The General 'Murican Politics Thread

[SSF1991]

My hope is that the arrival of Jones to the Senate will further minimize Trump and the GOPs ability to carry out their agenda. The mid-term campaigning season should also make it more difficult for Congress to get anything done.

I hate that this tax bill's going to pass. But at least the good news is that they had the opportunity to screw with a lot of other things and screwed it all up. Other than a handful of executive orders, and likely this tax bill, the GOP really doesn't have much to point to. I knew they were going to get something through, and it was only a matter of time. What I didn't expect is how little they managed to accomplish. The courts have been absolutely beautiful. The Supreme Court, despite its division, hasn't really been of much influence so far.

I really hope Congress turns blue and stays there in 2018. Who knows? Maybe Trump will be out of office by then. it's pretty clear that this investigation on Russia is not going away. And it's very possible that Trump is in trouble. We'll see. All I know is this: I do not know how Trump is going to win a second term. Unless Hillary decides to run again, but she's already said that's not going to happen.

Hopefully the tax bill doesn't wreck the damn economy, hopefully Net Neutrality will be saved, and hopefully Democrats will be able to put a stop to it before its damage is really felt. The GOP has made it clear that they are not changing any time soon.

In the meantime, I just want a damn break from this shit so I can look forward to Christmas. One more week of Congressional work, and I can at least take a breather for the holidays. This has been a long year.

[Dizcrybe]

About the investigation not going away:

[8ther]

Is there anything that could prevent them from derailing the investigation?

[SSF1991]

2 hours ago, Dizcrybe said:

About the investigation not going away:

Oh I'm already aware. Plus there's rumors that Trump will fire Mueller when Congress goes on recess, potentially next week, around December 22nd.

I don't think he realizes the consequences of that happening, but it is Trump we're talking about.

This could be the last straw for the Resistence. And it better be. They're already planning protests, just in case this happens.

[8ther]

21 minutes ago, SSF1991 said:

Oh I'm already aware. Plus there's rumors that Trump will fire Mueller when Congress goes on recess, potentially next week, around December 22nd.

I don't think he realizes the consequences of that happening, but it is Trump we're talking about.

This could be the last straw for the Resistence. And it better be. They're already planning protests, just in case this happens.

What consequences? congress will protect him, his supporters will praise him for it, and as we've seen with the tax bill and the net neutrality repeal, the GOP doesn't care if we protest.

[SSF1991]

50 minutes ago, CD Sanic said:

What consequences? congress will protect him, his supporters will praise him for it, and as we've seen with the tax bill and the net neutrality repeal, the GOP doesn't care if we protest.

There are some GOP congressmen that want Mueller to stay, especially in the Senate. And some don't want Trump to do it.

Whether that means anything...I guess we'll see.

EDIT: Just saw this Twitter thread from an attorney. It explains more about what Trump can and cannot do.

https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/942146451026608128

[Tani Coyote]

On the plus side.

The tax bill is going to destroy the insurance industry.

Because the GOP failed to repeal Obamacare's protections, and yet has gutted the two things that help insurance companies pay for the more expensive care - the subsidies and mandate - there is going to be absolute chaos in the wake of this bill. The government may be saving money by having fewer Medicaid recipients to pay for, but the private sector is going to be reeling from healthy patients saying "screw it."

The premiums' soaring is going to cause people who can afford them to become angry with the GOP, while the large numbers of people who are forced off the rolls by the prices will likewise be angry. The situation across America is likely to grow more desperate as insurance companies continue to shrink what areas they cover, if they don't go out of business entirely.

So as bad as this bill is... in the long run? It is likely to serve Democrats majorities and opportunities for the public option and single payer on a silver platter.

Enough voters are in the know to understand the GOP has all the cards. They cannot blame the Democrats for fallout from policies made on a party line.

All this, just to avoid including Democrats in the process.

Karma's a bitch, McConnell.

[Harkofthewaa]

Here's a stupid question regarding Net Neutrality from someone who knows little about politics and law: In a best case scenario where the lawsuits and such are successful in reversing the FCC vote and preserving NN, what's going to stop the A-Holes responsible for this mess from whining to Trump and getting him to sign an executive order to kill NN or worse?

[SSF1991]

1 hour ago, Lord Basil (Ogilvie) said:

On the plus side.

The tax bill is going to destroy the insurance industry.

Because the GOP failed to repeal Obamacare's protections, and yet has gutted the two things that help insurance companies pay for the more expensive care - the subsidies and mandate - there is going to be absolute chaos in the wake of this bill. The government may be saving money by having fewer Medicaid recipients to pay for, but the private sector is going to be reeling from healthy patients saying "screw it."

