The General 'Murican Politics Thread

[8ther]

With these two madmen with nukes having a dick measuring contest, I am beyond terrified for the people of Guam, Japan, and South Korea. I  heard that Trump needs the approval of congress in order to launch nukes, i sure hope they have the common sense to understand that there are ways for dealing with N. Korea that doesn't involve war.

[Tani Coyote]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/10/in-a-new-poll-half-of-republicans-say-they-would-support-postponing-the-2020-election-if-trump-proposed-it/?utm_term=.8ffd1be5f3c9

52% of Republican voters would support President Trump if he proposed postponing the 2020 election. The comparisons with Weimar Germany are looking less and less farfetched. There's a large, active voter bloc okay with destroying democracy for the sake of preventing voter fraud from destroying democracy.

https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2479

Virginia Governor polls have seen a shift. The Democrat, Northam, is ahead 6 points. The most important issue to voters is healthcare, and the Democrat has solid margins of support there.

The Republican candidate, Gillespie, attracts more votes from independents and crossover Democrats, but his perception of being more competent on taxes and the economy is not as strong as the Democrat's perception of being better on healthcare.

Gillespie has a higher favorable rating than Northam, however, so this race still has no clear victor.

What is heartening is that two-thirds of the Virginia House of Delegates will be highly competitive this year. 60 races are contested, as opposed to just 29 in 2015. Depending on how things go, the Governor races could decide the House, or vice versa. Democrats need 17 seats to take the House, and there are 49 Republican incumbents fighting off a Democratic challenge. Provided Dems keep all their current seats, a House majority is looking within reach.

Seizing the Virginia House would put the Dems very close to unified control of the state, though the GOP narrowly controls the state Senate 21-19. Taking the House would complement the good odds of Democrats retaking full control of Washington and New Jersey on the same day.

1 hour ago, SSF1991 said:

The left thought he was crazy and a madman, but they never thought he was just a fad. There was one point where people thought that his election defeats meant the end for him, but that was it.

The NSDAP's declining margins between the two 1932 elections gave von Papen confidence that Hitler would be a useful idiot who could be controlled and removed from power when it became more politically feasible. It wasn't an alien idea that the NSDAP's sudden rise in 1930 and July 1932, followed by a decline in November 1932, indicated a protest vote that might soon slip back to normal levels with another vote.

He was wrong, as we know.

1 hour ago, SSF1991 said:

Actually, it was primarily the SA and SS that did most of the 'enforcing".

It helps to have control of the police who will turn a blind eye to this.

1 hour ago, SSF1991 said:

As for police violence, this didn't begin to ramp up until the days leading up to a March 6th, 1933 election,

Which I already said.

1 hour ago, SSF1991 said:

and it was mainly anti-Communist propaganda, suppression, and paramilitary violence being done by the SA and SS

Let's also note that Germany's policing was largely state-based. Hermann Goering was in control of the Prussian police as part of the same arrangement. Prussia has the bulk of Germany's population... you can see where this goes. This is one of the biggest strategic blunders von Papen commits: it was assumed it was okay to give the Nazis the federal Interior Ministry since it had no power.

Too bad the dimbulb didn't account for the Nazis taking over the most powerful state-level police force in the same deal.

[Meta77]

1 hour ago, CD Sanic said:

With these two madmen with nukes having a dick measuring contest, I am beyond terrified for the people of Guam, Japan, and South Korea. I  heard that Trump needs the approval of congress in order to launch nukes, i sure hope they have the common sense to understand that there are ways for dealing with N. Korea that doesn't involve war.

If your terrified for Japan you should be at least hopeful the US protects them regardless if you dont like trump a lump.  easy to say ones worried when were not the country having icbm fired miles from our shoreline every other week. Sure it be easy to find other ways but seeing as none of those ways have worked for years and now they have got to the point of being able to put mini nukes in missles. Wagging the finger and taking some of their allowance is not working. Don't get me wrong I would prefer not to have another war but if brought to it I'd prefer we just wipe them out

Also don't believe Yahoo users. Honestly firing  a nuke is not that simple.  there's a lot of procedures before one flies

[Tani Coyote]

No surprise the man who cited faulty "studies" that indicated the overwhelming majority of American Muslims want Shari'a law is also citing a poll conducted by Zogby, a polling agency that is widely disliked among pollsters. When in doubt, double down on the "bias" excuse; only the sources that agree with you are the paragon of objective truth. It's like a vaxxer, but he has the launch codes.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

Fivethirtyeight has averaged all the polls from inauguration. Among all people, his approval slipped below disapproval 2 weeks in. Among likely voters, 3 weeks. The approval and disapproval have gone up and down, but he has yet to regain net approval. He hit record net disapproval on day 195 - 20.5%. Right now his net disapproval is 17.7%. His raw approval is 38.5%, right around the 39% Truman had going into his reelection bid.

