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http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/21/politics/graham-cassidy-states-health-care-debate/index.html

As Mike Pence drones on about the Founding Fathers and federalism and how much better it is if your Governor takes away pre-existing conditions protection than if the President and Congress do, Louisiana Senator Kennedy is trying to put in a measure that bans states from using federal funds for single payer initiatives.

The hypcorisy is astounding. They glorify flexibility with every healthcare policy under the Sun, except single payer.

On the other hand, Senator Graham, one of the two leading proponents of the bill, says he wouldn't support that amendment, because it undermines the concept of federalism the bill is built upon. So at least he's consistent... at least in words. We'll see how he votes.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/21/politics/jeff-flake-interview-graham-cassidy-preexisting-condition/index.html

Meanwhile, Senator Flake of Arizona places full faith in Governors to keep pre-existing conditions protections, feeling they would yield to public pressure.

You know, the same way the Senate has yielded to public pressure and given up on Obamacare repeal when the majority of Americans want Obamacare to stay intact and be improved upon.

Oh wait.

What a dumbass.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/21/politics/kfile-roy-moore-homosexuality-illegal/index.html

Alabama's GOP primary runoff is on Tuesday (along with several special state elections), and if you needed any further proof Roy Moore is a nutcase, here he is calling for homosexuality to be illegal back in 2005.

Moore is running a serious primary challenge against Luther Strange, who has the backing of Trump and McConnell, and is even further right than Strange is.

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https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/21/1700418/-Seattle-s-minimum-wage-increase-deals-a-blow-to-yet-another-Republican-scare-tactic

Right wing talking point officially debunked. Despite Seattle's minimum wage rising to $13 last year, there has been no noticeable increase in the price of groceries around the city.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/nation-now/2017/06/27/report-finds-seattles-15-minimum-wage-may-hurting-workers/431424001/

Indeed, the results have been the opposite of what one has expected. Minimum wage heavy sectors like restaurants and groceries have seen so real impact on prices, hours, job loss rates, but the other sectors have apparently seen a cut in hours that has contributed to a net decline in earnings despite the higher pay per hour.

Correlation not being causation? CEOs being more moneygrubbing in other sectors? Economic factors squeezing the other sectors but not essentials like food?

If nothing else, it indicates that there's more nuance to the debate than "higher wages = higher prices." Go figure, a right wing talking point smacks into the hard wall of economics not being "If A, then B."

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10 hours ago, Kevin said:

McCain now says he won't vote for the healthcare bill.

Keep in mind, this isn't over until it either truly gets voted down or the date becomes October 1st. I know Ran Paul has said he won't vote for it either, but he's been known to do the opposite when it comes time for the actual vote.

Rand Paul voted yes on the last bill due to a promise it would go to conference in the House.

He quite possibly would have ended up voting no on whatever bill was agreed to in conference, since it no doubt wouldn't be a full repeal.

The good news is that Rand is a pretty dogmatic loon. He voted no on the first replacement bill, then yes for full repeal, and then yes on the skinny repeal only because of the conference promise.

Given it sounds like the House wants to vote on Cassidy-Graham right away, that means Rand can't be won over with a promise of conference. He's "full repeal or bust," much to the annoyance of the Republican leadership. He is the right wing Bernie Bro, willing to miss the forest for the trees.

And in that regard, he is our ally of convenience.

Collins and Murkowski, meanwhile, are fairly solid allies in general. Their consistent defense of Planned Parenthood means their no votes probably won't change without removing that provision, and doing that would no doubt alienate the far right members of the Party.

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So my friend had responded to a Facebook chain claiming Obama was the biggest embarrassment in us history, surpassing Trump, asking why, and the responses he got are...interesting.(especially the claim that it's his fault racism issues got where they are now. Like..what? Sounds like upset white men not wanting to admit fault there.) The fact they got so much support for saying those things also caught me by surprise 

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I wonder what will happen if/once Trump's (the Republican) regime ends to the people who are currently on their side and spouting their xenophobic beliefs. Are they going to come groveling back to the people whose bridges they burned when they revealed their hatred for those people merely existing, or are they going to spend the rest of their years screaming about the "Golden Age of Trump's America" and stand by their horrible beliefs until it's too late to ever redeem themselves? This assumes things don't turn into something worse than right now.

