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Sonic 30th predictions

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1 hour ago, Plasme said:

I think it's a less a problem that the games are revealed too early and more that the marketing is absolutely dreadful. The marketing of Sonic Forces is probably the worst marketing of a game I have ever seen.

Are you implying that Hooters wasn't the best choice for a sponsor ever?

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Jack at Home said:

Okay, you are right. I don't want to underestimate SEGA and its resources. They are big... in Japan with its japanese franchises. However, we know Sonic is NOT popular in Japan. and Sonic has NOT sold well recently (talking about games, IDW and the movie are doing great). So at this point I'm not sure how much money SEGA is gonna spend on Sonic, but based on Forces, TSR, mostly their budget, I'm gonna say they don't want to spend much money because, there is no budget for Sonic anymore due to Sonic games not selling well in past years (Lost World, Boom, Forces, Mario & Sonic Tokyo, lots of flops), that's why budget for Sonic games will likely decrease. They will spend it on more successful franchises, in Japan. So I would personally expect smaller games at the moment.

See? Now I am the one being a pessimist, while in reality we are all just being realists.

It's just common logic, math.

IDW great sales = more comics and spin-offs

Movie great sales = sequels and higher budget

Games flops = smaller games with less resources

Which honestly fits, as Sonic has been a lot better in other media, the games have been mediocre, besides lack of sales.

 

Actually, Sonic Forces sold very well. We don't have official numbers, but according to VGChartz, Forces sold about 1,6 million copies. This website only estimates physical sales. Nowadays the digital market has become bigger than the physical, because of that, VGChartz stopped estimating software sales in 2018. So, it's possible to tell that Sonic Forces sold at least 2 million copies. It's not a weak number, it's on the average of Sonic 3D sales per game. Sonic Colors, for example, sold 1,8 million copies and it's considered a successful game.

A couple of years ago, Sega stopped revealing total sales numbers for their games in their financial reports, but they said "Sonic Forces performed strongly".

I don't know why people think Forces sold poorly if we don't have official numbers proving that. We only know that Forces sold poorly on Steam, but it's only one platform the game was released and the Steam version had optimization problems. Sonic Forces wasn't well-received on Metacritic, but a lot of Sonic modern games weren't and still sold well.


Sonic Lost World sold poorly, but because it was a Wii U exclusive, even Mario 3D World had weaker sales compared to other 3D Mario games (it's the worst selling 3D Mario game of all time).

Team Sonic Racing probably sold well, too. We also don't have official total sales number, but in the first week it sold much better than ASR Transformed in the UK. 

 

Quote

"UK charts: Team Sonic Racing laps the competition

Sega's kart racer is first Sonic game to top charts in 11 years as Rage 2 slides a few spots in its second week

According to the UK Boxed Charts report for the week ending May 25th, Team Sonic Racing toped the All Formats Chart, more than doubling the launch week sales of its predecessor, 2012's Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed. (...)"

Source: https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2019-05-27-uk-charts-team-sonic-racing-laps-the-competition


Sonic is bigger in the US, but it seems that Sonic Forces sold well in Japan, because on the PS4 version the online rankings are full of japanese players. Also, Sonic Forces was well-received in the Japanese media. Famitsu, for example, gave it a high score.

I don't know why Sega made Sonic Forces with lower budget, we only can speculate. I think it's probably because Sonic Forces was developed during Sega restructuring process (it happened in 2015), and probably because Sega didn't know what direction to move forward with the franchise after Sonic Lost World and Boom (only my hypothesis).

Mario and Sonic Tokyo 2020 hasn't sold poorly, too. Actually, the Mario and Sonic series has always sold like water and the new Sonic at the Olympic Games for mobile phones clearly has a high budget.

 

Quote

Games flops = smaller games with less resources

Which honestly fits, as Sonic has been a lot better in other media, the games have been mediocre, besides lack of sales.

The success of the Sonic movie will bring more demand and money for the other medias as well, even the games. Iron Man comics were weaker before the Marvel movies. After, it became one of the biggest-selling comic books series they have nowadays.

 

Quote

It sucks if you're a fan of the video games, but it wouldn't shock me if Sega tries to put more focus on Sonic as a multimedia franchise than just a video game one; the movie is literally the most successful piece of media the series has produced, and it's not related to the video games at all outside of the characters. And the games tend to sell regardless of their quality because Sonic, the character, is just that popular to sell on his name alone. 

Sonic have been always a multimedia franchise. There have always been comics books and cartoons. The IDW comics series is going strongly, but they aren't as big as the games at all. Currently, the series is selling about 10k per issue (similar number to Archie series in the 2000s), but a single Sonic game usually sell more than 1 million copies, even Sonic Forces.

