The General 'Murican Politics Thread

[SenEDDtor Missile]

So most of them are supporters of taking from the poor and giving to the rich. Good to know that fasting is in my future, although Starbucks and Subways are at least still options. I might try Panera Bread though.

[Dizcrybe]

*is immensely glad Pizza Hut does not show up anywhere on that list*

[Neon Zephyr]

4 hours ago, Lord Bergamo (Ogilvie) said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lauriebennett/2012/07/23/red-plate-blue-plate-fast-food-by-political-persuasion/#154b26e27064

This article is from 2012. A lot can change in 5 years. Is there something more recent? 

Also, sorry Dizcrybe, Pizza Hut is on there. They're under Yum! Brands, which when mostly Republican in 2012's cycle. 

[Tani Coyote]

https://www.eater.com/2016/2/8/10904984/restaurant-PACS-political-donations

This one's useful. It lets you break down contributions by as a whole, PACs, CEOs, and employees.

When it comes to employees, the blue brands are Chipotle, Starbucks, Applebee's, IHOP, and Dunkin' Donuts.

Surprisingly, even employees still lean Republican. Likely due to management counting as employees and having the spare cash to donate.

Either way, what we've seen in special elections holds true for restaurant politics: while Trump alienated a lot of Republicans from the Presidential ticket, Republicans have stayed Republican pretty much everywhere else. No company or district is going to suddenly turn blue just because he's around. He's seen as an exception, not the rule.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/05/politics/wapo-abc-poll-nov-5/index.html

Trump's approval has broken its previous low. A recent poll found it at 37% approval and 59% disapproval (50% disapprove strongly).

His honeymoon period is also clearly over, with huge drops in optimism from previous polls:

Quote

Prior to his inauguration, 61% thought he'd do an excellent or good job on the economy, while only 44% feel he is doing that well now. Fifty-six percent expected he'd do good work dealing with terrorism, while only 43% say he is doing so now. Expectations on his handling of race relations have dropped 12%; on improving the health care system, they've dropped by 18%.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/05/politics/pelosi-tax-reform-sotu-cnntv/index.html

Nancy Pelosi has spoken out against the GOP tax plan. She says it will get rid of SALT deductions for ordinary Americans while giving tax incentives to companies to relocate overseas. Finally, the GOP's interested in rushing it.

Here's hoping McCain's call for "regular order" comes true again and he delivers the killing blow to Trump's major policy item once more.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/05/upshot/upshot-siena-poll-gives-democrat-narrow-lead-in-virginia-governors-race.html

Despite Ralph Northam's dumb remarks the other night, he still maintains a lead of 3% over Republican Ed Gillespie. However, with 17% of voters undecided, the race remains uncertain. Undecided voters are more concentrated in black, Hispanic and Asian groups, so Northam might end up with a narrow lead there as well.

It all boils down to who turns out on Tuesday.

[Dizcrybe]

10 hours ago, Neon Zephyr said:

This article is from 2012. A lot can change in 5 years. Is there something more recent? 

Also, sorry Dizcrybe, Pizza Hut is on there. They're under Yum! Brands, which when mostly Republican in 2012's cycle. 

dammit all

[KHCast]

Everything I enjoy is republican Jesus fucking Christ. Businesses really seem to feel like republican is what gets them the big bucks.:/

 Wonder if the game industry leans republican as well. I mean the movie industry despite its "progesssive" outer core has time and time again supported republican ideology and even a lot of the big names are apparently friends with trump. The game industry I wouldn't be surprised if it was similar. LOOKS progressive, but really it's just looks over substance.

Oh, also 

Little ceasers even if it "plays both sides" ain't nearly as shit.

[Dizcrybe]

Why do restaurants even have PACs, anyway? What, if you take money from Wall Street, you're evil, but nobody cares if McDonald's sends you a few million bucks?

6 minutes ago, KHCast said:

Wonder if the game industry leans republican as well.

Given the shitstorm that was that hashtag on Twitter, it wouldn't surprise me.

[KHCast]

1 hour ago, Lord Bergamo (Ogilvie) said:

Starbucks

Yeah I'm not surprised in the least by this given how many "controversies" republicans whine about regarding them lol

[Dizcrybe]

Plus Starbucks' consumer base more or less consists of young people that work/live in the city.

[KHCast]

2 minutes ago, Dizcrybe said:

Plus Starbucks' consumer base more or less consists of young people that work/live in the city.