The premiums' soaring is going to cause people who can afford them to become angry with the GOP, while the large numbers of people who are forced off the rolls by the prices will likewise be angry. The situation across America is likely to grow more desperate as insurance companies continue to shrink what areas they cover, if they don't go out of business entirely.

I don't really see how that's a good thing, regardless of who is blamed and the political fallout from it. People need this insurance. And there could even be people dying from this.

That concerns me greatly.

[Tani Coyote]

http://www.whsv.com/content/news/Republican-still-the-winner-of-northern-Virginia-delegate-race-after-recount-464215143.html

First of the 4 Virginia recounts has concluded. The Republican's margin increased by 7, and the Democrat's by 14. The seat remains Republican.

There are three more next week - 2 Republican and 1 Democrat; the most interesting one is the seat decided for the GOP by 10 votes. There's another where a lawsuit is in progress to hold a new election because hundreds of ballots were wrongly received.

The tight 51-49 majority means this will be interesting to watch.

7 hours ago, SSF1991 said:

I don't really see how that's a good thing, regardless of who is blamed and the political fallout from it. People need this insurance. And there could even be people dying from this.

That concerns me greatly.

It's a silver lining.

Everything could fall apart, and we get nothing in the end for it.

But no, instead, the GOP is ruining things so badly there's room for Democrats to push something radically different next time they are in power.

It would have been ideal to pass single payer WITHOUT needing absolute chaos in the healthcare market first, but that's the GOP for you.

If people die, it is on the GOP, not the Democrats. And that will be a talking point that can be used to crucify the GOP in the future.

When life gives you lemons, make lemonade, as it goes.

[KHCast]

9 hours ago, Lord Basil (Ogilvie) said:

If people die, it is on the GOP, not the Democrats. And that will be a talking point that can be used to crucify the GOP in the future.

Unless nothing comes from pointing the blame to them, moderates and conservatives still find ways to give them the benefit of the doubt, and the gop still remains apt in their morales and goals with little to make them think otherwise or make them feel nervous. Which so far has been the tune played whenever something controversial happens with them. We’ve had this optimistic hope for everything the gop does to ruin the country only for nothing to come from it or seemingly phase them as a whole. 

[Tani Coyote]

1 hour ago, KHCast said:

Unless nothing comes from pointing the blame to them, moderates and conservatives still find ways to give them the benefit of the doubt, and the gop still remains apt in their morales and goals with little to make them think otherwise or make them feel nervous. Which so far has been the tune played whenever something controversial happens with them. We’ve had this optimistic hope for everything the gop does to ruin the country only for nothing to come from it or seemingly phase them as a whole. 

A solid chunk of Trump voters have said they would not vote for him again.

If America was hopelessly Republican, we wouldn't be constantly switching party control every few years.

Congress has an abysmal approval rating that makes Trump's look rosy.

It's easy to be pessimistic and say "nothing will change," but the numbers just do not support that. It's very likely the impressive Democratic gains in Alabama and Virginia will bloom into a tidal wave next year.

[Tornado]

The GOP's very public attempts to rescind Obamacare without anything in place to actually replace it (ultimately putting it as a rider on a tax bill) aren't going to be so soon forgotten, either. A lot of these guys got in on the same "drain the swamp" sentiment that Trump did, some of them even dating back to the Tea Party nonsense where popular Republican incumbents lost their seats against upstarts because of vague ideas of "corruption". Even if the Obamacare thing doesn't blow up in their face to the extent Ogilvie mentions above, it's not good optics for how they got it passed regardless of if it is SOP for people in the legislature.

[SSF1991]

6 hours ago, Lord Basil (Ogilvie) said:

It's easy to be pessimistic and say "nothing will change," but the numbers just do not support that. It's very likely the impressive Democratic gains in Alabama and Virginia will bloom into a tidal wave next year.

It's not that I feel that things won't change. My home state of Virginia has already brought some.

It's the damage the GOP party will do in the meantime, what Trump will do while he's in office. It''s the concern that the Russia scandal will not actually result in Trump's impeachment/resignation, like say if Mueller really does get fired. It's the concern that we will be dealing with the GOP's mess for years to come, even if we somehow don't end up with a nuclear war (something that also scares me). And, most of all, it's the worry that this blue wave will be nothing more than a temporary thing and we'll be back to a GOP-controlled Congress in the next decade, starting the cycle all over again.

I'm scared of what will happen in the next 12 months. And I'm scared the relief will only be temporary.

[8ther]

In the event that trump fires Mueller(and Rosenstein as well seeing how he'll likely refuse to fire him) could it back fire on trump and the GOP?

[Tani Coyote]

12 hours ago, SSF1991 said:

It's not that I feel that things won't change.

The original quote was in response to a belief with no basis that the government will remain hopelessly Republican, though.