Truman is famous for winning despite all polls indicating he was going to be beaten by Dewey. Anyone who hates Trump has to make a point to turn out and not just assume he'll lose. On the other hand, should Trump see a similar group turn out in 2020, he might just narrowly lose if he fails to make lightning strike twice in Florida and the Great Lakes.

[8ther]

So in the event of a war with N.Korea, would the east coast of the US be in danger?

[KHCast]

But he's the president so he can do whatever he wants I guess 

[8ther]

At this point our only hope is that ether Trump backs down(unlikely), congress impeaches him now(very unlikely) the Russia investigation is concluded(that's up in the air at this point)

This may be the end of times...

[Patticus]

1 hour ago, CD Sanic said:

So in the event of a war with N.Korea, would the east coast of the US be in danger?

It wouldn't be danger from NK, no. However, if nukes are deployed and the war spins out into a regional or global conflict, then yes, the east coast is very much in danger, just not from NK.

[Tani Coyote]

37 minutes ago, CD Sanic said:

congress impeaches him now(very unlikely)

I wouldn't be so sure.

Congress has already repeatedly demonstrated an interest in rebelling against Trump on foreign policy. The Senate reaffirmed the USA's commitment to NATO 100-0 when Trump would not. The Senate passed the sanctions against NK, Iran and Russia (and limited Trump's ability to reduce sanctions on Russia) 98-2 (the two opponents were those most associated with radicalism, Bernie Sanders and Rand Paul).

What's more, Trump is going after McConnell now, and the Senate as a whole is tiring of his attempt to run Congress like a company. The President is but one of many powerbrokers in the federal government, they just get the most attention because they can act unilaterally and run the Executive Branch.

If Trump continues to make an idiot of himself, it's not alien that the GOP leadership in both chambers would move to remove him with the Democrats. They still have Pence waiting in the wings and can try to recapture Trump's base between now and 2020. The fact Trump's lost a lot of his support in key swing states, furthermore, means he's increasingly less useful. Trump the candidate was able to defy all expectations by winning the primaries and then taking solid blue states, but there's no guarantee Trump the President will do the same 3 years from now.

The main political cost of removing your own Party's President is that it could result in primary challenges or decreased enthusiasm from the base in the general. But given Trump is already on the verge of trying to primary GOP rivals and how he's lost a lot of his support in key swing races, it's becoming less and less costly to toss him out. Doubly so given Democrats aren't guaranteed to get another Obama in 2020. They could very well end up with another candidate like Clinton who just doesn't fire up youth and minority voters, allowing President Pence to win the election.

That said, the GOP is likely to play it safe and see how they perform in the midterms before contemplating throwing out Trump. Though if war does look to be imminent, Pence and the Cabinet can always move to remove him from office without Congress. And Trump can't get rid of the Cabinet without firing the whole federal bureaucracy, because every Cabinet Secretary has their own huge line of succession.

[Patticus]

The Democrats may not have another Obama, but they may have a Castro...

Quote

Former Obama Cabinet secretary Julián Castro has formed a new PAC as he steps up his political activity and considers a possible run for president in 2020.

The new group is called “Opportunity First,” a favorite catchphrase of Castro’s since his days as mayor of San Antonio, though it is also similar to President Donald Trump’s “America First” slogan. The group will support candidates for federal, state and local office and could finance other political activities for Castro, who has already lent a hand to several congressional and gubernatorial candidates around the country since the end of the Obama administration.

Documents filed this week for Opportunity First list Castro as its president. Castro declined to comment.

Castro, long considered a rising star in the Democratic Party, has discussed his political intentions carefully, telling reporters that he will not run for office in 2018 but is not ruling out running for president. Castro expanded a little more in a June interview on the Austin PBS show “Overheard with Evan Smith,” telling the Texas Tribune’s Smith that he will “look and see how things develop over the next year or so and then make a decision as to whether that’s something I want to do.”

He is taking several preliminary steps associated with presidential campaigns; in addition to forming a political group, Castro is also writing a memoir.

Castro’s signature accomplishment as San Antonio’s mayor was championing a one-eighth cent sales tax increase to fund new pre-kindergarten centers, and as secretary of Housing and Urban Development he described the department as “the Department of Opportunity.” On the national political stage, Castro delivered a well-received keynote address at the 2012 Democratic National Convention — where he called on the nation to “invest in opportunity today for prosperity tomorrow” — before then-President Barack Obama nominated him to the Cabinet in 2014.