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This political controversy with the NFL can take the piss. It's nothing but blatant hypocrisy against people bringing up issues that they don't wanna admit exist. People are expressing their right to express their views.

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http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/25/politics/health-care-bill-state-of-play/index.html

Today's due to be interesting. We have the CBO's preliminary score for the Graham-Cassidy bill, a Senate Finance hearing on the bill at 2 PM EST, and we're likely to hear Collins, Murkowski, et. al. give updates on their views.

On top of that, the bill has been revised to not so harshly cut funding, but most states are still seeing a net loss. The GOP is using misleading data to try and win over hesitant votes like Murkowski, saying states like Alaska are seeing an increase of 3% in funding; in reality, Alaska is seeing a cut in overall funds, but is spending less on the Medicaid expansion, so the GOP is passing it off as "savings." In the end, the state is seeing less spent on its healthcare.

Meanwhile, Obamacare regulations have been weakened even further, in an attempt to win over Ron Paul and Ted Cruz. States would be free to rollback pre-existing conditions protections so insurers can create different risk pools with different premiums, for one. While there will be a requirement that states applying for block grants describe how they will ensure adequate care, there's no real test for verifying such care, and so it's flimsy.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/25/politics/alabama-senate-final-day/index.html

Tomorrow is the GOP Senate primary between Moore and Strange. Steve Bannon, much of Trump's base, and religious conservatives favor Moore, but Trump and the establishment are backing Strange. Trump has said he will support whoever the eventual nominee is, however, quite possibly undermining Strange's campaign because now there's no worry as to which candidate ends up winning.

Of course, given Moore's many controversial statements on homosexuality, race, etc. he might end up putting the GOP in a tight spot nationally.

Speaking of a tight spot...

http://www.al.com/news/huntsville/index.ssf/2017/09/democrat_doug_jones_in_close_s.html

Alabama will hold a special Senate election this December, with Democrat Doug Jones already the Democratic nominee. Polls indicate that both Moore and Strange will have a close race against him: Moore has 43.5% to Jones' 39.9%, while Strange has 43.1% to Jones' 39.6%.

For reference, when Sessions was first elected in 2002, he won 58.6% of the vote to the Democrat's 39.8%, and in 2008, he won 63-37; he ran unopposed in 2014. Alabama's other Senator won 64-36 in 2016 and 65-35 in 2010.

What's really strange is Doug Jones is consistently left wing, championing equal pay for equal work, a higher minimum wage, more funding for education, environmental regulations, pro-choice abortion policies, and being tough on hate groups like the KKK.

If Jones pulls off an upset in December, he will be Alabama's Senator until January 2021. He would most likely lose re-election against a Republican in the 2020 election (as GOP voters will no doubt turn out in droves to back the GOP Presidential candidate and back GOP candidates downballot), but in the meantime, he'd be another key Democratic vote and help staunch the bleeding likely to result from the 2018 Senate elections. Odds are good in 2018 for the Democrats to lose two or three seats, while picking up one or two in Nevada and Arizona; 2020 would be fertile ground for pickups, so if Jones failed to win re-election in 2020, it wouldn't hurt too badly.

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Regarding the whole thing with the NFL that’s currently going on, the funny thing is, this wasn’t as big as an issue as it is now and the only reason it is is because Trump opened his mouth, so now he’s feeling the Streisand effect in full force.

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http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/25/politics/graham-cassidy-deal-for-sponsor/index.html

Surprise surprise, Senator Cassidy is a con artist.

A provision added to the bill grants $750 million a year from 2023 to 2026 to states that expanded Medicaid after 2015.

Only two states meet the metric: Louisiana (Cassidy's state) and Montana. In addition, the funds are allocated based on population and percentage of the population in poverty, so Louisiana would get the vast majority of the funds.

In short, it appears the repeal/replace effort has just been an attempt to divert resources to Louisiana, which could easily blame a lot of its economic issues on conservative policies.

It's the usual right libertarian pattern: praise personal choice and liberty when you're doing well, then demand a bailout when you're in need.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/25/politics/suffolk-usa-today-menendez-poll/index.html

The vast majority of people in New Jersey, regardless of Party, have called on Senator Menendez to resign if he is convicted of bribery.