According to Sega, the video games are still the strongest pillar of Sonic franchise.

Edited by Raphael Martins
I added more comments and corrected the grammar.

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3 hours ago, Shadowlax said:

VG chartz is not a reliable source at all.

The only sources about Sonic Forces sales are VGChartz and Sega. VGChartz said the game sold 1.6 Million physical copies, Sega said It "performed strongly".

 

There's no other source, so we can't assume the game sold poorly without having its sales data.

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1 minute ago, Raphael Martins said:

There's no other source, so we can't assume the game sold poorly without having its sales data.

You cannot assume that the game sold well either, so it's a big mystery in there

Like people said, VGChartz is NOT a reliable source of information, now i don't have any sources but i remember that VGC got caught in more occasions than one guessing their numbers, so the 1.6m you are looking at it's probably an estimate rather than a clear, provable number.

So the only thing you can rely upon is SEGA saying that Forces performed strongly, but i would take this statement with a grain of salt.

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4 minutes ago, Raphael Martins said:

The only sources about Sonic Forces sales are VGChartz and Sega. VGChartz said the game sold 1.6 Million physical copies, Sega said It "performed strongly".

 

There's no other source, so we can't assume the game sold poorly without having its sales data.

Just because there are no other source doesn't make VGChartz reliable. They are known just to lie.

Sega said it preformed well. So yeah basically you have no source or context as to how the game did until sega puts it in a portfolio they use in like investor stuff. Otherwise, we just don't know outside " Sega said it did ok" and that can mean anything

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I also take umbrage with the "it sold well in Japan" comment, because unlike over here, Famitsu actually does provide exact sales figures for games - and while technically Forces was the highest sales debut for a Sonic game since 06, that doesn't mean much when the game only moved 10,000 copies in its first week. 

Image

(This top 10 only shows the PS4 version sales)

Not 100,000, 10,000.  As the others have said, using VGChartz because it's 'the only source' is foolish when it's also a wrong source. I could be the only person to say "Sonic 3D Blast sold 4 million copies", but that doesn't mean it's not a number I pulled out of my ass, or that it should be taken as fact because nobody else has a number to give.

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52 minutes ago, Shadowlax said:

Just because there are no other source doesn't make VGChartz reliable. They are known just to lie.

Sega said it preformed well. So yeah basically you have no source or context as to how the game did until sega puts it in a portfolio they use in like investor stuff. Otherwise, we just don't know outside " Sega said it did ok" and that can mean anything

If there are no other sources about Sonic Forces sales data, why is everbody saying it sold poorly?

Also, Sega said the game "performed strongly" in their financial report.

 

Quote

You cannot assume that the game sold well either, so it's a big mystery in there

Like people said, VGChartz is NOT a reliable source of information, now i don't have any sources but i remember that VGC got caught in more occasions than one guessing their numbers, so the 1.6m you are looking at it's probably an estimate rather than a clear, provable number.

 

VGChartz has always said they provide estimated numbers, not clear. They use estatistics.

We cannot say for sure that the game sold well, but according to these estimates and Sega's own information it makes no sense to conclude that it sold poorly.

 

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27 minutes ago, Raphael Martins said:

VGChartz has always said they provide estimated numbers, not clear. They use estatistics.

We cannot say for sure that the game sold well, but according to these estimates and Sega's own information it makes no sense to conclude that it sold poorly.

They're not estimates, they're pulled out of their arse. Note that VGChartz offers no source of any kind for their information - so how are they estimating it? Throwing darts at a board of numbers and going with whatever it lands on? They might as well be. 

Also I probably don't need to tell you this, but "estatistics" is not a word.

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6 minutes ago, Tracker_TD said:

They're not estimates, they're pulled out of their arse. Note that VGChartz offers no source of any kind for their information - so how are they estimating it? Throwing darts at a board of numbers and going with whatever it lands on? They might as well be. 

Also I probably don't need to tell you this, but "estatistics" is not a word.

English is not my first language, I'm Brazilian.

Ok, but still doesn't make sense to assume Sonic Forces sold poorly If Sega said in their financial report that It "performed strongly". In the recent years, Sega stopped revealing sales data for their games. In this financial report they didn't reveal sales of any other game.

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I'll strait up admit to you, my thoughts on it doing poorly are based on two factors

1) sega being unwilling to talk about how well it did in detail in comparison to mania

2) how poor the game was, was apparent and memes from the jump. And after years of declining sales from lapses in quality I assume the sales declined even further.