I always thought the "hip" thing now for young people was to find indie coffee shops in big cities. Though either way yeah given how they try to industrialize within the city and keep up to date with relavent issues, and have been very vocal about their acceptance of minorities and equal opportunity.

[Tani Coyote]

Of course it's relevant to remember a lot of young and working class people aren't really that left, just kind of being trendy with it. There's often a lack of holistic leftism: for example, a love of "all-natural" products like Fiji Water, even though said water is taken in a colonial arrangement from the people of Fiji.

Or the love of free healthcare and free education but the sudden resistance when it becomes apparent tax raises are part of the picture. Or the belief capitalism can be "fixed" as opposed to replaced outright.

Never mind there's often traces of a white savior mentality, which pervades both sides of the aisle.

[SSF1991]

2 hours ago, Lord Bergamo (Ogilvie) said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/05/upshot/upshot-siena-poll-gives-democrat-narrow-lead-in-virginia-governors-race.html

 

Despite Ralph Northam's dumb remarks the other night, he still maintains a lead of 3% over Republican Ed Gillespie. However, with 17% of voters undecided, the race remains uncertain. Undecided voters are more concentrated in black, Hispanic and Asian groups, so Northam might end up with a narrow lead there as well.

It all boils down to who turns out on Tuesday.

God dammit I hate this uncertainty...my anxiety gets worse with every passing day because of this election.

[Neon Zephyr]

2 hours ago, Lord Bergamo (Ogilvie) said:

https://www.eater.com/2016/2/8/10904984/restaurant-PACS-political-donations

Ah, cool cool. Good to know! Thanks, mate!!

(And I didn't mean to imply the other source wasn't reliable. Apologies for coming across as aggressive; I had hoped a few companies had become more blue over the course of Obama's second term. I'm a little bummed they didn't.)

Part of me just wants it to be the 8th already.

[Tani Coyote]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/06/politics/northam-governor-virginia/index.html

CNN did a piece on why Northam is a moron. It raises the concern that if Northam loses, we'll see a brand new "but Bernie could have won!" sort of game, since Northam defeated someone more progressive in the primaries.

What's really eyeroll-worthy about this whole thing is that at a time when the GOP is salivating at the idea of repealing Obamacare, Northam isn't pushing Medicaid expansion more. Instead he seems to be going the Clinton route where he's so sure of victory he's become clumsy with what remarks he makes.

Tomorrow night is likely to be very tense.

 

[Dizcrybe]

Yeah, I'm gonna call it and say Northam's done for. I'd love to be proven wrong, but I don't see this going any other way.

[SSF1991]

31 minutes ago, Lord Bergamo (Ogilvie) said:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/06/politics/northam-governor-virginia/index.html

Tomorrow night is likely to be very tense.

Tomorrow night? It has been very tense for me for months. I live in this state. This will impact mine and the lives of other Virginians more than, perhaps, even Trump and Congress' crap does. I really feel like this is 2016 all over again. On the plus side, at least the wait wouldn't be as long. Even if Ed wins, he'd be in office for only 3 years.

Oh god, that means that the next Virginia elections will be happening in 2020. The same year Trump would be up for re-election.

OH GOD WHY...

[Tani Coyote]

1 minute ago, SSF1991 said:

Tomorrow night? It has been very tense for me for months. I live in this state. This will impact mine and the lives of other Virginians more than, perhaps, even Trump and Congress' crap does. I really feel like this is 2016 all over again. On the plus side, at least the wait wouldn't be as long. Even if Ed wins, he'd be in office for only 3 years.

Oh god, that means that these Virginia elections will be happening in 2020. The same year Trump would be up for re-election.

OH GOD WHY...

Hmm?

The Virginia Governorship is elected every 4 years. So the next race would be in 2021. I'm not finding any change in the Constitution that would make the next election be 2020.

On the other hand, that's the real downer in Virginia's races: it's entirely possible that even if Democrats pull off a miracle tomorrow and capture both the House and Governorship, they won't be able to redistrict before the 2022 US House races. The Governor and legislature elected in 2021 might do it instead.

[SSF1991]

Oh wait, no, you're right. It is 2021. I derped. lol

Still, it doesn't make me feel any less nervous.

[Tani Coyote]

The main plus in all this is midterms put wind in the opposition's sales. That's why the GOP were so quick to gerrymander just about everything before Obama's term was up and a Republican was in office.