Menendez's seat is of interest because if he resigns prior to the state's Governor elections, Chris Christie will be free to appoint a Republican to the seat and give the GOP a 53-47 Senate vote. Menendez' seat will be up for grabs in the 2018 race either way. His legal issues are seen as possibly allowing the GOP to take the seat next year no matter what happens now.

Speaking as an outsider? I think Menendez, even if convicted, should hold on to the seat until the next Governor is inaugurated. This allows the people to indirectly decide who gets the seat. It would also be karma for what the GOP did to Garland.

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http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/25/politics/graham-cassidy-health-care-status/index.html

Susan Collins has officially come out as a no on Graham-Cassidy.

Assuming McCain and Paul dig their heels in, the bill is as good as dead. We'll know for sure this Friday, when the deadline finally hits.

Murkowski hasn't given her opinion just yet, but it wouldn't be surprising if she echoes Collins' concerns about its spending cuts.

Meanwhile, Cruz, Lee, and other conservatives may jump ship now that it's politically convenient; with no real chance of passage, it's a good time for conservative posturing. A self-fulfilling prophecy.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/25/politics/senate-republican-daca-bill/index.html

GOP Senators have floated a DACA replacement bill. Rather than the bipartisan DREAM Act, the SUCCEED Act serves to appeal to conservative tastes. It would allow most DACA recipients to remain in the country, with renewable five year permits, and they could receive citizenship after 15 years. The catch to legal residency is they must avoid a criminal record and cannot sponsor relatives until they become citizens. The bill also seeks to tighten visas to prevent overstaying, and many Republicans are calling for border security measures to avoid a similar situation in the future.

Whether a moderate or right wing bill, things are looking up for the Dreamers.

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This pretty much sums up my frustration with this issue on "respecting the flag"

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Far as I can tell, were not in China, or NK, so demanding people stand and salute goes against what our country is built on 

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http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/26/obamacare-repeal-failure-republican-senate-243148

Cassidy-Graham is officially dead for now. The GOP leadership have decided a vote won't be held.

Work will "continue" on healthcare plans, but tax reform looks to be what takes front stage from now on.

Given the amount of time tax reform is likely to take and the fact the midterm elections will eat up a lot of time next year, it will likely be a while before healthcare gets a real focus again.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/25/obamacare-repeal-republicans-budget-243125

The GOP is still debating making healthcare policy part of the 2018 budget, however, so as to reach the 50 vote margin under a new reconciliation bill.

Meanwhile, Democrats who don't have their heads up their posterior are putting forth new proposals.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/07/murphy-democrats-rising-star-healthcare-bernie-sanders-242455

While Sanders' single payer bill is likely to go nowhere for a decade plus, Senator Chris Murphy is working on introducing legislation that would create a Medicare buy-in for all Americans. In addition, Senator Brian Schatz is going to introduce a law that would let all Americans buy Medicaid insurance, but it would be up to each state to opt-in due to the heavily federalized nature of Medicaid.

All three policies promise improvement on the current Obamacare system by helping solve the problem of those who do not buy insurance or providing options to people in rural areas that have seen a contraction of insurance providers.

Due to Medicare's popularity and Medicaid's newfound popularity in the wake of the repeal efforts, both have a shot at gaining some bipartisan support. In addition, getting large numbers of people on government insurance plans would pave the way for single payer by making people comfortable with the idea.

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http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/26/alabama-senate-results-strange-moore-243175

With half the votes counted, the Alabama primary has been called for far right, anti-establishment candidate Roy Moore, who is leading Luther Strange by 14 points. Luther Strange is the first incumbent Senator to be primaried since 2012.

The bad news is that Moore is a far right loon, as has been discussed. The good news is this is a humiliation for Mitch McConnell and Trump, and the GOP establishment in general.