Castro then made Hillary Clinton’s vice presidential shortlist last year, and he campaigned around the country for the Democratic presidential nominee.

More at the link: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/10/julian-castro-pac-2020-ambitions-241485

The Democratic field will be a crowded one in 2020, with several big names running alongside numerous unknowns. My hope is that they can forge a new Obama/Biden-esque partnership - a young/old ticket, ideally one representing a northern and a southern state, which can appeal to both the energetic progressive wing and moderate wings of the party, and win favor with minority voters who were turned off in 2016. I believe Castro could be the ideal youthful end of such a ticket.

[Tani Coyote]

Given Castro polls as more popular than Ted Cruz in Texas, it will be interesting to see if he holds the key to increasing Democrats' performance there. Maybe not flipping the state, but perhaps giving Dems a few more House seats in 2020.

It's definitely a good idea to bring someone on board from the South or Southwest, given Arizona and Georgia are looking increasingly ripe for the picking for the right Democratic candidates.

[8ther]

58 minutes ago, Lord Basil (Ogilvie) said:

I wouldn't be so sure.

Congress has already repeatedly demonstrated an interest in rebelling against Trump on foreign policy. The Senate reaffirmed the USA's commitment to NATO 100-0 when Trump would not. The Senate passed the sanctions against NK, Iran and Russia (and limited Trump's ability to reduce sanctions on Russia) 98-2 (the two opponents were those most associated with radicalism, Bernie Sanders and Rand Paul).

What's more, Trump is going after McConnell now, and the Senate as a whole is tiring of his attempt to run Congress like a company. The President is but one of many powerbrokers in the federal government, they just get the most attention because they can act unilaterally and run the Executive Branch.

If Trump continues to make an idiot of himself, it's not alien that the GOP leadership in both chambers would move to remove him with the Democrats. They still have Pence waiting in the wings and can try to recapture Trump's base between now and 2020. The fact Trump's lost a lot of his support in key swing states, furthermore, means he's increasingly less useful. Trump the candidate was able to defy all expectations by winning the primaries and then taking solid blue states, but there's no guarantee Trump the President will do the same 3 years from now.

The main political cost of removing your own Party's President is that it could result in primary challenges or decreased enthusiasm from the base in the general. But given Trump is already on the verge of trying to primary GOP rivals and how he's lost a lot of his support in key swing races, it's becoming less and less costly to toss him out. Doubly so given Democrats aren't guaranteed to get another Obama in 2020. They could very well end up with another candidate like Clinton who just doesn't fire up youth and minority voters, allowing President Pence to win the election.

That said, the GOP is likely to play it safe and see how they perform in the midterms before contemplating throwing out Trump. Though if war does look to be imminent, Pence and the Cabinet can always move to remove him from office without Congress. And Trump can't get rid of the Cabinet without firing the whole federal bureaucracy, because every Cabinet Secretary has their own huge line of succession.

 

But would they though? They know full well that Trump is a unpredictable manchild with access to the codes, if they they were concerned about a nuclear war breaking out they would have removed him this morning after that "Locked and Load" tweet.

[Tani Coyote]

3 hours ago, CD Sanic said:

But would they though? They know full well that Trump is a unpredictable manchild with access to the codes, if they they were concerned about a nuclear war breaking out they would have removed him this morning after that "Locked and Load" tweet.

It's a safe assumption members of the various relevant Senate committees are fairly informed on this topic.

If they thought there was a real risk of war, especially nuclear, they no doubt would have tugged on Pence's sleeve and told him to get Trump out of there. Failing that, perhaps even the Secretary of Defense would suggest that to Pence.

Regarding the Secretary of Defense: he needs to authorize the launch. While the President can of course fire an uncooperative Secretary of Defense, there will be repercussions to such a thing.

It's an area where we get a taste of what it's like to have a constitutional monarchy. The President in theory has broad power to nuke whoever he or she desires, but in reality, they are constrained by the Defense Department, which often has more confidence in Congress than the President. Firing the Defense Secretary without good cause would be right up there with canning Jeff Sessions or Bob Mueller in terms of stupid decisions Trump could make.

As for North Korea, they likewise are masters of posturing. They're presumably fully aware that they will lose any full confrontation. They just like to saber rattle so they can either get free stuff or keep the noose from tightening too much. This is, after all, similar to the logic behind the Soviets putting nukes on Cuba: they didn't really want a nuclear confrontation, they just wanted the USA to take its own nukes out of Turkey. In the end though, both sides had a huge PR boon in being able to claim the other side "backed down," even though it's more they just agreed to not station nukes so close to each other's borders.