So Northam's likely to achieve victory on an anti-Trump wave if nothing else, but that's exactly the Democrats' problem. They shouldn't need a Republican in the White House to convince their base to turn out.

[Tani Coyote]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/06/politics/trump-approval/index.html

Closer analysis at Trump's falling numbers. His support from independents has dropped from 44% to 32%. He's gone from 8 to 5 percent approval among Democrats, and 85 to 86 percent approval among Republicans.

Education reveals a strange trend. Non-college-educated whites have seen a drop from 59 to 46%. Colleged-educated whites have seen an increase from 38 to 42% approval.

Non-white approval has fallen from 29% to 18%.

The main point of the article is that while Trump remains fairly popular among most people who voted for him, he's lost ground everywhere else. A gradual chipping away the crucial independent, working class white, and disaffected Democrat votes make re-election a tossup.

It's key to remember it was a for-sure thing Truman would lose re-election, however. It all comes down to turnout and who the opponent is. In Truman's case, the Republican opponent was lazy and didn't really bother campaigning, because it was a "for sure" thing that the unpopular Truman would lose. Yes, history really does repeat itself.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/06/politics/temporary-protected-status-tps-nicaragua-terminated/index.html

The Department of Homeland Security has begun ending the protected status of refugees from Central America. In a similar vein to DACA, it says the ball is in Congress' court as to what to do with those affected. In the case of Nicaragua, the strict constant residency terms of the refugee status have made beneficiaries stay here for 20 years, putting them in a position very close to that of the Dreamers. Nicaraguan recipients have 12 months to find alternative residency options or leave the country, after which point they will become undocumented and subject to deportation.

The Trump administration is aggressively reviewing protected status for each country, and is overall either revoking protections for refugees or putting them under strong review.

 

[Patticus]

So, uh, how bout that Russian collusion, eh?

Quote

What did Donald Trump Jr. ask for at that meeting? The Russian lawyer just spoke out.

Bloomberg Politics has just published a remarkable interview with the Russian lawyer who famously met with President Trump’s son, son-in-law and campaign chairman at Trump Tower in June 2016. There are a number of lingering questions about the account, and healthy skepticism about the messenger and her message is certainly warranted.

However, this is a notable moment, because it would appear to constitute a direct allegation that Donald Trump Jr. actively requested Russian assistance in harming Hillary Clinton, as opposed to having been merely receptive to such assistance.

The Bloomberg reporters interviewed the Russian lawyer, Natalia Veselnitskaya, in Moscow for 2½ hours. She claims that Donald Trump Jr. — who attended the meeting with Jared Kushner and Paul Manafort — said that if Trump won, he’d be open to pushing for changes to a U.S. law that targets Russian officials. That is interesting, because it alleges that Donald Trump Jr. offered to be more friendly with Russia in exchange for potential assistance with the campaign. But there’s also this:

Quote

Veselnitskaya also said Trump Jr. requested financial documents showing that money that allegedly evaded U.S. taxes had gone to Clinton’s campaign. She didn’t have any and described the 20-minute meeting as a failure.

Donald Trump Jr.’s lawyer did not deny the claims, instead declining to comment. Now, Veselnitskaya is not a particularly trustworthy character, and it should be stressed that by her account, she did not furnish any such documents. But in the email chain that leaked in July, Donald Trump Jr. was offered “official documents and information that would incriminate” Hillary Clinton and would be “very useful to your father,” as part of the Russian “government’s support for Mr. Trump.” Donald Trump Jr. expressed an eagerness to access this information. It’s not clear why the information was promised but then did not materialize, and this, too, is grounds for caution about her account. But it is at least potentially significant that Veselnitskaya is now claiming that at this meeting, Donald Trump Jr. actively requested the information.

It should also be noted that Veselnitskaya has claimed she was not acting in concert with the Russian government. But the New York Times has reported that she appeared to be operating off a set of talking points very similar to those of a senior Russian official, undercutting the idea that she was operating independently.

More at the link.

This, of course, may not be enough to lead to charges being filed against anybody, but it does fit directly into the broader narrative that saw multiple Trump campaign officials, associates and family members seeking the assistance of a hostile foreign power during the 2016 election campaign. A Faustian Bargain, to be sure.

And then just yesterday, Carter Page, foreign policy adviser to the Trump campaign, testified...