Quote

It's the damage the GOP party will do in the meantime, what Trump will do while he's in office.

Nothing much can be done about that, though. The original subject was on electoral blowback.

Quote

 

It''s the concern that the Russia scandal will not actually result in Trump's impeachment/resignation, like say if Mueller really does get fired.

It's not going to result in it no matter what it turns up.

Too many Republicans live in states where Trump has a hand in electoral support that it will be impossible to clinch the 67 seats in the Senate necessary to remove him.

My prediction: the same as the last two times it has happened, the House (after falling to the Democrats) will vote to impeach, but the removal vote will fall a few votes short in the Senate.

This assuming Mueller unveils things of apocalyptic proportions.

Trump will be running in 2020. He may not win the nomination, however. Which would basically guarantee the Democratic nominee wins the general election.

Quote

And, most of all, it's the worry that this blue wave will be nothing more than a temporary thing and we'll be back to a GOP-controlled Congress in the next decade, starting the cycle all over again.

For reasons detailed below... this is extremely likely.

Honorable exception to if Democrats use their gains next year to pave the way for future victories by breaking up GOP gerrymandering and rolling back voter suppression tactics.

In good news, the Baby Boomers will be supplanted by millennials next year. So if millennial turnout is steady, the GOP has to either shift left or lose relevance. We win either way.

Quote

I'm scared of what will happen in the next 12 months. And I'm scared the relief will only be temporary.

It will always be temporary, because the only reliable voting block is that made up of seniors. And their numbers are not adequate enough for either Party to claim permanent majority status.

Short of compulsory voting or a groundswell of activism that makes people turn out in similar numbers, politics will keep bouncing between the left and right for a while. It took crises like the Depression and Civil War to create dominant parties in the USA, and even those weren't foolproof, as the Presidency still rotated.

[KHCast]

10 minutes ago, Lord Basil (Ogilvie) said:

The original quote was in response to a belief with no basis that the government will remain hopelessly Republican, though.

That’s you making quite an assumption. It’s more that I simply feel the apathy and lack of real effort on the public’s end will result in more damage than good even if dems take the House/senate/presidency/etc. after this. That Society won’t truly realize until it’s too late since most seem to still try and avoid politics and isolate themselves into a reality where that doesn’t matter outside every 4 years when they need to vote. This society we live in is so random and scatterbrained I find it hard to give them to optimism and benefit of the doubt. There are people that vote republican just out of spite for Christ’s sake . Also I’d say public apathy constantly saving republicans asses to the point it’s almost a pattern is a legitimate basis for ones concern 

[Tani Coyote]

7 minutes ago, KHCast said:

That’s you making quite an assumption. It’s more that I simply feel the apathy and lack of real effort on the public’s end will result in more damage than good even if dems take the House/senate/presidency/etc. after this. That Society won’t truly realize until it’s too late since most seem to still try and avoid politics and isolate themselves into a reality where that doesn’t matter outside every 4 years when they need to vote.

If the Democrats manage to retake the House, Senate, and Presidency, that's an indicator that the people are in fact, not being apathetic and avoiding politics.

They will become apathetic once the Democrats are in power, most likely, this is true.

But this has been the pattern for the last several decades. Conservatives stay home when the President has an R next to their name, liberals stay home when the President has a D next to their name.

As a whole, the American people have a poor understanding of civics that makes it difficult to grasp all the nuances of politics and the various power even the smallest offices can have, which reduces turnout when the Presidency is not in play.

Consider the apocalypse the left predicted from the Trump Presidency. While things are bad, we seem to be chugging along relatively okay in spite of it. This is due to checks and balances and the many factions within the Republican Party, as well as the nature of federalism and separation of powers. These are factors that millions forgot existed that fateful night last November.

The system works as designed. Changes will generally take time.

[KHCast]

Just out of a hypothetical curiosity, let’s say dems apocalypse trump presidency was full force. Blacks were beaten and jailed daily by police with no legal concerns over them, abortions were banned, Muslims were no longer welcome here, the economy was in the shittiest position it’s been in since the Great Depression, Same sex marriage was banned again and open homosexual activity was illegal, women remained being treated like lessers to men in the work place, etc. would you still remain in this optimistic silver lining state of “things could be worse” vs “were in a shitty position”?

