, I don't think he'll want to go nuclear.

Speaking of McCain and the Senate.

http://hotair.com/archives/2017/07/21/ward-mccain-step-can-appointed-replace/

Kelli Ward, presumptive GOP Senate candidate in 2018, has openly called on him to resign. She frames it as being for the good of Arizona, and immediately names a possible replacement: herself.

Ward is expected to run against Jeff Flake, Arizona's other Senator, in the primary next year. She argues for McCain's resignation even harder by saying that if she's appointed to fill McCain's seat, she has no reason to compete against Flake. It is worth noting that she made a primary run against McCain before, but ultimately was defeated by him.

Flake, who doesn't have a for-sure victory in next year's race, was naturally disgusted at the comments. He'll certainly have a soundbite to use against her in next year's primary, though. Ward is celebrated as a much stronger conservative than Flake and McCain, but her attempt at a naked powergrab probably won't help her cause.

It really is impressive. You'd think the Democrats would be the ones most interested in seeing McCain resign. Apparently not.

[Tani Coyote]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/22/politics/congress-deal-russia-sanctions/index.html

The two parties once again put aside their differences to snub Trump.

As you might remember, the Senate passed a unanimous resolution a little while back expressing support for NATO as a slight against Trump's refusal to openly endorse collective defense.

Now, leadership of both parties in both chambers will vote on a bill this week that not only imposes new sanctions on Russia, but also allows Congress to veto any relaxation of sanctions by the Presidency.

The decision is apparently prompted by Trump mulling over returning confiscated property to Russia. Congress has responded by deciding the time has come to reduce the power of the Presidency just a little. If this keeps up, the next President will probably have their appointees chosen for them by the Senate before they even name them.

[8ther]

17 minutes ago, Lord Liquiir (Ogilvie) said:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/22/politics/congress-deal-russia-sanctions/index.html

The two parties once again put aside their differences to snub Trump.

As you might remember, the Senate passed a unanimous resolution a little while back expressing support for NATO as a slight against Trump's refusal to openly endorse collective defense.

Now, leadership of both parties in both chambers will vote on a bill this week that not only imposes new sanctions on Russia, but also allows Congress to veto any relaxation of sanctions by the Presidency.

The decision is apparently prompted by Trump mulling over returning confiscated property to Russia. Congress has responded by deciding the time has come to reduce the power of the Presidency just a little. If this keeps up, the next President will probably have their appointees chosen for them by the Senate before they even name them.

So if I understand this correctly, this bill going through means that the Russians main reason(the sanctions) for helping Trump will be dashed?

[Tani Coyote]

1 minute ago, CD Sanic said:

So if I understand this correctly, this bill going through means that the Russians main reason(the sanctions) for helping Trump will be dashed?

Eeyup.

And there's nothing he can do about it except take it up with the Supreme Court.

[Tani Coyote]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/21/politics/clovis-nominated-to-usda/

Trump has announced he will nominate Sam Clovis, a campaign aide, to be the head scientist at the USDA.

Sam Clovis has a background in political science, but he has no background in the hard sciences. Congress' rules regarding the USDA require that the Undersecretary of Agriculture for Research, Education and Economics have a scientific background.

Trump is handwaving the rules on the basis of Clovis' military experience, that he was coming up with Dept. of Agriculture policy before a formal Secretary was appointed, and the fact Clovis is from Iowa.

You are not dreaming. This is real.

[Dizcrybe]

Well, it's consistent with the rest of his picks, so...

[Patticus]

Yeah, as depressing as it is to see Trump conflate political science with actual science, that choice is pretty much par for the course.

Meanwhile, Sean Spicer made the end of his White House career count:

Quote

Sean Spicer was 'spotted stealing a mini-fridge from junior White House staff'

Former Navy Commander allegedly waited until the researchers went home before dragging cooler out of their office and along President's driveway

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/sean-spicer-press-secretary-stole-mini-fridge-icebox-white-house-junior-staff-donald-trump-resigned-a7854901.html

Is he living in a political sitcom we're all unaware of?

[Tani Coyote]

35 minutes ago, Dizcrybe said:

Well, it's consistent with the rest of his picks, so...

28 minutes ago, Patticus said:

Yeah, as depressing as it is to see Trump conflate political science with actual science, that choice is pretty much par for the course.

On the other hand, it's also blatantly illegal. This is the first pick that legally should not be able to serve, as opposed to one who is just unqualified in general.

 

[Patticus]

5 minutes ago, Lord Liquiir (Ogilvie) said:

On the other hand, it's also blatantly illegal. This is the first pick that legally should not be able to serve, as opposed to one who is just unqualified in general.

The question is, will the Senate GOP actually acknowledge that, or will they rubber stamp it?

[Tani Coyote]

11 minutes ago, Patticus said:

The question is, will the Senate GOP actually acknowledge that, or will they rubber stamp it?

It remains to be seen. He still has to be approved by the relevant committee, whose membership admittedly don't give much hope it will be struck down. Given McConnell himself serves on it, though, this would be a huge blow to his credibility. While he is a very prominent obstructionist, he's the kind of weasel who Rules Lawyers people into submission.

I'm waiting for Clovis' "scientist" experience to be seen as fulfilled by the fact he served as Trump's guy on agriculture for a little bit. Given the Farm Bill's language is "significant experience or specialized training," I guess a few months will count as significant experience from now on.