Mixed news is that this is likely to inspire other candidates to attempt primary challenges against GOP incumbents going into next year. The good side is that will sap the GOP's financial resources and quite possibly divide the midterm vote to a point Democrats have stronger gains. The bad side is we'll quite possibly see an increase in far right members of Congress, expanding the Freedom Caucus' power; combine this with the likelihood most Democratic House gains will come from wiping out the moderates in the GOP, and you can see how this might harm things. On the plus side, a divided GOP will be unable to maximize its gains against the Democrats in the Senate.

We'll see where things go.

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/245587-annette-taddeo-special-election

In good news, the Democrats have flipped a Florida Senate seat from the GOP by a few points. The Democrats now have 16 seats to the GOP's 24. There are 4 other seats seen as competitive (won by less than 10 points) that the GOP holds, which will be targets in the 2018 midterms. Unlike most upper houses, there is no tiebreaking officer in the Florida Senate, so a 20-20 body will rely heavily on negotiation.

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All these Dem flips are making me wonder if Trump and the deterioration of the GOP is leaving people just that tired of right-wing politics.

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The funny thing about the Moore-Strange race is that Moore is far more Trumpian than Strange ever was, which leads me to believe that either Trump has been completely mislead on the candidates' stances (you'd think he'd be a strong Moore supporter), doesn't give two shits about either man either way and is just going with the guy who'll play better in the media, or that he only supported Strange as a favor to McConnell to sweeten him up on some Trump agenda item or other.

More far-right GOP politicians on the national political scene is going to mean one or maybe two things:

1. A ramping up of nationalistic, racist, bigoted or otherwise hateful legislative agendas abhorrent to most "normal" people. Hopefully this will lead to more young voters becoming more engaged in the political life of the nation, in order to prevent these agendas from being passed into law.

2. A much more tangible Republican civil war. Up to now, the Freedom Caucus, Tea Party and their ilk have been a real thorn in the establishment's side, no doubt about it, and their support is even now vital to legislative success. However, the establishment has never been threatened with being outright replaced, at least not for a very long time. With greater numbers, potentially much greater, the establishment is suddenly in very real danger of being overthrown. 

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14 minutes ago, Dizcrybe said:

All these Dem flips are making me wonder if Trump and the deterioration of the GOP is leaving people just that tired of right-wing politics.

It's turnout. Angry Dems are just making a point to vote in what are normally low turnout affairs, hence why we're seeing a flip rate of about 25%.

In higher turnout races like the Montana and Georgia House races, the GOP held on, even if it did lose an average of 10 percentage points since the previous race between the two of them.

We can expect results similar to that next year. Going by previous electoral results, that means Democrats will make gains, but not enough to flip either chamber. On the other hand, this year's special elections have mostly been open seats, which are easier to take. This bodes well for the Governorship at least: since most GOP Governors took power in the 2010 wave, most are also term-limited next year, meaning Democrats have an enormous advantage there.

A lot of the Democrats' 2018 performance will hinge on which seats are open and if Trump's approval slumps again.

Or the extremely likely odds of a recession in the next few years. We're at the level of unemployment before the recession hit back in 2008. Which means we're about to see a contraction that's likely to last several years, and possibly render Trump a one termer.

Virginia is the next big test this November, as it will no doubt see higher turnout comparable to a midterm with how much hype it's been receiving. We can use that to get an idea where the country's headed next November.

11 minutes ago, Patticus said:

The funny thing about the Moore-Strange race is that Moore is far more Trumpian than Strange ever was, which leads me to believe that either Trump has been completely mislead on the candidates' stances, doesn't give two shits about either man either way, or that he only supported Strange as a favor to McConnell to sweeten him up on some Trump agenda item or other.

Trump has hinted that he preferred Moore, even "joking" that backing Strange may have been the wrong pick. It was ultimately a favor to the GOP establishment, certainly.

Kelly most likely had a hand in it too, since he's the only member of the White House with a brain.

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More far-right GOP politicians on the national political scene is going to mean one or maybe two things:

1. A ramping up of nationalistic, racist, bigoted or otherwise hateful legislative agendas abhorrent to most "normal" people.

2. A much more tangible Republican civil war. Up to now, the Freedom Caucus, Tea Party and their ilk have been a real thorn in the establishment's side, no doubt about it, and their support is even now vital to legislative success. However, the establishment has never been threatened with being outright replaced, at least not for a very long time. With greater numbers, potentially much greater, the establishment is suddenly in very real danger of being overthrown. 