Quote

Trump adviser sent email describing ‘private conversation’ with Russian official

Carter Page, a foreign policy adviser to President Trump’s campaign whose visit to Moscow during the election has drawn scrutiny, sent an email to fellow Trump aides during his trip describing “a private conversation” with a senior Russian official who spoke favorably of the Republican candidate, according to records released late Monday by congressional investigators.

Page also wrote that he had been provided “incredible insights and outreach” by Russian lawmakers and “senior members” of Russian President Vladi­mir Putin’s administration during the trip.

The email appeared to contradict earlier statements by Page, who had said he had only exchanged brief greetings with the senior Russian official, Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, after he delivered a speech at a Russian university.

In his July 2016 note, Page wrote that Dvorkovich had “expressed strong support for Mr. Trump and a desire to work together toward devising better solutions in response to a vast range of current international problems.”

...

Page requested that the committee make the transcript of his remarks public.

Page’s testimony shows that a number of Trump campaign officials were aware of his plans to travel to Moscow before he left — and that he updated others on his return.

He told the committee that he informed then-Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), then a key Trump supporter and now attorney general, and said he “probably” had told national campaign co-chairman Sam Clovis before leaving and definitely did so on his return.

A spokeswoman for Sessions declined to comment; Clovis’s attorney did not immediately respond to a request for comment Monday night.

In one email to fellow campaign aides, Page suggested that Trump perhaps take his place and travel to Moscow “to raise the temperature a little bit” and, in another, he asked how campaign officials would “prefer me to focus” his remarks.

He said he was unaware at the time that Papadopoulos was making similar proposals for Trump to travel to Russia, though he acknowledged he had received some of Papadopoulos’s emails about Russia.

More at the Link. Perhaps more interesting things, but I don't have time to quote and comment.

It's not looking at all good on the "NO COLLUSION" front these days, is it? Jeff Sessions is revealed to have committed perjury, multiple Trump associates and family members reaching out to Russia, campaign leadership (Hope Hicks, Lewandowski etc) knowing about it and lying about it. One wonders what manner of "kompromat" the Russians might have on Trump, Sessions etc, for them to be seemingly so eager to work with them. There must be something being held over their heads, because Russian intelligence is easily the most pro-active and arguably the best in the world these days.

 

Oh and what's this about Mueller having 17 sealed indictments ready to go?

[Tani Coyote]

To be honest, I'd actually be happy if Mueller somehow dinged Clinton on something.

Just because it would force the MAGA people to question the idea that the legal system is suddenly a vast left wing conspiracy. It would likewise rob Trump and several Republicans of claims the investigation is biased, a witchhunt, etc.

These people never questioned the legal system before. They never went so far as to call the media fake as opposed to biased. They never felt we needed to postpone elections because of electoral fraud.

It really speaks to a severe cognitive dissonance when one believes Trump is never wrong, even when he goes against views one held in the past.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/07/politics/mayoral-races-2017/index.html

Rundown of the many city elections being held today.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/07/politics/virginia-new-jersey-brownstein-election-day/index.html

Analysis of today's races.

It omits two key votes today: the Washington State Senate could possibly be retaken by the Democrats since it hinges on a single special election in a swing district, and Maine might end up legalizing the Medicaid expansion that the Governor has vetoed 5 times.

 

[SSF1991]

The polls here in Virginia close in approximately an hour and a half.

I'm so scared right now.

[Tani Coyote]

http://www.pressherald.com/2017/11/07/turnout-steady-as-voters-head-for-polls/

In good news, turnout has been much higher than expected for Maine's ballot questions.

The Medicaid expansion ballot initiative seems to be the primary driver, with lots of people interviewed indicating support. In addition, Democratic early ballots are more than double Republican ballots, pushing the initiative closer to passage.

http://wjhl.com/2017/11/07/turnout-up-in-virginias-closely-watched-race/

As for Virginia, turnout is also up. There's 60,000 more early ballots than thee were in 2013's race, an increase of 50%. Fairfax County reported a turnout of 31% as of 2 PM.

Early ballots tend to trend Democrat, so there's that.

Can the Democrats pull off a miracle and flip the Virginia House? We'll just have to see.

[Patticus]

All I can think right now is that the results of these elections are going to be parsed and analysed ad nauseam for weeks to come, and it's going to be a big distraction from whatever crap Trump wants to do next.

The Democrats are a shoe-in for a New Jersey win, right?