I have no official knowledge of sales, I'm just kind if looking at things and going with how I feel. But I'll tell you that vgchartz wont

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1 hour ago, Shadowlax said:

I'll strait up admit to you, my thoughts on it doing poorly are based on two factors

1) sega being unwilling to talk about how well it did in detail in comparison to mania

2) how poor the game was, was apparent and memes from the jump. And after years of declining sales from lapses in quality I assume the sales declined even further.

I have no official knowledge of sales, I'm just kind if looking at things and going with how I feel. But I'll tell you that vgchartz wont

Sonic 2006 is probably the worst main game of the series and it sold more than 2 million copies.

Sonic Forces being a bad game doesn't mean it sold badly.

How you feel about the game doesn't prove anything, you can only speculate.

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Hey, good news, I found more exact sales numbers for Sonic Forces.

Bad news, that's the salesnumbers for Sonic Forces and every other Sega game released around the same time.

https://www.gamereactor.eu/sega-is-pleased-with-sonic-forces-sales/

So in the third quarter of the fiscal year, they sold 14.3 copies of games in retail. But that's including all games, the article specifically mentions Sonic Forces, Football Manager 2018 and Yakuza Kiwami 2. That article uses this report as a source, so have fun combing this one out for relevant information;

https://www.segasammy.co.jp/english/ir/library/pdf/settlement/2018/20180207_3q_siryo_e_final.pdf

I can't even find the 14.3 m copies statement in there. It does mention that Sonic Mania, Hokuto Ga Gotoku, Total War: Warhammer 2 and Valkyria Chronicles 4 were also sold that quarter and are persumingly included in the 14 million number. So 7 games sharing 14 million copies, so give or take 2 million per game depending on how popular each is.
Also I'm not sure if this includes digital sales. It specifically says "retail" so I guess not. That would explain why Mania isn't mentioned among the main titles.

So now we can put on our detective hats and try and figure out if any of the other games have their salesnumbers mentioned anywhere. Joy.
Quickly searching around I find that Football manager 2018 had 1.2 million players in June, so at least that many copies sold (But does June still count as part of the Q3 sales Sega had?) I looked for WarHammer 2 salesnumbers but either get how much it sold on it's first day alone, or how the entire series in total sold and krrggrrr-

Sorry, my brain crashed. It's not made for this sort of thing.

One thing I CAN tell you is that you don't have to worry about Sega doing well, appearently they are the 4th richest game company in the world:
http://www.thedailyrecords.com/2018-2019-2020-2021/world-famous-top-10-list/highest-selling-brands-products-companies-reviews/richest-video-game-companies-world-designers/16289/?fbclid=IwAR3iIML0wS0apa2vvN_3dmw3SktiuRMYV2DhmlackqxFPvAHftbKP3wr87s

I did not expect that, I wasn't even expecting them in the top 20. And this was before the Sonic Movie's release. (....But also before the virus outbreak that's crushing Disney now.)
Pretty sure it's their pachino and other entertainment doing more of the heavy lifting then the games, but still. Seeing them listed on top of Activision and Blizzard looks surreal to me. In fact, with nintendo, Sony and Xbox on top, it seems all the (Ex) main Console manufacters are the top dogs. Only Atari missing out.

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2 hours ago, Roger_van_der_weide said:

Hey, good news, I found more exact sales numbers for Sonic Forces.

Bad news, that's the salesnumbers for Sonic Forces and every other Sega game released around the same time.

https://www.gamereactor.eu/sega-is-pleased-with-sonic-forces-sales/

So in the third quarter of the fiscal year, they sold 14.3 copies of games in retail. But that's including all games, the article specifically mentions Sonic Forces, Football Manager 2018 and Yakuza Kiwami 2. That article uses this report as a source, so have fun combing this one out for relevant information;

https://www.segasammy.co.jp/english/ir/library/pdf/settlement/2018/20180207_3q_siryo_e_final.pdf

I can't even find the 14.3 m copies statement in there. It does mention that Sonic Mania, Hokuto Ga Gotoku, Total War: Warhammer 2 and Valkyria Chronicles 4 were also sold that quarter and are persumingly included in the 14 million number. So 7 games sharing 14 million copies, so give or take 2 million per game depending on how popular each is.
Also I'm not sure if this includes digital sales. It specifically says "retail" so I guess not. That would explain why Mania isn't mentioned among the main titles.

So now we can put on our detective hats and try and figure out if any of the other games have their salesnumbers mentioned anywhere. Joy.
Quickly searching around I find that Football manager 2018 had 1.2 million players in June, so at least that many copies sold (But does June still count as part of the Q3 sales Sega had?) I looked for WarHammer 2 salesnumbers but either get how much it sold on it's first day alone, or how the entire series in total sold and krrggrrr-

Sorry, my brain crashed. It's not made for this sort of thing.

