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Bank Analyst Believes Nintendo is Set for A Fall


AdventChild

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Bank Analyst Satoru Kikuchi believes N is gonna fall in the next few months.

To Fall or Not to Fall?

Deutsche Bank analyst Satoru Kikuchi believes that Nintendo is headed for a fall. Though Nintendo has dominated the business with its DS and Wii consoles, Kikuchi thinks that its days of ridiculous profitability are numbered. Gamesindustry.biz has reported:

"Satoru Kikuchi, has assigned a sell rating to Nintendo's stock, claiming the company has hit its peak and faces a downwards trend. While he expects Nintendo to report profits this month in excess of guidance, he predicts a decline in profits of 18 percent the following year, and a further 19 per cent in 2011 'as sales slow'."

While DS and Wii sales will eventually slow down as the market gets saturated, that doesn't appear to be happening any time soon. Kikuchi's argument is based on the dubious phrase "if content remains unchanged." That just seems silly to me. Both platforms will have plenty of new content, both from Nintendo and third-party publishers. Kikuchi didn't mention the DSi either; Nintendo's latest handheld has done very well in Japan and is hitting other territories soon. Kikuchi's rating seems a bit flimsy to me.

Do you guys and gals agree? Is Nintendo set for a major fall in the next few months? Or will its sales dominance continue?

Agree or not? Eh, N is selling big with the Wii and DS lately so I kinda doubt it. Yet even so, I'm guessing Sony and MS might fall as well with their fair share of troubles recently with the bad economy so no surprise there.

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The general idea (one that quite a few gaming publications had come to as well) is that Nintendo has a larger chance of losing big, and that they will lose bigger, than Sony and Microsoft because the Wii (and to a far lesser extent, the DS) demographic is generally less interested in games then the 360/PS3 crowd; and will be less apt to spend money on games then PS3 and 360 owners if they become short on cash (also related to how much money was invested in buying the system in the first place).

While 360/PS3 sales will undoubtedly take a hit, it will be a more gradual one and can be balanced out by the gaming divisions being only small parts of the two companies; whereas when Nintendo sales drop off they will fall off the face of the Earth. Also, "Content Remains Unchanged" doesn't really mean "no new games" so much as it means a variation of "less Waggle bullshit," which is something incredibly clairvoyant for a financial analyst to say but nonetheless a very strong possibility.

Furthermore, the DSi can go either way in export countries, and it is a grave mistake on Nintendo's part to simply assume that it will be a success outside of Japan (as that article seems to do).

Edited by Tornado
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^Had a similar thought. If the fall does hit and hits big, it will possibly be a wake up call drop the whole casual act and try to appeal to the hardcore fans, but still might not be enough, if 3rd parties aren't taking the development to the games too seriously. Well, I still wish N most of luck that they find a escape route out of this, but it might be the end for the casual charade.

Eh, idk. We'll have to wait and see.

Edited by AdventChild
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I would agree with this prediction. The backlash from the hardcore community is starting to catch up to the Wii. Even games like MadWorld won’t keep them happy for long. Not to mention the novelty of motion sensitive and pointer gaming is starting to ware-off, especially so in thanks to the large amount of shovel-ware bombarding the console.

I also expect Nintendo’s market share to slide a bit. Sony and Microsoft are bound to make price cuts or offer better deals on their consoles, and the Wii will eventually stop selling (at such a high rate) to compensate for them. I also don’t think the DSi will be nearly as large as the DS was internationally. I still feel like my DS is rather new and I wont be looking to the DSi anytime soon. Its also has stiffer competition with the Iphone infringing on its territory and such.

I expect Nintendo to slide a bit, Microsoft to gain a little and a small surge for Sony.

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Maybe they'll look to hardcore gamers in their time of need *punched*

Because that went so well for them in the N64 and GCN days.

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I actually think it's going to see a large fail for the simple reason that the people who have made it sell well, i.e. people who would not consider themselves to be 'video gamers.' Only play 3 games.

* Wii sports

* Wii-Fit.

* And... (Insert random crappy title that most gamers would avoid).

This is the DS...

* Random brain training game.

* Random Mario title.

* Professor thingy's curious village/that detective dude's game.

Just about half the floor at the place where I work owns a wii, including me... The only games they play are wii-fit. Even tough they have other titles for it, they just don't play them, they say they're not interested, they say and I quote "I just want to get fit, and it tells you your BMI and everything"

I do wonder if one of these scientists/analysts would do a study to see if theres a link between fat levels and wii owner ship. Because from what I see, wii's are selling so well because the non videogamer is under the impression that it's going to make them look thin and prim.

Now speaking for myself, I've not touched my wii in a year, theres just nothing on it that appeals to me, even my house of the dead the return, I've not touched the third house of the dead game despite never playing it in the arcades! R.E. Umbrella chronicles sit unfinished, as does Sonic and secret rings (but I find that god awful anyway...) For me theres utterly nothing on it to interest me at all... even dead rising which I would love to play is a shocking title, even when you don't compare it to the original.

My DS however... that gets so much more love than my wii. Mainly it's Phoenix Wright titles and sonic rush 1 & 2. Along with two brain training games... But thats because they appeal to me so much more than anything that the wii has out right now or in the near future.

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I will say that this month is the best month in like ever for DS games, and the amount of quality stuff this month alone should at least last until Autumn.

Edited by Tornado
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Here's the thing about the Wii: Most of the people who buy it bought it and never play it. Do you think these people will buy a Wii successor?

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Even though Wii sales might go down a bit in the following months, the DS is as strong as ever. Enter DSi, add some more Brain Training stuff, get profit. Non-gamers, as I call them, who still don't have a DS, say "I want one.", they seek out and buy the newest model (DSi) even though they don't know shit about it and just play brain trainers or mahjongg, and there you go, DSi is a succes outside of Japan too. Add to that the fact that some titles that actually appeal to gamers do occasionally come out for DS.

No, I don't see Nintendo falling in a dark pit of recession just yet.

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What people aren't factoring in here is Wii Sports Resort and whatever else Nintendo's cooking up for the casual market. Regardless of the economic climate, things like that are always going to be a big seller.

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* Wii sports

* Wii-Fit.

* And... (Insert random crappy title that most gamers would avoid).

That'll be the horrendous hellspawn, Carnival Games, if Official Nintendo Magazine's constant in-jokes about how bad it is/how well it sells are anything to go by. And the fact that 50% of the time I've been to Gamestation I've seen someone walking out with a copy or, better scenario, walking in with one.

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Sony have been in the red for a long time.. but I guess it always can get worse.

Tornado, that's the best frigg'n avatar I've ever seen... Kelloggs vs Capcom... I guess it's the only company left :D

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