Granted admitting we’re in a horrible shit position doesn’t mean we can’t also fight for a better future and think things can get better. But being realistic and sometimes saying “wow. What the fuck is wrong with people” regarding certain things isn’t defeatism. It may come off like doom and gloom at times for me, but that naturally happens when incompetent regressive things happen and are pushed by leaders that want them to become a reality. It’s a genuine concern that we’re waiting until something massive happens that gets us to do something, when it may be too late by that point. I think we have the tools to change for the better, I think were in a unique position where we can fix this, I’m probably more optimistic than not, but even when we protest, it feels like as a society we’re not doing enough, or even anything at all. It’s concerning no matter what some try to say to reassure us as if there’s no option or scenario where the bad stuff will happen for real. Real stakes are at play. I fight like anyone, but I’m aware of the very real pushback as well, and don’t assume things will just correct themselves 

[8ther]

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/365406-trump-privately-calling-rosenstein-a-threat-to-his-presidency-report?amp&__twitter_impression=true

Looks like we’re in fact getting another Saturday Night Massacre 

Between this, the tax bill, and the NN repeal, the midterms are going to be hell for the GOP.

[Chili Dawg]

He's gonna do it isn't he... He's gonna try to  kill the investigation...

Our boy Mueller got Donny boy shook.

Dis gunna get ugly innit?

[Patticus]

The question is, if he kills Mueller's investigation, will he then proceed to destroy all the evidence that the said investigation has amassed? Because it'll be impossible to secure convictions without that.

[8ther]

3 hours ago, Lord Basil (Ogilvie) said:

They will become apathetic once the Democrats are in power, most likely, this is true.

But this has been the pattern for the last several decades. Conservatives stay home when the President has an R next to their name, liberals stay home when the President has a D next to their name.

As a whole, the American people have a poor understanding of civics that makes it difficult to grasp all the nuances of politics and the various power even the smallest offices can have, which reduces turnout when the Presidency is not in play.

A lot elections this year in places where democrats normally fair poorly have been near wins for democrats, could this be a sign the public is becoming more aware of how horrible the republic party really is? You said that baby boomers are being supplanted by millennials, could all this lead to the cycle being broken?

[Tani Coyote]

http://wvtf.org/post/house-delegates-control-grabs-three-recounts-scheduled-week

Tomorrow is the day when the election the GOP won by 10 votes will be recounted. If the Democrat ends up coming out ahead, the Virginia House will be split 50-50, leaving the Democrats with the Governorship, the Republicans the Senate, and both parties equal in standing in the House.

4 hours ago, KHCast said:

Just out of a hypothetical curiosity, let’s say dems apocalypse trump presidency was full force. Blacks were beaten and jailed daily by police with no legal concerns over them, abortions were banned, Muslims were no longer welcome here, the economy was in the shittiest position it’s been in since the Great Depression, Same sex marriage was banned again and open homosexual activity was illegal, women remained being treated like lessers to men in the work place, etc. would you still remain in this optimistic silver lining state of “things could be worse” vs “were in a shitty position”?

False dichotomy. I can believe in both. Saying "things could be worse" is only a problem when it is used to excuse not taking action to make things better.

My take is life can serve us a shit on a plate, so we need to find things that make it bearable, something to look forward to. What is your beef with that?

The tax bill is terrible and will hurt a lot of people, but in the end, it's at least likely to give us single payer. That isn't to say we cannot fight against the bill, just that given the current circumstances, it is going to pass, so we may as well try to find what's good about its passage.

The same way Trump's Presidency as a whole is awful, but it's also providing fertile ground for a Democratic comeback on par with 2006 and 2008.

4 hours ago, KHCast said:

I fight like anyone, but I’m aware of the very real pushback as well, and don’t assume things will just correct themselves 

Neither do I.

The reason things happen as I describe is because people fight back. Whether rank and file voters or politicians themselves.

The average voter is able to deduce that the government is doing a poor job handling things, just as the average politician knows going all in on the party line all the time is a good way to have a questionable political future.

48 minutes ago, CD Sanic said:

A lot elections this year in places where democrats normally fair poorly have been near wins for democrats, could this be a sign the public is becoming more aware of how horrible the republic party really is? You said that baby boomers are being supplanted by millennials, could all this lead to the cycle being broken?

Quite possibly, yes.

The Sanders campaign opened a groundswell of young left activism that I think even Obama (as a moderate) could not completely tap.

Now that single payer and free tuition have gained more mainstream acceptance, there's going to be a push for them.

My assumption is the GOP will see a rout, and after a few years, will begin to move left to try and woo more young voters.

I would not be surprised if the evangelical wing of the Party is increasingly marginalized in purple and blue states, when it becomes apparent younger voters are the more lucrative voting bloc.

[SSF1991]

22 minutes ago, Lord Basil (Ogilvie) said:

http://wvtf.org/post/house-delegates-control-grabs-three-recounts-scheduled-week

Tomorrow is the day when the election the GOP won by 10 votes will be recounted. If the Democrat ends up coming out ahead, the Virginia House will be split 50-50, leaving the Democrats with the Governorship, the Republicans the Senate, and both parties equal in standing in the House.

Man I thought the national Congress has been divided...