One thing I CAN tell you is that you don't have to worry about Sega doing well, appearently they are the 4th richest game company in the world:
http://www.thedailyrecords.com/2018-2019-2020-2021/world-famous-top-10-list/highest-selling-brands-products-companies-reviews/richest-video-game-companies-world-designers/16289/?fbclid=IwAR3iIML0wS0apa2vvN_3dmw3SktiuRMYV2DhmlackqxFPvAHftbKP3wr87s

I did not expect that, I wasn't even expecting them in the top 20. And this was before the Sonic Movie's release. (....But also before the virus outbreak that's crushing Disney now.)
Pretty sure it's their pachino and other entertainment doing more of the heavy lifting then the games, but still. Seeing them listed on top of Activision and Blizzard looks surreal to me. In fact, with nintendo, Sony and Xbox on top, it seems all the (Ex) main Console manufacters are the top dogs. Only Atari missing out.

Probably, Sega gave more attention to Sonic Mania performance because the game had a lower budget than Sonic Forces, but sold almost the same making it more profitable.

This doesn't mean Forces sold badly. It seems It sold on the average of 3D Sonic games.

People think Sega is a small company because in this last decade most of their games and successful franchises weren't in the US.

But, in Japan Sega is way bigger. For example, Phantasy Star Online 2 has 5,5 Million players only there (according to Sega's 60th anniversary website), they have Valkyria Chronicles, Puyo Puyo, Hatsune Miku, Yakuza, other small franchises such as 7th Dragon, and they also own Persona and Megami Tensei. They just revived Sakura Wars that's a big franchise in Japan, too. The original Saturn game is huge successful there.

Sega is the owner of TMS (anime studio) and Marza Animation Planet (the CGI animation studio of RE Vendetta and the FFXV movie).

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Sonic the Hedgehog
@sonic_hedgehog
·
Apr 15: With the world in its current state, and to keep our teams safe, we need to wait to show you our SXSW content until things have settled.

Thanks for your patience, and we'll let you know as soon as we have a date to share!

I am much more excited and hyped for whatever they are in the midst of creating, due to this decision!!  It is still very ambiguous, but if it wasn't something significant, they would have gone ahead with the plan to redo the presentation this month. 

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Enough talk about future game predictions. Let's talk about a possible cartoon.

It's been rumored for some time, in 2018, after the success of Mania Adventures, one of the producers from Neko (who produced the shorts as well as Sonic Boom) slipped there was a new animation in the world with hahstags of Sonic, Tails, Knuckles and Amy, which could have been either the SMA Christmas Special or TSR Overdrive too. Who knows. But then in 2019 in various instagram posts, Jakks Pacific presented a new toyline for Sonic, both classic and modern, explicitly said it was in cross-promotion for a new cartoon. Later, after fans noticed it, they corrected the posts, maybe it was not correct or they were referring to the shorts? They weren't tied to TSR though. The only game of the moment. 

So it's really unconfirmed at this point if a new cartoon will happen, it's just a guess with a few indicators, besides there edited posts and assumed leaks:

Usually they tie toy lines to games or cartoons, for cross-promotion, happened in both cases with Boom. They also tie short animations to every game, like Mania Plus and Team Sonic Racing. The 2 Christmas Specials were the only ones that weren't necessarily tied to anything, even though we speculate Chao in Space was to hint at their presence in a new game.

Also, the shorts are highly popular, with millions of views, they might just be the most watched official Sonic videos on social media, Sega knows people love them and are begging for a full series, there is a lot of demand in fact.

So, not confirmed but really likely, the real question is... Classic or Modern?

At this point I have no idea, Jakks made toys both Classic and Modern toys for different lines. They didn't specify if there was a specific one for the mentioned cartoon. It's anyone's guess at this point, really.

My thoughts? If as you guys said, there is NO new Classic game coming soon (sadly), I doubt they might have to promote anything with it, I mention Boom, that was the last attempt at cross-promoting games, merch and a TV show. If the next game(s) is/are really Modern Sonic, it's that. 

To be honest, I kinda hope it is Modern, richer worlds, bigger cast who is long overdue for something to do, and Modern Sonic actually talks and is more fit for dialogues IMO. Classic Sonic may or may not talk, to avoid the question, Sega might prefer to use Modern in a full TV show. If that's what we are getting.

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I doubt it'll take 6 months. I'd bet a pretty penny we'll get news by the summer. No later than that. Whatever content or concepts they were going to show, they are still beyond that point in development even if things have slowed. So they'll just have to rework and update their marketing. 