It's certainly going to be a Hell of a primary season, and a hell of an election, I think.

I'm particularly interested to see if Doug Jones can win Alabama in the Senate general election this December. Given he's only just barely behind Moore, and Moore may very well alienate some moderate Republicans, Jones has decent odds of pulling off an upset. Especially if Democrats make a point to turnout while Republicans consider it a foregone conclusion.

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Apparently buoyed by his success in Alabama, Steve Bannon is looking to replicate that win with a string of them next year, and will be traveling around the country a lot between now and then. He's off to the western states soon to meet with potential candidates. Notable targets of his include now-retiring Sen. Bob Corker (who may have worried about being Strange'd next year and thought it better to avoid that possible humiliation), as well as Jeff Flake and, perhaps indirectly, Mitch McConnell. I hope he fails, because his is a deeply toxic worldview. Then again though, so is McConnell's.

Entire tweet thread below:

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1/ The man who commissioned Steele's dossier—and stands by its accuracy—has now given more hours of testimony to Congress than any witness.

2/ While tying for most hours of questions with Page (10; Mueller) of any probe witness, Simpson has so far been found to have told 0 lies.

3/ All investigations—House Intel, Senate Intel, Special Counsel—are now said to be taking the dossier's allegations "extremely seriously."

4/ Bob Mueller has begun *locating Steele's clandestine sources*, and one of those sources is now *regularly providing evidence to the FBI*.

5/ The conclusion of the British press—which has researched the dossier *much* more than ours—is "many of its claims have been proven true."

6/ The Independent implies all 3 U.S. investigations concur with the conclusion that "many of [the dossier's] claims have been proven true."

7/ All 3 U.S. investigations are now *actively* seeking to have Steele travel to the United States to testify in person about his dossier.

8/ A secret trip Trump agents made to find Steele is now seen by both Dems and Mueller as an effort to intimidate Steele out of testifying.

9/ Implied in Trump using Nunes (again) to thwart the Russia probe is that Trump believes Steele's dossier and his testimony could hurt him.

10/ Those few Republicans willing to talk to Steele hope to use him to hurt *Comey*—protecting Trump from an impeachable Obstruction charge.

11/ Far from working only on retainer, Steele in fact gave his research gratis to the FBI last summer due to his concern about its contents.

12/ The Independent implies Mueller's suspicion of—and his knowledge about—Manafort's illicit activities was partly provided by the dossier.

13/ Paul Manafort *confirmed to Roger Stone* that he expects to be indicted over allegations identical to the ones made in Steele's dossier.

14/ Steele's dossier is so good—its intel so ahead of the curve—even the FBI has taken *15 months* to catch up and see its leads bear fruit.

15/ The quality of Steele's sources is now becoming known—there are reports sources "D and E" are both Belarusan businessman Sergei Millain.

16/ Sources with "inside knowledge of the Steele report" say Felix Sater—a criminal and Trump business partner—is *also* a Steele informant.

17/ Sater—who by his own admission acted as a go-between between Putin and Trump—can with some certainty sink Trump if he *is* an informant.

18/ Mueller has hired the *very same prosecutor* who *previously* turned Sater into an informant—suggesting it may well have happened again.

19/ Sater's currently "helping federal authorities" on a money laundering case that may involve Trump—linking the Trump and Manafort probes.

20/ THE INDEPENDENT: "Claims Trump was the 'Muscovian Candidate' for the presidency—raised by Mr. Steele—continue to grow and reverberate."

PS/ The only "theory" this feed ever indulges is that Steele's dossier is "at least 80% accurate." That looks to be an *understatement* now.

PS3/ Despite threats on his life and the life of his family, Steele has *never* backed down from a *single word* of his (GOP-paid) research.

PS4/ What Steele *has* said is raw intel must always be double-checked—which is exactly why he gave his work directly (for free) to the FBI.