[Tani Coyote]

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/torch-wielding-white-supremacists-march-university-virginia-n792021

White nationalists held a rally at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville last night. There were hundreds of them, all with torches, and they chanted things ranging from "White Lives Matter" to "Jews will not replace us."

There was a small group of counterprotestors who stayed in the center of the rally. Violence broke out, with the white supremacists waving their torches at the counterprotestors, but some counterprotestors responded by using pepper spray.

There's been wide condemnation of the event by university and state officials, but there's another rally called "Unite the Right" planned today, which is a demonstration in support of strong immigration restrictions and the ability of whites to have separate institutions. Officials, however, are saying that there was clear intimidation as part of this rally, and so they don't think it falls under speech and assembly protections.

Unsurprisingly, a lot of people deny the demonstrators are racist or white supremacist or neo-Nazi at all.

[SSF1991]

As a Virginian, I am so sorry for what is going on in my state. I'm disgusted.

[Tornado]

God damn. That guy certainly chose the right kind of car to do it with.

[Dizcrybe]

And to think all of this is happening because literal neo-nazis are now allowed to have rallies like this in the first place, all because "we need to consider all points of views, it's just differing opinions, their views are important toooooo" shut the fuck up. If the country would stop treating these people with kid gloves and put its foot down for once, all this shit could've been prevented.

[Tornado]

28 minutes ago, Dizcrybe said:

now allowed

 

That was 1980. That wasn't just something that they made up for a joke.

 

28 minutes ago, Dizcrybe said:

If the country would stop treating these people with kid gloves and put its foot down for once, all this shit could've been prevented.

And on what pretext would the foot be put down over?

[KHCast]

This literally just shows how in denial these people are about the issues in this country goddamn. This is the civil rights era all over again. "Oh I'm not racist, I just support racist ideals that discriminate and separte" and sorry, but yeah gotta agree with Diz that this treatment that discrimination and hate is a "viewpoint that needs to be considered, we need to respect their views, it's just a different opinion" shit is just getting out of hand. The fact that criticizing racist opinions or calling out shitty ideals, gets YOU in the hot seat and seen as "intolerant to different views,  or immature for not considering their viewpoint" has me just wanna seriously just stay in bed and never get out. I'm not gonna treat racist, homophobic viewpoints as just as credible and respectable as any other view. Don't care if I'm unreasonable for that, but sorry, these are people and lives, not Comic book or video game opinions 

[Phos]

Wow what a fuck up of a company:

They keep using that hash tag by the way.

 

[Candescence]

Goddamn fucking nazis. And Trump's statement blaming both sides has only emboldened them because they consider it vindication for their "the left are terrible too, guys" defense.

[Tani Coyote]

I'd think intimidation would be a yardstick for curbing free expression.

We already ban death threats or shouting phrases that could cause a panic.

These white supremacists were walking around with torches shouting less than pacifistic phrases. People would rightly be afraid, especially given some of the marchers started swinging the torches around. That's looking less like a rally or protest and more like an angry mob.

The precedent is free speech can be limited if it causes serious, immediate concern for one or another's safety.

The ACLU might defend Milo's ability to promote an offensive book, but I don't think they'd defend these guys here. It's no different than when the American Nazi Party intentionally held rallies in Jewish neighborhoods. There's a clear intimidation element that stifles someone else's free speech and thus it merits regulation.

Meanwhile, the Unite the Right assembly was already illegal and asked to disperse before it could begin, it should be noted. It's not that there was a blank check to racism here, it's just the racists didn't care about the law. Their own organizers even said beforehand they planned to hold the rally with or without government approval.

You know, commit a crime.

[Patticus]

Neo-Nazis and white supremacists have been celebrating Trump's remarks about the Charlottesville riots:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/neo-nazis-celebrate-trumps-remarks-about-charlottesville-riots-2017-8

It's more than a little unsettling to see an American president refuse to condemn actual fascist protesters. I know they're his base, and that he probably understands that he relies on their support, but come on, US presidents condemn these people's vile ideology as a matter of course. It's just weird to see the day come when that is no longer the default stance. Hopefully it won't last long.

Meanwhile...

He doesn't sound very anti-fascist, does he? Almost sounds giddy with excitement. Then again though, he did re-use an old Nazi propaganda poster in the Brexit campaign, so I suppose it shouldn't be that surprising.

[KHCast]

Apparently nowadays it's "offensive" and not professional to openly condem even fucking Nazi's, and you must treat said views as credible respectable ways of thinking. Though I doubt Trump being the guy that hired guys like Bannon is genuinely just concerned with his public appearance in this

[CottonCandy]

Absolutely disgusting. What's even scary is that there are members of the alt-right who praises the horrific act. Trump has got to condemn this group before it gets out of hand.