The actual game release could be delayed longer than that for sure. 

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Probably, Sega's offices are closed due to quarantine, it will affect the development time of the games and consequently, its release date. So, it's a better decision to delay the announcement and the release.

The entertainment business is having problems because the economic is bad and the entertainment is the first sector to suffer in a crisis like this. Maybe it's not a good time to announce or launch a new game.

 

19 hours ago, Jack at Home said:

Enough talk about future game predictions. Let's talk about a possible cartoon.

It's been rumored for some time, in 2018, after the success of Mania Adventures, one of the producers from Neko (who produced the shorts as well as Sonic Boom) slipped there was a new animation in the world with hahstags of Sonic, Tails, Knuckles and Amy, which could have been either the SMA Christmas Special or TSR Overdrive too. Who knows. But then in 2019 in various instagram posts, Jakks Pacific presented a new toyline for Sonic, both classic and modern, explicitly said it was in cross-promotion for a new cartoon. Later, after fans noticed it, they corrected the posts, maybe it was not correct or they were referring to the shorts? They weren't tied to TSR though. The only game of the moment. 

So it's really unconfirmed at this point if a new cartoon will happen, it's just a guess with a few indicators, besides there edited posts and assumed leaks:

Usually they tie toy lines to games or cartoons, for cross-promotion, happened in both cases with Boom. They also tie short animations to every game, like Mania Plus and Team Sonic Racing. The 2 Christmas Specials were the only ones that weren't necessarily tied to anything, even though we speculate Chao in Space was to hint at their presence in a new game.

Also, the shorts are highly popular, with millions of views, they might just be the most watched official Sonic videos on social media, Sega knows people love them and are begging for a full series, there is a lot of demand in fact.

So, not confirmed but really likely, the real question is... Classic or Modern?

At this point I have no idea, Jakks made toys both Classic and Modern toys for different lines. They didn't specify if there was a specific one for the mentioned cartoon. It's anyone's guess at this point, really.

My thoughts? If as you guys said, there is NO new Classic game coming soon (sadly), I doubt they might have to promote anything with it, I mention Boom, that was the last attempt at cross-promoting games, merch and a TV show. If the next game(s) is/are really Modern Sonic, it's that. 

To be honest, I kinda hope it is Modern, richer worlds, bigger cast who is long overdue for something to do, and Modern Sonic actually talks and is more fit for dialogues IMO. Classic Sonic may or may not talk, to avoid the question, Sega might prefer to use Modern in a full TV show. If that's what we are getting.

 

I would love both options: a classic sonic focused cartoon or a modern one. I just want a new cartoon more close to the games, and hate Sonic Boom.

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7 hours ago, Raphael Martins said:

Probably, Sega's offices are closed due to quarantine, it will affect the development time of the games and consequently, its release date. So, it's a better decision to delay the announcement and the release.

The entertainment business is having problems because the economic is bad and the entertainment is the first sector to suffer in a crisis like this. Maybe it's not a good time to announce or launch a new game.

 

 

I would love both options: a classic sonic focused cartoon or a modern one. I just want a new cartoon more close to the games, and hate Sonic Boom.

I agree it will be delayed, I just don't think it will be 6 months. I predict many businesses will start operating again in some capacity around the summer, probably before the 4th of July but definitely some time in the summer window. They're not going to wait out the duration of corona because that would mean waiting for a vaccine and that could take more than a year. Not going to happen. Besides, I suspect that whatever was going to be shown at SXSW was not a full game reveal. Probably just a teaser. The other content, maybe a reveal of something. A new cartoon, blah blah. 

The actual game dev and release will most probably be moved back though. 

 

Side note: does anyone else think it might be a good idea for SEGA to release some info about their next big project during quarantine? Hear me out on this one: everyone is sitting at home right now. Everyone. Even though this is a crisis, many people still need entertainment to. Look forward to to take their minds off of their struggle. It's important to them. And because of this some companies are taking advantage. 

For instance, the 90s Michael Jordan documentary was pushed up from its initial June release, to April of this year. Because they know people want something to watch and to take their minds off of the crisis, something else to talk about when there's really not much going on. It's going to pay off enormously, pretty much everyone in the sports world is talking about the documentary right now and it premieres tonight. It's going to have massive viewership. 

Gotta be honest, I'd strongly be considering this if I were SEGA. Even if it's just a snippet of something, this is a time to build initial hype of something in the minds of the general public, everybody is listening. No brainer in my opinion. 

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Might be nothing but Ryan Drummond tweeted this.

EDIT: Almost immediately after posting this I saw this.

So it's probably like that video they did for Tails Birthday a few years ago. My bad.

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