PS5/ The FBI double-checked—and now uses Steele's sources, follows his leads to indictments, and takes his work "extremely seriously." {end}

In short, the now-infamous Steele Dossier is almost certainly 100% true (having been verified by the FBI and the diligent work of some in the British press), is being taken extremely seriously by every US investigation, and the intelligence provided therein is going to be the basis of at least one indictment - that of Paul Manafort, Trump's former campaign manager. Trump has already evidently sent "agents" to try to intimidate Steele from testifying, which will probably look like a very guilty move to investigators, and his Putin go-between Felix Sater is probably an informant.

Don't expect treason charges all around, though. I mean, they had to get Al Capone on tax evasion charges, not all the murders. Expect similarly seemingly unrelated charges across the board here - failure to declare this, money that, etc.

 

Meanwhile, evidence is emerging of the scale of Russia's social media operations:

Russian-funded Facebook ads backed Stein, Sanders and Trump: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/27/business/media/paul-horner-dead-fake-news.html
Russian-bought Black Lives Matter ad on Facebook targeted Baltimore and Ferguson: http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/27/media/facebook-black-lives-matter-targeting/index.html

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"What we see over and over again is that a lot of the messaging isn't about politics, a specific politician, or political parties," Laura Rosenberger, director of the Alliance for Securing Democracy, said. "It's about creating societal division, identifying divisive issues, and fanning the flames."

For example, Twitter has suspended several accounts this week believed to be linked to Russia that pushed out messages both for and against football players kneeling during the national anthem, which was viewed as an attempt to divide Americans.

Example:

Meanwhile, Paul Horner, the fake news writer who took credit for Trump's victory, has died at 38: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/27/business/media/paul-horner-dead-fake-news.html

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“My sites were picked up by Trump supporters all the time,” he told The Post. “I think Trump is in the White House because of me. His followers don’t fact-check anything — they’ll post everything, believe anything. His campaign manager posted my story about a protester getting paid $3,500 as fact. Like, I made that up. I posted a fake ad on Craigslist.”

In 2013, one of his articles stating that President Obama would use his money to open a Muslim culture museum was apparently so convincing that Fox News reported on it.

 

Russia is playing Americans off against each other, sewing division and mistrust in each other and our democratic institutions. Classic divide and conquer strategy. Their endeavor in 2016 to forever tarnish the world's (and America's own) view of American democracy was incredibly far-reaching, and it's not over; it is ongoing. This is the face of the New Cold War in the west.

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http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/353162-health-secretary-tom-price-resigns

Health Secretary Tom Price has resigned amid the controversy regarding his private jet usage.

No replacements named yet, but it's expected to be a hell of a fight after the Obamacare repeal fight placing emphasis on healthcare.

It'd be nice if Murkowski, Collins, and McCain joined forces to put a moderate in that seat.

Extra points if Trump appoints a Senator to the post; that would most likely force a special election and grant Democrats another Senate seat pickup opportunity.

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13 hours ago, Patticus said:

Russia is playing Americans off against each other, sewing division and mistrust in each other and our democratic institutions. Classic divide and conquer strategy. Their endeavor in 2016 to forever tarnish the world's (and America's own) view of American democracy was incredibly far-reaching, and it's not over; it is ongoing. This is the face of the New Cold War in the west.

Well the fabric of America has been unraveling for quite a while, no thanks to the tears caused by infighting and the slow shredding of decency and equality in the name of egomania and prejudice.

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So the Mayor of San Juan, who has been seen wading through water with a bullhorn to help get people out of their homes, is a "poor" leader. The people of Puerto Rico, largely people of color, want "everything done for them." And because the Mayor is critiquing federal efforts, she's a puppet of the Democrats and fake news (also slammed in the same tirade).

A baby as usual to any sort of criticism, but the way he's attacking her when he's stuck at a luxury golf course speaks about class, race, and leadership on so many levels. Can we drop the T and U every time we refer to him as the POTUS?

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What a piece of shit.

Every time you think he couldn't be more of a piece of shit, he does just that.

And the fact Congress still won't do anything is just disgusting.

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I mean Trump already knows who he's trying to win over, he's done trying to get dems,progressives and millennials, but still....damn dude. What a fucking tool. And his supporters are even worse for encouraging it 

I mean Trump already knows who he's trying to win over, he's done trying to get dems,progressives and millennials, but still....damn dude. What a fucking tool. And his supporters are even worse for encouraging it 

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